Tag Archives: Dalton

Dalton dodges most of the rain

A particularly virulent area of low pressure developing over the southeastern US promised to bring heavy rain to the east coast as this week began. It sure did! The thing is, all that rain fell everywhere BUT Dalton, where we issued a forecast on Saturday. I mean, there was some rain in northern Georgia, but only a splash reached the rain gauge in Dalton. It still verified as rain, and everyone got a point for getting that part of the forecast correct. It came down to the temperature forecasts, and the best belonged to Accuweather.
Actuals: Sunday – High 77, Low 50
Monday – .03 inches of rain, High 69, Low 51

Grade: B-D

Dalton, Georgia

We have time for a second forecast on this beautiful Saturday, and we will take it to Dalton, north of Atlanta. In our forecast for Hartford, we previewed an active Monday down in Georgia, so let’s see just how it plays out.

At 815PM, ET, Dalton was reporting a temperature of 61 degrees with clear skies. A sharp ridge of high pressure remains in place across the Eastern Seaboard and will ensure that the weekend will stay pleasant and dry. A sharp trough over the Plains will start moving to the east through the day, resulting in some clouds filtering into the region by late in the day on Sunday.
The trough is quite sharp, but is being drawn to the north by the mean flow. As a result, the base of the trough will extricate from the main trough, and become more independent late in the day tomorrow, and a surface low will attempt to organize by Monday morning. Expect heavy rain to arrive in the early morning, just in time to slow down rush hour, but the cut off low will begin working to reassociate with the mean flow and will move through quickly. Expect the evening rush on Monday to be back to normal.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with increasing clouds. High 78, Low 53
Monday – Heavy rain and thunder early, then clearing for the afternoon, HIgh 66, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – A mix of clouds and sun early, then becoming cloudy later in the day. High 76, Low 55
Monday -Showers and thundershowers in the morning, then cloudy with rain, heavy at times in the afternoon. High 67, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sun High 77, Low 54
Monday – A couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm; cloudy and not as warm but humid; watch for flooding High 68, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, (showers late) High 76, Low 56
Monday – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall High 70, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 76, Low 56
Monday – Chance of thunderstorms, showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible,, High 66, Low 54

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 56
Monday – Mostly cloudy with heavy showers, High 70,, Low 65

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. HIgh 76, Low 57
Monday – Heavy rain starting overnight, continuing until evening. HIgh 67, Low 55

It sounds as though it will be getting a bit nasty as the work week starts, but at least the weekend will end on a nice note. Here is satellite from the University of Illinois, with isobars to show you were that southern low is developing.

A smothering pull of moisture

An area of low pressure that ultimately led to a few tornadoes around the Ozarks yesterday was actually centered in the northern Plains. Circulation associated with the low dragged warm, moist air north through the southeastern United States. It was exciting for those who forecast rain in Dalton, because as we neared the verifying time, it looked more and more likely that there would be rain in Dalton. It was just as rainy as guidance suggested on Thursday, but as it turned out, most of the rain ended up falling east of Dalton. There was only a smattering of rain in Dalton, but the real effect was the low clouds. They prevented temperatures from even reaching 70, which only one outlet had anticipated. That was Forecast.io, who ended up earning the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 75, Low 51
Thursday – .02 High 68, Low 46

Grade: C-D

Dalton, Georgia

Looking at the latest outlook from the SPC, I would say that the month will be going out like a lion in the south today. What does the forecast hold in Dalton?

At 1235PM, ET, Dalton was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with sunny skies. The winds that are being seen towards Atlanta are not afflicting the hills in the northern part of the state, and it’s quite pleasant in north Georgia at the moment. There is a threat for severe storms today in the Peach State, but it is largely confined to the west central part of the state.
The threat for convection is largely due to a fairly small perturbation in an otherwise laminar flow through the southern Plains. There is a jet streak running from the northern part of Lousiana southeast through south Georgia and north Florida that reflects a air mass boundary, and will guide thunderstorms this afternoon. Dalton remains north of this boundary, which isn’t well reflected at the surface, and as the wave in Texas starts to cycle warm, moist air north towards the boundary, thunderstorms will stall just south of the forecast city. There will be showers tonight and likely into tomorrow morning. An area of low pressure in the north Atlantic will drag the boundary south tomorrow afternoon, bringing a bit of a reprieve to the area tomorrow night in Thursday morning. A more traditional trough moving through the Upper Midwest will usher the Texas wave eastward on Thursday afternoon, where it is liable to trigger a few isolated thunderstorms in the evening, particularly as it becomes enriched by southerly flow induced by the much stronger northern feature.
Tomorrow – Morning showers, High 72, Low 49
Thursday – Afternoon thunderstorms possible, High 74, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow- Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 51
Thursday – Rain, High 75, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 74, Low 49
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 72, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, (early showers) High 78, Low 47
Thursday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny.(early showers) High 78, Low 47
Thursday – Chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning…Then showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 72, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny (early showers) High 79, Low 46
Thursday – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers High 72, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning.High 73, Low 49
Thursday – Light rain until evening. High 69, Low 56

Quite the disparity in temperature forecasts and temperature trends. It will be very interesting to see how it plays out. You can see the burgeoning thunderstorms over northern Mississippi.
Dalton

Sprinkles in the South

I was expecting Dalton to get a bit more precip than they did, even though they reported light rain both days. Temperatures didn’t drop quite as much as most expected, keeping any time of mixed precip scenarios at bay. Victoria Weather and the Weather Channel tied for the victory

Sunday: 0.01″ of rain. High 46, Low 37.
Monday: Trace of rain. High 41, Low 32.
Forecast Grade: B

Dalton, Georgia

Tonight we head off to northern Georgia, where the weather has been active as of late. Will we see some more of the same to finish off the weekend, or will they get a bit of a reprieve?

At 1135pm EDT, the temperature at Dalton, GA was 41 degrees with light rain falling. The tail end of a cold front is pushing its way through the Southern Appalachians and the Deep South, bringing a plume of rain and some thunderstorms with it as it pushes through there the region. Some rain will stick around for the early morning hours on Monday in the area, giving way to a bit of a lull during midday. Meanwhile, another impulse that’s developing over the Southern Plains will be bringing some unwanted wintry weather to portions of Oklahoma and Texas. This activity will shift eastward along the base of a strong dome of high pressure (that will be parking itself over the Dakotas/Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday) and eventually bring another round of precip to the Dalton area. Temperatures look to drop enough that some rain/snow mix could affect the area Monday morning, although heavier precip should stay off to the south. Precip shifts off to the east by the mid afternoon hours, making for a fairly quiet drive home, albeit colder than normal.

Sunday: Morning rain showers, redeveloping for late afternoon/evening. High 49, Low 37.
Monday: Early morning rain/snow mix, drying out by afternoon. High 39, Low 29.

TWC: Sunday: Light rain and fog. High 46, Low 38.
Monday: Few isolated showers. High 38, Low 28.

AW: Sunday: Mostly cloudy, a little rain, High 49, Low 41.
Monday: Colder with clouds and sun. High 40, Low 31.

NWS: Sunday: Showers likely. High 49, Low 38.
Monday: Chance of rain/snow mix. High 38, Low 27.

WB: Sunday: Rain. High 47, Low 37.
Monday: Some morning rain showers, then partly sunny. High 40, Low 24.

WN: Sunday: Cloudy with showers likely. High 50, Low 34.
Monday: Partly cloudy with slight chance of light wintry mix. High 37, Low 27.

FIO: Sunday: Mixed precip in morning and evening. High 48, Low 38.
Monday: Light rain/snow/sleet mix in morning, then cloudy during the day. High 37, Low 27.

Here we see a plume of rain shifting through the region. This will continue to affect the area over the next couple of days, with perhaps some flakes mixed in as well.
DaltonRAD

We’ll post this late at night and hope nobody notices

So, Dalton. Dalton, Georgia. We tried to forecast for the northwest Georgia town back on Saturday. Tried. Failed. We all had highs in the low 50s for Sunday, anticipating similar continues as they had been seeing for days on end. That didn’t happen. Instead, a southerly flow brought daytime clouds to the town, which meant temperatures didn’t even climb out of the 30s. That’s not even close. Really bad. Really, really awful. To cap it off, this led to a slow start on Monday as well, and the closest anyone got of the high was within 7 degrees. Oh, and there was a little rain as well, which not everyone had, because not everyone anticipated the rain getting there so soon. All the way around, bad forecast. Accuweather gets the win, though. Way to be less terrible!
Actuals: Sunday – High 39, Low 32
Monday – .01 inches of rain, High 51, Low 30

Grade: D

Cincinnati, Ohio to Dalton, Georgia

Hey! Let’s squeeze in a road trip tomorrow, shall we? I’m somewhat surprised to say that this is going to be an under 6 hour trip covering only 375 miles. That will put us at a pace of 65mph through the mountains of Appalachia. I guess we had might as well get this thing started.

cincinnati

There is a cool high pressure over the southeastern part of the country, with warmer, moister flow riding the back end of the ridge. That means a lot of fog and drizzle in the Plains, and some of it will be working east through the Great Lakes. It won’t spread south into Cincinnati, not as damp as it is in the Midwest, but that’s as close as we will get to precipitation on the entire drive. Just a little bit of drizzle in northern Ohio, and that’s about it. It’s going to be a nice, clear sunny drive through the mountains to Dalton.

daltonga

Dalton, Georgia

Hey gang, it was a long day, which means this post is later than I would like them to be. My B.

At 1235AM ET, Dalton was reporting clear skies and a cool 34 degrees. High pressure has dominated the eastern third of the country for the last several days, but a north wind has ensured that temperatures remain unseasonably cool in places like Dalton.
High pressure will remain across the eastern third for the day on Sunday, as well as through most of the day on Monday, however the wave responsible for the significant rain and wind storm on the west coast is moving out of the Rockies. By midmorning Sunday, a surfce area of low pressure will develop in the central High Plains. The low will work eastward through the day Sunday and into Monday. It won’t quite make it to Georgia on Monday, but it will very likely bring a return to warmer temperatures, and eventually some clouds in the afternoon.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 51, Low 30
Monday – Increasing clouds, warmer, High 59, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 55, Low 31
Monday – Mostly cloudy, late showers, High 61, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 51, Low 33
Monday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 58, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny Hgh 54, Low 29
Monday – A 20 percent chance of showers after 3pm. Sunny, High 60, Low 30

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 55, Low 28
Monday – Sunny, High 62, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 54, Low 30
Monday – Mostly Sunny (late rain) Hgh 61, Low 30

Model guidance is all over the map with temperatures. People are generally going with the GFS, which is warmer. Here is the satellite, for no good reason. Should make for an interesting verification.
Dalton

Dalton, Georgia to Albuquerque, New Mexico

Today we embark of a nearly 1400 mile trip from northern GA to the site of Weird Al’s longest song, Albuquerque! Let’s see what’s in store for us on this 3-day trek.

daltonga

DAY ONE

After yesterday’s snowfall, the roads might still be a bit slick as we get our day started, heading northwest towards Nashville. The roads should improve during the day, and with a high pressure ridge building overhead, conditions should be very pleasant throughout the day! It might be a tad windy at times, but nothing that should be worrisome. We continue westward past Memphis and finish the night in Little Rock.

DAY TWO

Today is going to be a long haul, almost 600 miles worth, but luckily it’s all on the same freeway! High pressure continues to take hold over the central US, so while it’ll be a relatively chilly start to the day, conditions throughout the day should very conducive to quick travel! We trek west past Oklahoma City into Amarillo to finish the long day.

DAY THREE

More of the same under high pressure! Should be some morning clouds as a disturbance works south of the route, but conditions should be dry as we head west out of the Texas Panhandle and into Albuquerque to finish our trip!

Albuquerque