Weather Blog

This weekend saw much of the country paralyzed, with millions losing power, thousands of flights canceled, and recovery an ongoing battle. The snow is still actively falling in parts of New England, but the thaw is not ready to move in yet. Everything that was frozen this weekend remains so.

A deep and strong trough has been ebbing and flowing across the eastern two thirds of the country for a couple of weeks now, and at long last, the surae organization matched with what was going on aloft. Low pressure developed in the Southern Plains and was able to tap into Gulf moisture, while at the same time drawing very cold air from the Canadian Prairies.

As we saw with our forecasts in Florence and Rome, several days before the storm set in, there was already cold air in place. The storm, therefore, wasn’t necessarily marked by the great conflict of air masses, but rather the incredible amount of moisture that was able to blanket the country.

The area covered by freshly fallen snow, mapped below with the heaviest totals coming from western Pennsylvania to Massachusetts, is an elongated southwest to northeast line, starting in southern New Mexico and running to New England. It tells the story of the track of the storm, starting in the southern Plains and ending up in the Canadian Maritimes. A “Texas Hooker” to be sure. Snow was measured over two feet in some of the terrain in Pennsylvania, and well over a foot throughout Massachusetts.

A broad area of accumulated ice, pictured below, is found on the southern fringes of this vast area of snow. This is where the most significant damage you have head about is showing up, from northern Mississippi, to Nashville and on to the Carolina Plains. I saw reports of up to 3″ of accumulated ice, which is devastating. Many places saw an inch, which is debilitating in itself.

The map of this storm tells us that much of the destruction was done by a stationary front, which became a weak, meandering warm front. The cold front associated with this rotating area of low pressure had little to do with what the storm wrought. There were several severe thunderstorm reports around the Florida Panhandle, but for all intents and purposes, this was purely a winter storm.

The cold air has of course eventually found it’s way in, and is keeping all these people buried under snow and ice in a deep freeze. For this particular occasion, the cold front has worked to exasperate an existing problem, rather than being the progenitor of the problems. Cold fronts generally have it easier when they want to raise a ruckus, and are pretty expert at it in the summer and spring, when they have warm air to work with. It takes a special blend of cool temperatures, and the right oscillating warm front to cause the havoc that this weekend’s storm did.

For the first time in years, California is not beset by a drought. The primary areas in which drought is ongoing this year are further inland. It’s pretty dry nearly everywhere EXCEPT California, which makes for an interesting change of pace.

In the winter, that means that snow is in a deficit. The way to build that snow pack back up is A) through precipitation, and B) through temperatures remaining cold enough for the snow to generate. For one part of the country, at least, there appear to be the correct ingredients, and it may slake the thirst, at least for a corner of the country. Lets look at the CPC outlooks for both temperature and precipitation.

It looks to me like nearly everyone that expects snow this time of year is going to be in for a healthy dose through March. In particular, the northern Rockies will get to combine below normal temperatures and above normal moisture. Montana ski season is on, baby!

Also of note is the bullseye of above normal precipitation for Indiana. This region is one of the driest in the country right now, and a good drink through spring will do wonders. This part of the world is also cold enough to see snow in the winter, and with the forecast for near normal temperatures, they could certainly see some of this precipitation as a healthy dump of snow.

If you are one of the people that likes snow, then you probably do live in this snow zone, which means the forecast is good news. The snow is coming, just hold on.

We made it a full week before we had a severe weather day here in the US, but our luck has run out. An area of low pressure moving through the Plains started generating severe weather, with a smattering of severe thunderstorm reports and a couple tornados in Oklahoma, including one that hit a farm in Purcell.

You’ll also note several severe storm reports in Illinois on Thursday. These were associated with the tail of a cold front tied to a deep area of low pressure moving earlier today through Labrador. The tail of that front also led to several wind storm reports today south of Rochester, New York.

The real show is in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Low pressure dissipated after yesterday’s storms, but reconstituted over southern Arkansas late in the day. This redeveloped area is tapping into quite a bit of moisture, but also quite a bit of instability, and even now, there are tornado warnings and a tornado watch for northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. These storms are rolling through overnight, which makes it a particularly treacherous scenario.

Fortunately, the system is moving quickly, which will allow it to occlude very quickly, and sap energy from the system. There is going to be a little bit of a carry over into tomorrow, particularly in the morning in areas like central Alabama, but the threat, fortunately, is going to be short lived. With a pattern as active and fast moving as it is, don’t be surprised for more quick hitter storms like this over the next couple of weeks.