2:11PM: The strong polarization on either coast is beginning to break down. It’s not going away, but the the cold anomaly out west is coming back to normal. Still warmer out east, which means precipitation is going to continue to be robust right in the middle of the country. Fortunately, it is needed in this area.
8:31PM After the snow and rain yesterday, it’s looking like the dry spell is going to be concluding rather quickly. Don’t be surprised to see more rain through the week in the Twin Cities… but not tonight. The precipitation that was in the area is dissipating fairly rapidly.
10:35PM: There is a marginal risk for severe weather along the Texas-New Mexico border, but nothing is really panning out right now. This same pattern will make things a bit more interesting this weekend. More severe weather, just like earlier this week, is expected west of the Mississippi from Iowa to Oklahoma. It’s sure been an interesting final third of 2024.
11:58PM Well, it was no Halloween Blizzard, as it was in 1991, but there was snow in Minnesota today. The bullseye was the northwestern side of the Twin Cities metro, where a couple of inches fell. This is anecdotal, I was coming from North Dakota and got to enjoy a wintry blast on the way back home.
2:36PM There is an enhanced risk for severe weather in the center of the country today, which reflects a slow but substantial move towards more seasonal weather. It was 80 yesterday in Minneapolis, and in the low 40s in Bismarck, for example. It’s slow, but the dynamic is there. When I get around to posting forecasts, they promise to be a little bit more interesting.
9:56PM: Are you sick of politics, but still enjoy binary choices of red and blue? Well does the CPC have you covered! High pressure has been running things in the eastern half of the country, but a deep digging trough is moving in out west. That means the temperature outlook is bifurcated.
Unfortunately, just like America, this divide will lead to conflict. Expect storms in the Plains tomorrow, and probably through the week.
The forecast in the middle of October for Binghamton was our first forecast for the season where anyone mentioned snow. It turned out, there were no flakes in Binghamton, but the temperature forecasts were nevertheless quite good. WeatherNation had the top forecast, but nobody should be embarrassed by their output. October 16th – .05 inches of rain, High 46, Low 36 October 17th – High 55, Low 36
10:45PM – It’s an embarrassment of riches in the Twin Cities. Not only was there rain on Thursday, but next week, there is a really good shot at more rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s an abrupt and welcome end to the dry spell.
A lot of the attention for the last month has rightfully been on the southeast where two major hurricanes, Helene and Milton devastated areas from western Virginia to south Florida. Surge and wind were major problems, as always, but this hurricane season is going to be forever remembered for all the rain that fell, and the flooding that ensued.
It seems like I am talking about a different planet, then, when I reference the lack of rain in the middle of the country. But indeed, it is the middle of the same country that has not seen rain for weeks. Minneapolis is working on a top three dry spell, measured by the length of time since their last recorded rainfall. Southern Minnesota and all of South Dakota haven’t seen a drop of rain in a month.
There hasn’t been much rain anywhere in the Plains, which is particularly jarring because this area is adjacent to the part of the country that saw so much. Fortunately, a lot of this area was well hydrated earlier this year, and drought hasn’t yet seized the area in a particularly consequential way.
We are getting deeper into autumn, and by the middle of next week, it will start snowing across the northern tier, including the dry part of the northern Plains. It can’t come soon enough.
We are headed out west for the forecast. British Columbia was on the receiving end of the “atmospheric river” this week. How does that translate a little further south, to Portland?
At 1104AM, PT, Portland was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees with overcast skies. There were lingering low clouds along the Cascades, but clearing at low levels with some insolation. The jet stream was visible on satellite, given some mid layered clouds over Oregon. An upper level trough is off kilter, directed east to west off shore from Oregon. As it comes to alignment with a more zonal flow pattern, cold air will move into western Oregon, and there are freeze warnings in parts of the region. As the trough pivots on land, it is expected to excrete some of it’s moisture over the center of the state, which may include a bit of rain in Portland on Wednesday evening, though most of the activity will be further south, and further inland. Behind this boundary, moist onshore flow will continue from the Pacific, which will lead to a cloudy and fairly dreary Thursday morning, with some breaks in the afternoon. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with a chance of rain in the evening, High 57, Low 43 Thursday – Cloudy early, clearing late. High 59, Low 41
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies, High 58, Low 41 Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 60, Low 41
AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 58, Low 42 Thursday – Mostly cloudy High 59, Low 42
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 57, Low 42 Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 57, Low 40
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then mostly sunny with a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon, High 54, Low 43 Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 55, Low 42
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 54, Low 43 Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 54, Low 42
CLI: Tomorrow – Light Rain showers, High 59, Low 43 Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 43
Not everyone is on board with rain, which makes sense. I think the threat is low, but given the lead time is still over 24 hours, I’m not ready to pull it out of the forecast yet. You can certainly follow the course of the jet stream on the satellite imagery.
Springfield, when we visited at the beginning of the month, was in the midst of a spate of high pressure that kept things pretty dry, and pretty stable. Victoria-Weather followed along with the model guidance, which is pretty reliable when compiling temperature forecasts in a static airmass. We ended up with the top forecast, but really, it should have been much closer. Instead, multiple outlets were 10+ degrees behind us in their score. This was such a straightforward forecast, I thought, so I can’t even tell you what went awry! Actuals: October 7th, High 70, Low 41 October 8th, High 74, Low 38
