I was out of pocket quite a bit this past month, which meant I didn’t post nearly as many forecasts I would have liked. All that said, The Weather Channel was able to use this small sample size to surpass the rest of us competitors ahead of what has already been a busier month. Can they maintain the momentum? Stay tuned to find out.
Unlike yesterday’s verification in Evansville, Glens Falls got exactly what they expected – a healthy smack in the chin from a rainy system that ultimately changed up the air mass in eastern New York. A cold front arrived in town around mid-afternoon on Saturday (thanks for that, Mother Nature) and immediately sank temperatures, before they could get too sweltering. Ultimately, it was a pretty good soaker as well, with over 3/4ths of an inch falling. Victoria-Weather was the top dog in the Empire State. Actuals: Friday, High 80, Low 50 Saturday, .79″ of rain, High 71, Low 54
We have put together a good number of verifications in the last few days, but this will be our last for a bit, so we better make it worth it!
AT 656PM, PT, Visalia was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 97 degrees. Temperatures theoretically should be falling soon, but as near as Hanford was reporting a 99 degree reading. Clear skies will mean a fairly rapid cool down overnight, and dewpoints approaching 60 will lend to some morning haze. Little change is coming at the surface over California, but a jet streak riding under a larger trough in the Gulf of Alaska will bring some high clouds to the Central Valley to start the week. It will be hot on Monday and Tuesday, but keep an eye on that Gulf of Alaska trough to provide a bit of relief late in the week. Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 102, Low 64 Tuesday – Some high clouds, High 99, Low 63
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. Hot. High 104, Low 65 Tuesday – A mainly sunny sky. High 99, Low 62
AW: Tomorrow – Blazing sunshine and hot; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 104, Low 65 Tuesday – Blazing sunshine and hot; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 98, Low 62
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 103, Low 70 Tuesday -Sunny High 99, Low 69
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 72 Tuesday – Sunny, High 97, Low 70
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 72 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 69
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 63 Tuesday – Sunny, High 100, Low 62
The difference in low temperature forecasts is staggering to me. I figured high pressure in the west, we’d all be consistent. More intrigue than I expected!
A short wave rippled through the northern tier, bringing cooler air to a lot of the country late last week. We felt it here in the Upper Midwest, it eventually arrived as far as New England, but it sure didn’t show up during our verification for Evansville. The boundary was supposed to arrive in Evansville on Friday evening, bringing some cooling temperatures and brisk winds. The rain never came, and the temperatures stayed in the 90s instead. Victoria-Weather played down the rain chances, but the Weather Service and Clime had strong temperature forecasts, and anticipated a slow arrival to the cold front. Actuals: Thursday, High 92, Low 65 Friday – High 90, Low 67
We’re going to take a few days to catch up on some other weather stories with our posts this week, and when we get back to forecasts, this is what you can expect.
Road trip from Columbus, Georgia to Manchester, New Hampshire
Road Trip from Manchester to Gulfport, Mississippi
Hello, happy forecast day, and happy game day for you Oregon Ducks fans out there. We will get through this forecast that covers the 48 hours after the game. I have no predictions for today!
AT 1254PM, PT, Eugene was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with mostly cloud skies. Temperatures were certainly warm, but they split the difference between the inland portion of the state, which was sweltering and seeing heat and red flag advisories, and the coast, which has been smothered in the marine layer all day to the is point. Expect temperatures to continue to climb through the day, even if they aren’t going to climb to the levels seen east of the Cascades. A weak wave moving into western Canada will continue to draw some of the moisture off the north Pacific, but the preceding ridge will encourage the heat inland to continue. The dichotomy will mean continued low clouds along the coast in the morning into the early afternoon, preventing Eugene from getting to be unbearable. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and warm, High 83, Low 56 Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 54
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 86, Low 56 Monday – Mostly cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. High 84, Low 54
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 86, Low 57 Monday – Times of clouds and sun High 85, Low 54
NWS: Tomorrow – Widespread haze after 3pm. Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, High 86, Low 58 Monday – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 55
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 59 Monday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 58
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 58 Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 54
Satellite shows some higher clouds in western Oregon, but there is certainly a healthy marine layer in the morning as well.
The radar, showing the band of heavy rain reaching the Hudson alley, is one thing, but don’t sleep on those post frontal winds. It’s howling over the eastern Great Lakes, which is leading to some small craft advisory, beach hazard warnings and even the threat of some lake effect rain later today.
St. Louis was under a dominating ridge of high pressure during our forecast period. Return flow on the west side of the ridge drove temperatures up on Thursday, and nearly everyone handled things exquisitely. Victoria-Weather had a perfect forecast for Wednesday, but things ended up cooler in the morning on Thursday, which opened up the forecast for The Weather Channel to narrowly win. Actuals: Wednesday – High 81, Low 58 Thursday – High 87, Low 55
A bunch of Gulf moisture has led to some of New Orleans western suburbs received up to 4 inches of rain, leading to some flash flooding in the area. Of course, the radar in the area is out, which really throws a wrench in things. Fthe flash flooding was reported on the ground though, and not necessarily by radar indications. Fortunately, Lake Charles and Mobile are up and running, providing coverage for NOLA.
We are headed to beautiful Upstate New York. This is the time of year for the residents to enjoy, before the autumn colors, and after kids are back to school.
At 653PM, ET, Glens Falls was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 70 degrees. Dew points in the 60s and clear skies in the evening suggest some overnight fog or haze, especially over the various lakes of the region. Much of the day tomorrow will continue on with mostly clear skies, though increasing clouds and a congested pattern are certainly inbound. A tropical feature lying northwest of Bermuda is projected to organize a bit and move towards Nova Scotia over the next 2 1/2 days. This is impactful, as for the time being, it is progged to pull in the latent Atlantic Coastal moisture, redirecting it away from a subtropical trough in the northern Tier that is increasing in strength and intensity as well. As the boundary approaches, the tropical feature will move into the Canadian Maritimes, opening up Atlantic moisture for the trough. Rain and some embedded thunderstorms will blossom across the mid-Atlantic, and move into eastern New York by Saturday, in the late afternoon. Rain and storms are possible through the evening, and into the night. By the time the feature reaches New York, it will be occluded, and the chance of overnight stratiform rain is higher as a result. Tomorrow – Morning haze, High 76, Low 50 Saturday – Increasing clouds with rain, and a chance of thunder in the afternoon, High 70, Low 53
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 78, Low 48 Saturday – Cloudy with rain developing later in the day. Thunder possible.
AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 78, Low 47 Saturday – Cloudy and not as warm; a little afternoon rain High 71, Low 58
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 52 Saturday – A slight chance of showers before 2pm, then rain, mainly after 2pm. High 73, Low 59
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 76, Low 54 Saturday – Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the afternoon. High 69, Low 57
WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 78, Low 52 Saturday – Mostly cloudy with light showers, High 71, Low 60
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 48 Saturday – Rain Showers, High 75, Low 56
Satellite shows clear skies on the East Coast, and the storm spiraling between Bermuda and New England, but not yet the wave getting ready to exit the Great Lakes.
