One thing about being in a temperate climate is that we tend to run out of patience for extreme temperatures as the season grows later. Most of the country, save for Hawaii, sees a warm season and a cold season, so even if you associate, say, Beaumont, with hot temperatures, residents are going to wear on those warm temperatures in the summer. On the 9th and 10th of the month, those temperatures were in the mid to upper 90s, and while The Weather Channel nearly aced the forecast, local residents would have much rather shaved a few degrees off the temperature, especially those 76 degree overnight lows. Actuals August 9th, High 97, Low 76 August 10th, High 96, Low 76
Undoubtedly, in the last 10 years or so, there has been an increase in hurricane headlines. Part of this is because of our own unconscious bias. The US went for about a decade without a landfalling hurricane, which is pretty much absurd, and now that the rate of American landfall is ticking up, it feels like it is happening all the time.
And of course, with alarm bells ringing on the increasing heat in the ocean, we are acutely aware that the hurricane season is longer than it ever used to be. Sure, there are more large hurricanes making landfall in the US recently, and the season has become longer over the last couple of decades, but this doesn’t fully translate the issue.
As I said, we had a long lull after Katrina, where the US was spared, so an uptick in landfalling storms was always going to seem worse than it had been in recent memory, even if it is more a correction to what is a normal landfall rate. I think the misperception, however, is that we are having a bunch of strong storms regularly arriving on US Shores, when that is not really the case.
One thing is true about tropical storms is that they are being infused with more moisture, and as a result are bringing more rain. Every storm you see now has a greater tendency to produce flash flooding. This is partly being seen in Debby, where parts of the Carolinas and Georgia have been inundated. Debby wasn’t a particularly strong storm, but she was sure a soaker.
This is where the longer season comes into play a bit. As we know, the transition seasons of spring and fall tend to have the most dramatic weather over the continental United States. The jet dives south and brings active cold and warm fronts that make life a bit more interesting for everyone. Historically, the hurricane season is most active in September, just when things get more interesting with subtropical weather, and these cold fronts usher remnant hurricanes off into the north Atlantic.
In August, the dog days of summer, there are no big jet troughs or cold fronts, and storms are left to dawdle. Debby has been such a danger because she’s not been forced offshore. Harvey was an August storm, and he had the same issue 7 years ago. Dawdling. Storms are carrying more moisture, and early season storms especially are less likely to be kept moving, and flash flooding is on the rise with tropical storms. Expect this trend to continue for the long term.
A cool front was sliding into Alabama as the month started, just as we were waiting for Debby to make her way to the Florida Peninsula. Montgomery, typically awash in pop up showers and storms, was able to evade that activity on Saturday, even as a cool front slid through town. “Cool”. It was still in the 90s after it’s passage. There was a lingering splash of rain on Friday morning, which some people successfully called out, but ultimately, the top forecast came to a good temperature prognostication. Because of that, there was a three way tie on top, between The Weather Channel, Weather Service and Weatherbug. Actuals: Friday – .02 inches of rain, High 95, Low 77 Saturday – High 96, Low 76
July was a month heavy on Bloomingtons, but was fortunately not as robust in weather headlines as we have come to expect in the summer. Sure, we’ve certainly had some heat, rain, storms and everything that comes along with the summer, but it wasn’t quite as horrific as the last few years. Baby steps. The Weather Channel took the crown in the first month of the second half of the year.
We took care of one Bloomington, and now it is on to the next, this time in Indiana. As a Purdue grad, I was always unlikely to feel comfortable in the home of Indiana University, but not everyone felt that was the case. After a few early showers, it laid out perfectly for The Weather Channel, who pegged the forecast quite accurately, missing by only a few degrees of error to wrap up July. Actuals: Thursday, July 25th: .02 inches of rain, High 86, Low 65 Friday, July 26th, High 85, Low 63
We are planning on continuing the work of surrounding the Gulf of Mexico to begin August. It’s not as interesting as it could be this time of year, at least in Texas. Hurricane Debby, of course, made landfall down the coast in Apalachee Bay this morning.
At 853PM, PT, Beaumont was reporting a temperature of 85 degrees with clear skies. Debby has moved into the Carolinas, with high pressure building into the south central US behind her. Generally laminar flow in the northern US is causing a stagnant pattern in the southern US, with no cycling pressure centers to freshen things up. This also means that Debby will not be motivated in any particular direction. This will mean continued soaking, eventually flooding rains as she wobbles back to the west in Georgia and South Carolina. Fortunately for Beaumont, this will mean that moisture is going to be drawn to the Tropical feature, and will keep the town quite dry for the next couple of days. Tomorrow – Sunny, High 99, Low 76 Wednesday – Continued sun, High 98, Low 76
TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 97, Low 76 Wednesday – Sunshine. Hot. High 99, Low 76
AW: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 75 Wednesday – Hot with plenty of sunshine; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 100, Low 76
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 97, Low 77 Wednesday – Sunny and hot, High 99, Low 77
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, Low 78 Wednesday -Sunny, High 98, Low 76
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 78 Wednesday – Sunny, High 99, Low 79
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 98, Low 75 Wednesday – Sunny, High 99, Low 76
Satellite shows just how quiet it is in the south central, which means that it’s just going to be piping hot.
Well, we are deep into the summer, so we should probably take on a road trip, right? This journey will cover 550 miles, and will last only a day. It’s just a shot down I-65 at a pace of 67.9mph. That’s cooking! Let’s cook down to Montgomery!
Bloomington, Indiana
Low pressure is going to keep churning through the southern Great Lakes tomorrow, with rain continuing to wind around the center of low pressure, we are going to have to navigate through a few showers and embedded thunderstorms, especially in southern Indiana. More isolated storms are going to pop up in Kentucky and Tennessee, but being later in the day, they will probably be a little bit spicier. Fortunately, this should be the last of the wet weather. Unless you are talking about humidity, because it will be unbelievably sticky, all the way down to Montgomery.
Our Bloomington streak is over. We’re headed down to Alabama as we reach the dog days of summer. Get ready to sweat.
At 253PM, ET, Montgomery was reporting a temperature of 90 degrees with clear skies. There was a smattering of isolated thunderstorms in southern Alabama, thanks to the remnants of a cold front trying to move into the area. There isn’t really a cold front in the traditional sense, but really just a change in wind direction. This may lead to less haze in the morning tomorrow, but isn’t a particularly significant change to the airmass. Of future concern is an area of low pressure in the Great Lakes. It’s not particularly dynamic, as is often the case with summer time low pressure, but it is tapping into a wealth of heat and humidity. Quite a bit of rain and thunder is expected in the southern Great Lakes and Lower Ohio Valley through the day today, and will flare up again tomorrow evening when it reaches the western slope of the Appalachians. A band of showers and storms is expected to sink south overnight to southern Alabama, with some showers and storms becoming possible for Montgomery in the morning. A tropical invest moving through the Greater Antilles will arrive in the eastern Gulf in the evening on Saturday, and may inflame the boundary again, but by this point, it should be south of Montgomery Tomorrow – Very hot, High 99, Low 79 Saturday – Isolated showers in the morning, then partly cloudy late, High 95, Low 78
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. Hot and humid. Late rain High 98, Low 77 Saturday – Mostly sunny skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 95, Low 77
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 98, Low 76 Saturday – Periods of clouds and sun with a heavy thunderstorm in the afternoon; thunderstorms can cause flash flooding High 97, Low 74
NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Sunny and hot High 98, Low 77 Saturday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Sunny High 95, Low 77
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 97, Low 78 Saturday – Sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 96, Low 78
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 97, Low 77 Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 94, Low 78
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 98, Low 77 Saturday – Light rain showers, High 95, Low 75
Well, I said you were going to sweat. We’ll see how the showers pop up tomorrow, but I feel good about some stability building in. The wild card will be how much rain falls on Saturday.
As you may recall, we had back to back forecasts in Bloomingtons of the Midwest. the first was in Illinois, which, aside from some early rain on the 20th, with departing wet weather, was a pretty comfortable set of days in central Illinois. It was a comfy forecast as well, with no real surprises, and an A effort from winning outlet, WeatherNation. Actuals: July 20th, .01 inches of rain, High 78, Low 58 July 21st, High 81, Low 65
