Springfield, when we visited at the beginning of the month, was in the midst of a spate of high pressure that kept things pretty dry, and pretty stable. Victoria-Weather followed along with the model guidance, which is pretty reliable when compiling temperature forecasts in a static airmass. We ended up with the top forecast, but really, it should have been much closer. Instead, multiple outlets were 10+ degrees behind us in their score. This was such a straightforward forecast, I thought, so I can’t even tell you what went awry! Actuals: October 7th, High 70, Low 41 October 8th, High 74, Low 38
Binghamton is home to one of the smallest WFO’s in the country in south central New York. One would therefor assume that the NWS, without as much ground to cover, to be able to nail this forecast. The challenge has been cast, National Weather Service.
At 107PM, ET, Binghamton was reporting a temperature of 42 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There was a smattering of herringbone patterned rain showers falling across central New York and south through the Pennsylvania. This is on the back side of an area of low pressure moving through New England into the Maritimes, and riding the back of some seasonably chilly air. The inverted trough creating the precipitation, really the first of the season, will linger until it is smothered out by a broad ridge of high pressure. This will take until Wednesday morning. The upper level trough that is aiding the persistence of this instability is going to sink into the Gulf Stream and become cut off, developing an independent feature offshore. This will cut off the wrap around moisture in Binghamton, and set the stage for high pressure, which will move into the mid-Atlantic for the remainder of Wednesday, lasting through Thursday. Tomorrow – Cloudy with a chance for drizzle early, then clearing, High 45, Low 36 Thursday – Sunny, High 52, Low 34
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies, with a shower of rain or wet snow, High 49, Low 37 Thursday – Sun and few passing clouds, High 56, Low 34
AW: Tomorrow – A couple of morning showers; otherwise, mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly High 44, Low 35 Thursday – Sunny to partly cloudy and warmer High 54, Low 35
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, High 48, Low 36 Thursday – Areas of frost before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 56, Low 33
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a chance of rain and snow in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon, High 48, Low 37 Thursday – Mostly sunny. Widespread Frost, High 52, Low 34
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 48, Low 36 Thursday – Partly cloudy with areas of frost, High 55, Low 34
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 44, Low 34 Thursday – Sunny, High 52, Low 33
Many outlets say the first snow flakes of the year may end up in Binghamton! This could be an interesting verification!
12:12 Look at this scattershot radar imagery. If you didn’t know any better, you would almost guess that these are snow showers. Pretty sure they aren’t though.
8:05PM: Hey, Montana, knock it off! I’m not ready yet
9:42PM: I know I keep harping on this pending cooldown, but truly, there are freeze warnings as far south as northern Oklahoma tonight. There are even a couple of counties in the Texas Panhandle that have a freeze warning. Stay warm out there!
1:11AM. I don’t know why, the phrasing struck me as funny.
ARKANSAS WEATHER HISTORY—On this day, in 1886, the remnants of a tropical system moved across Arkansas. The tropical system only amounted to rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches. However, the impressive thing about this #arwxhistory post are observations from 138 years ago. #arwxpic.twitter.com/ihmZThBUZm
235PM The models have been particularly good with many of our hurricanes this year, so even though it is very quiet, with just one tropical wave being monitored in the Atlantic, I thought I would look ahead. The GFS, at least, does foresee that wave becoming a feature that will eventually trouble the Greater Antilles.
By next weekend, the potential storm looks like it will be arriving around Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Deeper into fantasy land, it is expected to double back over the D.R., but let’s see if the storm comes to be at all first.
8:23 PM. It’s going to be a significantly cooler start to the week for the middle of the country than what we have seen for about the last month and a half. It’s been well above normal for many places, but it’s going to feel like fall. Just a reminder for my northern Plains brethren…. this is what fall feels like in Dallas.
1027PM One thing to look at in the next three days with the colder air intruding is the first threat for snow east of the Rockies this year. It’s looking like there will be a strong possibility for snow in the Catskills as a cold front moves through on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Not much, but enough to notice.
We are free of hurricanes for a couple of days, at least, so we can take a guilt free trip from Illinois to New England. The drive will cover 1,152 miles over the course of two days. The pace of the drive will be about 66.5mph, which is pretty good, considering it terminates in New England. The faster of the two days will conclude after 532 miles. Hurricane season is also foliage season, so New England is a perfectly reasonable place to visit.
DAY ONE (Sunday)
Springfield, Illinois
High pressure is parked over the southeastern part of the country. It was crucial to keeping Milton from moving any further north, and instead cutting across Florida and jetting into the Atlantic. The storm was very bad where it struck, but it missed out on a lot of geography, which is good news. Now after the ridge has performed it’s life saving duty, the northern fringe is pressing south, thanks to a strong wave skirting the Great Lakes. There is quite a bit of wet weather in Lower Michigan, ready to drift into northern Ohio. As we travel out of Illinois through central Indiana Sunday, it will be dry, but increasingly cloudy in Ohio. I think the rain will b in Pennsylvania be the time we get to the eastern part of the Buckeye state, but thre could be a small bit of damp in Palmyra (southeast of Cleveland near the Pennsylvania border), where our day will come to a close.
DAY TWO (Monday) A surprising amount of cold air will trail the cold front with the system moving into the Great Lakes. It will be chilly when we start in Palmyra, and there will be a few spots of showers peaking around the western exposures of the Poconos. Further north, higher terrain in New England will likely see their first snowflakes of the year. As the sun comes up, and the cold air settles in and snuffs out any instability, we will get into clearer air. The drive through Connecticut will be thick with traffic, I am sure, but it will dry and chilly until we reach Providence.
The forecasts for Idaho Falls at the end of the month were all over the map. Instead of falling somewhere in the middle of the group, the weather instead found itself on the cool side, particularly with low temperatures on October 1st. The sub freezing temperatures were forecast by only one outlet — Victoria-Weather. Forecasters were way too warm otherwise, and Victoria-Weather won fairly easily. Actuals: September 30th, High 64, Low 42 October 1st, High 73, Low 31
7:58PM A brief time out in the Milton coverage, but I would also like to point out that tonight is the NHL opener, it is October 8th, and the NWS Tucson still needs to have this on their main page:
Good advice, but, wow. October? I guess hockey DID leave Arizona, so perhaps there is nothing to signal winter in the area anymore.
12:08AM: The various outlets are going all in on the Milton coverage, and it is warranted. While this storm won’t be the same as Helene – nothing may ever be – Milton will provide his own unique set of circumstances. First, he is tracking through the Gulf, directly at west Florida. This will undoubtedly lead to storm surge. Second, he is angling right for the Tampa area. Wind will also be a concern on top of the likely flooding in St. Petersburg, Clearwater and Sarasota. Third, and fortunately, Milton will cross Florida, and head off to sea, rather than make his way to the mountains.
Stay safe, west Florida. Even with all the action in the area the past few years, Milton looks to be the hardest punch to Tampa, perhaps in living memory.
There are countless Springfields across the country, but not many of them show up in the roster of potential forecast sites. Let’s make the Illinois version work for us.
At 1252PM, CT, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with a brisk west wind and clear skies. A cold front moved through the Great Lakes yesterday, with a stout ridge of high pressure building in behind the boundary. A thermal ridge, backed by an upper level jet ridge will only reinforce the area of high pressure across the center of the country. Along with clear skies, expect some more unseasonable warmth in the Land of Lincoln. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 42 Tuesday – Sunny, High 76, Low 38
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 43 Tuesday – Sunny skies, High 75, Low 40
AW: Tomorrow – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 71, Low 43 Tuesday – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 73, Low 37
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 46 Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 44
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 50 Tuesday – Sunny, High 71, Low 47
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 46 Tuesday – Sunny, High 72, Low 45
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 45 Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 41
Pretty nice weather for like, May. A little strange for October. To give you an idea of how slow things are in Illinois, this is actually a satellite loop.
