12:08AM: The various outlets are going all in on the Milton coverage, and it is warranted. While this storm won’t be the same as Helene – nothing may ever be – Milton will provide his own unique set of circumstances. First, he is tracking through the Gulf, directly at west Florida. This will undoubtedly lead to storm surge. Second, he is angling right for the Tampa area. Wind will also be a concern on top of the likely flooding in St. Petersburg, Clearwater and Sarasota. Third, and fortunately, Milton will cross Florida, and head off to sea, rather than make his way to the mountains.
Stay safe, west Florida. Even with all the action in the area the past few years, Milton looks to be the hardest punch to Tampa, perhaps in living memory.
There are countless Springfields across the country, but not many of them show up in the roster of potential forecast sites. Let’s make the Illinois version work for us.
At 1252PM, CT, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with a brisk west wind and clear skies. A cold front moved through the Great Lakes yesterday, with a stout ridge of high pressure building in behind the boundary. A thermal ridge, backed by an upper level jet ridge will only reinforce the area of high pressure across the center of the country. Along with clear skies, expect some more unseasonable warmth in the Land of Lincoln. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 42 Tuesday – Sunny, High 76, Low 38
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 43 Tuesday – Sunny skies, High 75, Low 40
AW: Tomorrow – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 71, Low 43 Tuesday – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 73, Low 37
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 46 Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 44
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 50 Tuesday – Sunny, High 71, Low 47
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 46 Tuesday – Sunny, High 72, Low 45
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 45 Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 41
Pretty nice weather for like, May. A little strange for October. To give you an idea of how slow things are in Illinois, this is actually a satellite loop.
A cold front moved through the Great Lakes as the month of September ended. It wasn’t very rainy, but behind it, some of that lake moisture was suspended over Lower Michigan. Temperatures on the final day of September didn’t echo the overwhelmingly warm month for a lot of the country in Lansing, as fog and low clouds from the Lakes kept temperatures in the low 70s, about 5 degrees cooler than most anticipated. Some did anticipate it, though, like Accuweather, who put together a very good forecast. Actuals: Sunday – .04 inches of rain High 78, Low 62 Monday – High 71, Low 56
105AM: There is another area being monitored for tropical development in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and the latest run has really latched on to it. This is but one run of one model, but the latest Euro organizes it into a landfalling storm for mid-week in southwest Florida, and then, curiously, moving east into oblivion. It’s a strange track, but certainly something to continue to monitor.
7:47PM The area I discussed this morning is now Tropical Storm Milton, and he is indeed forecast to make a hard drive for Tampa later this week. The storm is already prognosticated to be a Major Hurricane upon it’s mid-week landfall. It will have to grind through quite a bit of shower activity over the Gulf to make it happen. We can see some of that activity now on radar.
9:39PM: This is a pretty incredible look at the before and after of Helene, from space. (First seen at NPR)
Satellite images from the #VIIRS Day-Night band onboard the #NOAA20 satellite reveal Hurricane #Helene's impact.
Before and after images from Sept. 25 and 28, 2024, highlight power outages in parts of Florida, Georgia, and both South and North Carolina. pic.twitter.com/9m2J6y2RMJ
September is going to go down as one of the most historic months in American history, starting basically with the heat that has gripped much of the country. It was the warmest September on record for many locations. But memories will be leant to Hurricane Helene, and the victims throughout the southern Appalachians who saw their lives and livelihoods washed away.
The day to day weather doesn’t always seem extraordinary, but it does affect our every day life even outside of the headlines. It’s important to get it right everywhere, and the outlet that could claim that tile in September was The Weather Channel, who seriously clobbered the rest of the competition, securing the win in 3 out of the 7 forecasts.
It’s important to remember as we finally seem to be departing the summer, that sometimes, temperatures end up colder than we expect. That was the case in Glens Falls towards the end of September. Temperatures were a few degrees colder than every outlet’s high temperature forecast on the 24th and 25th, respectively, and the low was on the cold end of the low temperature forecasts as well. This is something to remember as we approach fall. It’s not summer all the time. The Weather Channel had the top forecast for the day. Actuals: September 24th, High 68, Low 43 September 25th, .42″ of rain, High 58, Low 51
12:43AM I should note that at this time, not only are there no storm warnings, but there are also no flood warnings. Right now, every terrible headline that comes out of western North Carolina comes with the small positive notion that we are hearing them because another corner of the state is reconnecting with the outside world. Not everywhere is back online yet, though, so there are still more days ahead with more bad news to come.
So much of the Idaho population center lies in the Snake River Valley, creating a U shape through southern Idaho. Idaho Falls is in the eastern part of the state, and I cannot confirm whether or not there are indeed snakes there.
At 653PM, MT, Idaho Falls was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies. It’s been dry in the northern Rockies, and there are red flag warnings out for the region. Conversely, low pressure moving through British Columbia is going to bring enough cold air southward that there are freeze advisories for northern Idaho. This is indicative of the overnight cooldown expected in Idaho Falls tonight. By Tuesday the next system will be moving into the Gulf of Alaska, and drawing warm air back northward. There may be a few clouds on Monday with the cooler air intruding, but it should clear out and warm right back up on Tuesday, the beginning of an uneven week. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, chilly in the morning, High 64, Low 40 Tuesday – Sunny and warmer by afternoon, frost in the morning, High 71. Low 31
TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon HIgh 66, Low 39 Tuesday – Mainly sunny. High 73, Low 32
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cooler HIgh 66, Low 41 Tuesday – Partly sunny and nice High 72, Low 33
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 64, Low 43 Tuesday – Sunny, High 70, Low 38
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 46 Tuesday – Sunny, warmer, High 68, Low 37
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 45 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 48
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 39 Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 45
I’ve checked. No typos here, this forecast just looks to be all over the map. Satellite would suggest that this shouldn’t be so complicated.
On Friday, my mind naturally goes to college football, and I know that the Michigan State Spartans are squaring off against Ohio State tonight. Will travel between the two towns be challenging after the game?
At 1053PM, ET, Lansing was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 64 degrees. The clouds over Lansing, and the smattering of light showers in the area were remnants of Helene, which is continuing to unravel in the upper Ohio Valley. The remnants are getting weaker, but are not really expected to move out of the area through any other synoptic forcing. While clouds and maybe some rain will be possible through the night, the disturbance left by Helene will continue to contract in its area of influence over the next 48 hours. The threat for rain in Lansing should be through by tomorrow afternoon, after which point it will be partly cloudy, an increasingly warm once again. Tomorrow – Overcast, breaking out later in the day, Some early light rain. High 75, Low 62 Monday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 57
TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast (Early rain) High 75, Low 63 Monday – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 76, Low 57
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a brief shower or two High 76, Low 62 Monday – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 73, Low 57
NWS: Tomorrow – 10 percent chance of showers before 8am. Mostly cloudy High 75, Low 63 Monday – Partly sunny, High 75, Low 58
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. 20 percent chance of showers through midday, High 74, Low 65 Monday – Partly sunny, High 72, Low 59
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light rain showers, High 74, Low 63 Monday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 73, Low 59
CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 75, Low 62 Monday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 58
Differing opinions are seen for the rain, but for our more typically reliable outlets, well, there is more overlap. The rain isn’t showing up as clearly as the overcast from the remnants of Helene.
