11:21. No no, that is the continental shelf off the Carolina Coast, not an above the surface physical feature touching off thunderstorms. No matter how it looks.
November Forecaster of the Month
It was busy this month, which really added to the annual win totals, and gave credibility to our monthly winner. It hasn’t been the best year for Accuweather but in our most active month of the year (at least in terms of forecasts issued) they came through with the big win. Congratulations!
| Outlet | Forecast Wins (year) |
| The Weather Channel | 17.15 |
| Victoria-Weather | 13.48 |
| WeatherNation | 7.33 |
| Accuweather | 7.16 |
| Weatherbug | 4.83 |
| National Weather Service | 4.32 |
| Clime | 3.5 |
Socked in
December started in quite the dreary manner in the Cascades. It had been foggy in Corvallis when we investigated on the 4th, and the forecast was for the fog to start breaking down a little bit. It did not. Not even a little bit. Victoria-Weather was the least optimistic, but that paid off, because it was pretty gloomy. The forecast wasn’t good for any of our forecasters, and the weather wasn’t good for any of the residents, as it never cleared out to start warming up.
Actuals: December 5th, High 36, Low 30
December 6th, High 37, Low 28
Grade: C-F
Updates 12/17
10:02: A cold front is bringing some cooler conditions for a brief period. Those cooler conditions don’t apply to the Tampa area.
Jacksonville, North Carolina
Not quite as renowned as the two Portlands, there are also two Jacksonvilles, and both of them are on an intercoastal water way in the southeast, so there is a bit more in common with these co-named towns.
At 156PM, ET, Jacksonville was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with mostly sunny skies. A boundary had shifted off shore in relation to low pressure in the central Appalachians, and clouds and rain were recently observed as nearby as Cherry Point. North Carolina finds itself within the warm sector of this feature, and looks to enjoy a warm afternoon.
The parent low to the feature in the Appalachians is a deeply occluded cyclone in Ontario. The jet structure is becoming more laminar, making the occlusion even more stark, and weakening the cold front. The boundary will track through Jacksonville fairly uneventfully tomorrow afternoon. This unaltered environment will be in place as another low organized and moves swiftly, starting in southern Missouri and transporting through the Carolinas by Wednesday evening. Expect a surge in warmth and moisture in the afternoon, followed by an increasing threat of showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 43
Wednesday – Increasingly cloudy, some rain late, High 72, low 56
TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of fog (and rain) early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon High 73, Low 53
Wednesday – Areas of fog early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon high 72, low 54
AW: Tomorrow – Areas of fog in the morning; otherwise, very warm with clouds and sunshine High 74, Low 51
Wednesday – Areas of morning fog; otherwise, partly sunny and warm with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 72, Low 53
NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 73, Low 52
Wednesday – A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, High 70, Low 54
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly sunny, High 69, Low 53
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. A 40% chance of showers, with thunderstorms in the evening, High 69, Low 53
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers, High 72, Low 53
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 70, Low 54
CLI: I think Clime is done? Their forecasts just keep bringing out 404’s
Here is the radar for the Carolinas with some showers over the Outer Banks.
A taste of December
We transitioned to December in the midst of our forecast period in Florence, Alabama, and for Alabama, anyways, it felt like the season was changing. Overnight lows were below freezing both on the 30th and 1st, and that’s a chill you just can’t shake if you aren’t used to it, even if the high temperature ranges up to the mid-50s, and the sun is shining in the afternoon. The brisk weather in Alabama was brisk business for Victoria-Weather, who had a top notch forecast and won the day.
Actuals: November 30th – High 52, Low 34
December 1st – High 55, Low 30
Grade: A-D
Corvallis, Oregon to Lancaster, Pennsylvania
It’s a classic cross country trek today, as we voyage from west to east over the course of 5 days. It’s 2813 miles between the two cities, and our pace will be about 67mph. Our 8 hour drives every day (for the first 4 days, anyway) will be about 535.8 miles. It’s December, so let’s hope the weather holds!
DAY ONE (Thursday)
Long days are ahead, and we will be losing hours as we had eastward. Day one will see us pass from Pacific to Mountain time, and also from damp to dry conditions. A bundle of energy is moving into the Oregon coast overnight, and some of the light rain and fog is going to linger in the Cascades as we start the day. If we climb high enough, we will probably see some flakes as well. The moisture looks to be trapped east of the Cascades, about as far east as Juntara. If we can make it to Juntara, we will make it to clearer skies. The crossing into Idaho will be fine, as will navigating the Boise area. The drive will end in Tuttle, in southern Idaho.
DAY TWO (Friday)
The system won’t maintain it’s energy as it presses eastward, partially because of the terrain, and partly because the stronger energy is consolidating southwest of Vancouver Island. Still, there may be some valley fog in Idaho, especially early, but northern Utah and southern Wyoming are under high pressure. The day will end in Elk Mountain, Wyoming.
DAY THREE (Saturday)
As we rest in Elk Mountain, the atmosphere will be churning in the Plains. An area of low pressure will begin to emerge in western Kansas and start pulling cooler air southwards and moist air to the north. We will be chasing the precipitation by late afternoon in Nebraska, and never quite catch it, but this development will introduce some chillier temperatures. Bundle up as we conclude the day in Pleasant Dale, Nebraska, just west of Lincoln.
DAY FOUR (Sunday)
False alarm, everyone! The wet weather and what not that had been feared is going to march further east much quicker than we will. Whew! This will be the most civilization we will have seen on this trip so far, as we will pass through Omaha, Des Moines, the Quad Cities and end up in Chicago by the time the day is in. It will have rained in Chicago in the morning, and who knows if that will lead to carry over traffic concerns, but if we get too exhausted, it’s all right because South Holland, just before the Indiana line, is our destination for the evening.
DAY FIVE (Monday)
It appears as the Plains are just fixing to be active this December. Low pressure is developing in the southern Plains (again) on Monday. It will be stronger and rainier than the previous version, and a little bit further to the east. Could we catch some of it? If we do, that would be bad luck, and also, we should get out of any rain before we reach South Bend. The drive through Ohio will be dry, and we won’t have any precip problems in Pennsylvania. Maybe a lingering spot of valley fog as moisture from the initial low works it’s way into New England, but otherwise it will be unseasonably pleasant in Lancaster as we arrive.
Lancaster, Pennsylvania
Welcome to mid-December. A cold front is pressing towards the eastern Seaboard this evening, so it appears as this forecast will have the FEEL of a mid-December forecast. As it should.
At 1253AM, ET, Lancaster was reporting a temperature of 52 degrees with overcast skies. Rain was not presently being reported in the area, but it was certainly all around. The next batch of precipitation will be moving in from the southwest, were showers are being reported in York. A sharp trough in the eastern third of the country is the culprit behind a still evolving area of surface low pressure centered in the western Carolinas. It was pumping moisture northward, and will continue to until the low itself moves through midday tomorrow. After this point, cold air will start rushing in in earnest.
The coldest air and the precipitation don’t quite overlap, so snow in southeastern Pennsylvania, while not impossible, is unlikely. The brisk upper level flow will lead to Lake effect snow in the eastern Great Lakes and still gloomy conditions in Lancaster for Thursday.
Tomorrow – Rain through the morning, ending with a wintry mix in the afternoon, High 59, Low 33
Thursday – Cloudy, windy and colder, High 38, Low 26
TWC: Tomorrow – Periods of rain High 62, Low 35
Thursday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 37, Low 26
AW: Tomorrow – Mild with heavy rain and a t-storm; windy this afternoon; worsening travel conditions throughout the day; flooding, damaging winds and power outages possible High 61, Low 36
Thursday – Windy and much colder with partial sunshine High 37, Low 27
NWS: Tomorrow – Rain. High 61, Low 34
Thursday – Sunny, High 35, Low 25
WB: Tomorrow – Rain, Unseasonably warm, High 57, Low 35
Thursday – Sunny, Much cooler, High 35, Low 27
WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with Rain, High 61, Low 34
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 34, Low 25
CLI: Uh oh
Two forecasts in a row where Clime is not working. Uh oh indeed.
It’s a rainy one out east! All forecasts, every day, are non standard.
Coming Soon…
The theme for the rest of this month, save for one venture, will be short road trips.
Jacksonville, North Carolina
Road Trip from Virginia Beach, Virginia to New Orleans, Louisiana
Monroe, Louisiana
Road Trip from New Orleans to Monroe
Logan, Utah
Road Trip from Lafayette, Indiana to Peoria, Illinois
Corvallis, Oregon
Thanksgiving is behind us, and now Christmas awaits, and in between a busy few weeks. Travel can get sticky in the Northeast around the holidays, and everyone knows it, but what about the Northwest?
At 615PM, PT, Corvallis was reporting low clouds and fog, as well as a temperature of 32 degrees. Temperatures are undoubtedly suppressed by the low clouds, as near the coast it was 10 degrees warmer. The low blanket was seen inland, as flow was wrapping westward from an upper level ridge, and burying any moisture near the surface.
The ridge aloft is going to be reinforced by an off shore jet ridge over the next couple of days which will help fog and low clouds begin to burn off a little more efficiently, however the ridge started settling in earlier today, and if anything, the low level moisture has become even more pernicious. Still, expect the area to remain precipitation free, and eventually some sunshine will break through before the weekend arrives.
Tomorrow – Overcast, with a few breaks of sun, High 40, Low 30
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 45, Low 30
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing. High 44, Low 30
Friday – Mainly cloudy. High 46, Low 32
AW: Tomorrow – Low clouds and fog, then perhaps some sun with a shower in spots in the afternoon High 44, Low 27
Friday – Low clouds High 46, Low 31
NWS: Tomorrow – Widespread dense fog, mainly before 10am. Areas of freezing fog before 7am. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, high 47, Low 29
Friday – Areas of fog before 10am. High 48, Low 33
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly cloudy. Widespread fog in the morning, High 41, Low 31
Friday – Areas of fog in the morning. Partly sunny, High 44, Low 33
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a light wintry mix, High 44, Low 32
Friday – Partly cloudy with a light wintry mix, High 46, Low 33
CLI: 404, not found
It’s been a while since a forecast didn’t show up. It looks like Clime is fully on the fritz, as I punched in a bunch of sits, and nothing appeared for me. Nothing is appearing for anyone in parts of Oregon this week, given the clouds and fog in the area, visible on satellite below.
