The Florida Panhandle is an area that gets busy this time of year with students of all types spending their spring break in an easily accessible stretch of beach. One thing they don’t want in Fort Walton Beach or other spots is what they saw from the 19th to 20th. A splash of rain and morning lows that dropped into the 40s when all was said and done. Go home, tourists! Weatherbug got this non-welcoming forecast the best, losing points for having a dry forecast. Actuals – 19th, High 72, Low 64 20th, .04 inches of rain. High 70, Low 46
It’s getting warmer which means it is getting closer to road trip season. This three day trek might follow the 1,797 mile path of someone returning from spring break. We will average 66.5 miles an hour and 532 miles a day, though we are really going to pack it in — 11 hours — on Saturday.
DAY ONE (Thursday)
Lake Havasu City, Arizona
This drive is one of beauty if you are just there to enjoy the scenery, as the sun will be shining, but as this is a weather blog, it may not offer the excitement we are hoping for. Alas, it is the Desert Southwest, and you get what you pay for. It will be a bit more interesting if you take in the entirety of the region, however. Low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and a festering system in south Texas will squeeze our route, even bringing some clouds towards Albuquerque as we conclude our first day, though I-40 will stay clear.
DAY TWO (Friday) That sluggish feature in south Texas is going to start wandering east, and remain out of our path, but we would be wise to note what is causing this wander. A strong area of low pressure emerging in the lee of the Rockies will start directing traffic across the Plains, and will bear watching all weekend. Our trip to Oklahoma City will be pretty uneventful, however, which is a nice thing to say when severe weather looms.
DAY THREE (Saturday) It’s not going to organize terribly quickly, our large, troublesome area of low pressure. This means we don’t need to worry about a severe outbreak during our drive, but we will some isolated showers east of Rolla, MO, and more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of Springfield as we get closer to the center of the system. Rockford will probably have rain, if not when we arrive, then soon.
Made some updates on the back end tonight, so I hope there are no interruptions, because I am a meteorologist, and not an HTML guy! We’ll find out together!
At 1054PM, CT, Rockford was reporting a temperature of 33 degrees with mostly fair skies. Temperatures will continue to cool below freezing overnight, given the clear skies, however a batch of precipitation is rotating through eastern Iowa on the far western periphery of the influence of a broad upper level trough. These showers will not impact Rockford tonight, but a few clouds would arrest the overnight cool down, albeit momentarily. Flow tomorrow will be from the northwest. A weak feature in the southern part of Hudson Bay will work up a few more clouds, particularly by tomorrow afternoon, with some light rain possible during the early morning on Thursday. This will be the signal that an unseasonably warm ridge is sliding into the area, and ushering in a warm end of the week. Tomorrow – Increasing clouds. High 57, Low 30 Thursday – Early morning rain, otherwise mostly cloudy, High 59, Low 38
TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 57, Low 29 Thursday – Overcast (early rain). High 58, Low 40
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; a warmup is on the way High 56, Low 29 Thursday – Cloudy with a bit of rain; breezy in the afternoon High 54, Low 39
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, (Early rain) High 55, Low 31 Thursday – A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly before 1pm. High 55, Low 40
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 56, Low 32 Thursday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers mainly in the morning High 55, Low 43
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a light wintry mix, High 55, Low 31 Thursday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 55, Low 41
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers High 56, Low 31 Thursday – Overcast High 58, Low 38
When I say a warm start to the weekend, I’m talking “close to 80” warm, which is very nice in March. It won’t last, of course, as it never does. A lot of forecasts for rain on Wednesday, despite a pretty unblemished satellite.
It truly is an honor to say that we were there when we forecast for rain in central California, and it verified accurately. Indeed, our forecast in Hanford did verify with a half inch of rain on Monday and Tuesday, which most outlets had figured correctly. The biggest area of difference was the low temperature on Tuesday, which was a few degrees warmer than anticipated. All told, a pretty good forecast, considering the location and the fact that there was actually weather. Victoria-Weather and WeatherNation combined for the victory. Actuals: Monday .46 inches of rain, High 60, Low 46 Tuesday .02 inches of rain, High 60, Low 44
3:19PM – Low pressure in Eastern Canada is quit occluded, enough so the original low has kicked off a secondary trough breezing through the western Great Lakes. There is a little rain in Minnesota and Iowa, and some strong gusts as well.
7:02PM – The system moving through the country this weekend is evocative of an Alberta Clipper. It starts today in the northern Rockies and will get stronger as it dives southeast, where the best shot for severe storms will crop up on Sunday. And yes, there will probably be some snow, up on the Canadian border and Northern Great Lakes.
What are the signs of spring that you look for? If you are a normal person, you are likely looking for that first robin to land in your front yard, or for the daffodils to start blooming. If you are a meteorologist or weather super fan, you are on the look out for big, multifaceted storms rumbling through the middle of the country. I can’t speak to the daffodils in your neighborhood, but we have certainly seen those big storms.
Storms at the beginning of the week were particularly nasty. An EF-4 tornado struck Diaz, Arkansas, while 43 were killed across several states, including 12 in Missouri. Rolla and Poplar Bluff were among the towns to sustain significant damage. Strong storms continued through the Southeast and Mid Atlantic with more tornadoes striking from Louisiana to Alabama, and to the north in Illinois and Indiana. There were also gusty winds and large hail. Given that so many storms struck overnight, an the tornado count was as high as it was, the death toll certainly could have been higher.
The storms have been large enough that they showed up in the long term guidance well in advance of the storm. There were outlooks for severe weather in the 4-9 day SPC outlooks for this storm, as well as the smaller storm early this week (which brought 3 separate small tornadoes to Gary, Indiana!). There is a threat again on Sunday of this weekend for more rough stuff in the Tennessee Valley, though the threat is not as great as these past two rounds. It’s a sign of how pronounced the upper air pattern is. A sure sign of spring.
I noted that these storms were multifaceted. Not only did the storms bring severe weather of the thunderstorm variety, but also of the winter variety, with blizzard conditions coming with both storms in parts of the Upper Midwest. The dynamics of the storm lead to narrow bands of heavy snowfall, and as significantly, strong winds that impacted visibility. Again, this is the nature of spring.
Most people aren’t meteorologists, however, and the larger part of the universe is awaiting warm weather, and I assure you, it is coming. The beginning of the season is a great time to look at the CPC outlook for the next three months. Great news for the sunseekers, because no part of the country, aside from western Alaska, should expect below normal temperatures.
8:00PM It’s been storms across a big cross section of the country that have earned a lot of headlines, but one area that hasn’t seen the rain is Florida, and to a degree, the Coastal Plains. Moderately dry conditions are leading to concerns for fires in this area. High winds further west also bring worry about fire and how fast they would spread in the Plains.
The end of the week was a stormy time for a great chunk of the country. And it all started popping off juuuuuuuust to the east of St. Joseph, Missouri, where the early afternoon on Friday brought a little bit of rain and a few gusts to start things off, but that was it. Well, almost. They also got the cold air behind the front. That’s where the real surprise came. St. Joseph reported a trace of snow late on Saturday. That was not on anyone’s bingo board. The National Weather Service had the top forecast for the storm kickoff. Actuals: Friday -.04 inches of rain, High 79, Low 57 Saturday – .04 inches of liquid in snow, High 59, Low 34
Were heading for the Panhandle as spring is beginning to emerge nationwide. A reminder that the Florida Panhandle is more aligned with the American Southeast than it is with Peninsular Florida, where the weather is concerned. Let’s see how that plays into the forecast.
At 1255AM, ET, Fort Walton Beach was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures dropped significantly just inland, and the warm air drifting ashore suggested the potential for some fog in the morning, especially with dew points nearly matching the air temperature. Strong low pressure in the Plains is belaboring the pattern, which would otherwise be counterintuitive, given the temperature dynamics. A strong trough in the Plains is going to allow surface low pressure to intensify and shift to the northeast, all the while pulling in more warm Gulf air to the Panhandle. The day tomorrow will be warm and humid, however a cold front will arrive in Fort Walton Beach early on Thursday, bringing a chance for some light showers and a notably cooler day to follow. Tomorrow – Warm with some morning haze, High 73, Low 59 Thursday – Morning showers, then clearing and cooler, High 66, Low 50
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds High 73, Low 58 Thursday – Mostly sunny (Early rain), High 68, Low 52
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and pleasant; great day to be outside High 75, Low 57 Thursday – Sunny and windy (Early rain) High 68, Low 54
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 55 Thursday – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, (Early rain) High 67, Low 50
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. (Late showers) High 72, Low 62 Thursday – Sunny cooler. Less humid (Early rain) High 67, Low 50
CLI: Tomorrow – Clear High 74, Low 56 Thursday – Sunny (Early rain) High 67, Low 46
Thursday, after the frontal passage, is expected to be non standard. Surprise! We have a bit of cloud debris collecting on the Mississippi Delta. Will this spread? I suspect it will.
