from Victoria-Weather
11:01AM Looks like a pretty normal one from the SPC today, with a broad swath of slight risk yellow through the middle of the country. Some seriously summer vibes out of the outlook today.
But, um…. what’s the deal with all this pink in the Rockies, NWS?
8:15PM: The week ahead is going to provide more threats for severe weather, but not nearly as vivid as it was in the past few weeks. On the north end, there won’t be the snow inducing cold air. Instead, just enough to induce this cute graphics pack from NWS Aberdeen.
Spring is known for being as damp as it is rejuvenating. We accept how sloppy the month is because we know it is going to bring about some momentous changes to the landscape. Well get ready, friends, because most of the country is going to be on the wet sides through the latter half of the month.
Everywhere but the west coast is looking for a rainy stretch from late this week and on to next week. There aren’t any extreme bullseyes, but even Alaska and Hawaii are going to see extra rain fall.
This, along with warm air forecast to build out east is a preponderance of “Texas Hookers” in the next couple of weeks. Generally, this would mean a broad and deep trough over the Plains. Surface low pressure starting in the southern Plains will rocket towards the Great Lakes, bringing hot, sticky weather in he warm sector, and apparently, rain everywhere.
With all the talk of severe weather and heavy rain lately, it’s kind of nice that our forecast in Johnson City last week turned out to be so nice. Well, dry. Temperatures were below freezing on one morning, and crept only to the low 50s the day before, which is decidedly not what you are looking for in spring, trying to bounce back to some vibrancy. It was in the 60s by Wednesday, at least, and with luck, we won’t have to think about February and March again any time soon. The Weather Channel claimed the victory with a very good forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 52, Low 37
Wednesday – High 64, Low 28
Grade: A-C
It wasn’t a particularly snowy year in the middle of the country, which often limits the threat for downstream flooding in the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. The Missouri looks to be ok this season, but the Mississippi is spilling it’s banks in some places, or is expected to soon in others.
If you are a budding cartographer, you will note that the major flood stage pink squares extend away from the Mississippi. It’s the Ohio that is the origin for some of these flood waters, thanks to the persistent seen in our very active March. You will note that rivers are high in a southwest to northeast line from east Texas to western Michigan, aligned with the track of our storms last month.
While all that rain isn’t directly over the Ohio, it would be over the Green, Cumberland and Tennessee River, all of which flow into the Ohio. Parts of downtown Louisville have been underwater thanks to the flooding. As this article notes, we are approaching Louisville’s biggest tourism season, and a flood clean up will be a difficult challenge.
As the region attempts to dry out, we are looking at a pretty dry week. This will help flood waters down river rise and fall without too many consequences. Hopefully this is the last of the river flood season.
This time last week, we were putting together a forecast for Harrisburg, and it was looking sloppy. Unfortunately, forecasts bore out, with about half an inch of rain wetting the Keystone capital, and most of it came on Saturday, of course. If there was any silver lining, it is that residents probably knew it was coming, given the decent forecast they were given. Probably not exactly the news they were looking for, though. The Weather Channel was the issuer of the best forecast.
Actuals: Saturday, .45″ of rain, High 60, Low 51
Sunday, .07″ of rain, High 55, Low 49
Grade: A-C
11:15AM: With spring running a bit cool right now, and so many stories about rain afflicting the mid-South and Appalachia, we would be forgiven to not realize how dry the northern High Plains have been. There are red flag warnings today from northeastern Colorado through the Dakotas. Compounding matters is the surface pattern, which is allowing for winds gusting 35-45 miles an hour. If fire does crop up, they will whip up and spread quickly across the prairies.
11:25PM Weatherbug had the best month forecasting last month, and while yes, the actual forecasting was good, I have to believe that a huge part of it is that they got rid of side scrolling for hourly forecasts.
9:32PM It’s a quiet night across the country. The bulk of he warnings on the national map are temperature related, which is not what one expects to see on April 8th.
11:20PM Another sign that the seasons are changing. A fairly organized complex of fronts is going to move out of the Plains and into the Great Lakes through the next 48 hours. Why is this unusual? Because it’s not really going to DO anything. How can we tell it will move through? It will be partly cloudy and 75 or so tomorrow in Omaha (after lower 60s today). On Wednesday and Thursday, it will be partly cloudy and 65.
It was a good month for Weatherbug. I am a huge fan of their updated interface, and I guess you dress good you feel good, because their month of forecasting was very successful. They had half of the overall victories in the month, which is a pretty good way to win the forecaster of the month award. It’s a turnaround after a slow start to the year, but it was well earned. Congrats!
| Outlet Forecast Wins (year) | |
| Accuweather | 3.5 |
| National Weather Service | 3 |
| Weatherbug | 3 |
| The Weather Channel | 2 |
| Clime | 2 |
| Victoria-Weather | 1.5 |
| WeatherNation |
We watched with Memphis as they anticipated severe weather last week, and we will begin this week on the opposite side of the state. What to expect in Johnson City?
At 1138AM, ET, the Tri-Cities were reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with overcast skies and lingering fog. The elongated band of at times heavy and flooding rain that has brought havoc to the mid-South and Ohio Valley has now reached the Appalachians, and is starting to depart East Tennessee. The day will be rainy in Virginia, and a little bit of vorticity will come to the southern part of the line of showers, slowing the line down a bit and bringing some moisture back into the Tri Cities. Rain isn’t expected for the rest of the day, however overcast and fog will struggle to retreat.
A post frontal trough at the back side of the broader area of low pressure will mean more fog and clouds tomorrow morning, but temperatures that aren’t as cool as they could be, given the post frontal air mass. An area of high pressure will develop across the region through the afternoon tomorrow, and will hold intact through Wednesday. It will be warmer, thanks to the sun shining a bit more, but a warm air mass will be harder to come by.
Tomorrow – Morning fog and cloudy, clearing late, High 49, Low 35
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 62, Low 30
TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 51, Low 36
Wednesday – Plentiful sunshine. High 65, Low 28
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cold High 51, Low 38
Wednesday – Warmer with plenty of sunshine High 63, Low 30
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 34
Wednesday – Widespread frost before 7am. Otherwise, sunny, High 64, low 26
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 49, Low 39
Wednesday – Sunny. High 63, low 32
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 50, Low 36
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 29
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 50, Low 35
Wednesday – Sunny, High 62, low 26
There is some pretty consistent forecast temperatures. The sure sign of a sunny forecast in the spring time. It sure isn’t sunny right now.
