The last gasp of a cold spell

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When we put together our forecast for Dubuque, they were at the tail end of their extended inhabitance of a February cold spell for the record books. Wednesday dipped down all the way to -13, but the Thursday low was a relatively mild 2 above, a difference of 15 degrees. Not bad! The biggest issue with the forecast was a tendril of light snow that moved through the Mississippi Valley. It came about 12 hours later than expected, which meant that everyone missed on the precipitation forecast, even the select few who actually through it might snow. Victoria-Weather was better than the rest on temperatures, and won the forecast with ease.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 12, Low -13
Thursday- Trace of precipitation, High 18, Low 2

Grade: C-D

Hattiesburg hears thunder

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While the catastrophe in Texas has garnered many of the headlines this week, the disaster was more widespread than that. From cold weather throughout the Plains to snow and ice nearly everywhere west of the Appalachians, many people suffered loss, disruption and discomfort. In Hattiesburg, temperatures were significantly colder than normal, but at least late in the week, precipitation was all rain. There were even some rumbles of thunder on Wednesday night as the second feature of the weeklong event passed to the north. Ice was a huge problem to the north of Hattiesburg, and even with over an inch of rains, and temperatures in the 20s, before the precipitation rolled in, you might even say they were lucky. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – .93 inches of rain, High 42, Low 20
Thursday – .24 inches of rain, High 43, Low 32

Grade: B-C

Chilly air comes for Texas

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Before the weekend, we put together a forecast for Dallas that called for increasingly chilly conditions. While the low temperatures didn’t quite bottom out as cold as most outlets feared, the high temperatures were unable to reach even 60 for the entire weekend, thanks to a little wave moving through the Red River Valley. The forecast victory was split between Weatherbug and WeatherNation, who each had their own successful day. WeatherNation was nearly perfect on Saturday, while Weatherbug was far better than other comers on Sunday.
Actuals: Saturday: High 59, Low 43
Sunday: High 58, Low 38

Grade: B-C

Brunswick can’t cool down

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There was one big issue with forecasts for Brunswick last week: the overnight lows were all too warm, and more than just a little bit. It didn’t dip below 50 degrees on Thursday, which was at least 6 degrees warmer than anyone had in the forecast. It was generally warmer than forecasts called for, but those lows really stood out. Accuweather had the best overnight temperatures, and narrowly surpassed the other forecasters (especially since there was a trace of rain reported on Thursday afternoon — AW was the only outlet with rain) to achieve victory.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 70, Low 45
Thursday – Trace of rain, High 69, Low 50

Grade: C-D

Unclipped

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An Alberta Clipper has started tracking for the Upper Midwest, with a burst of snow expected in the western Great Lakes region over the weekend. The feature got it’s start in the middle of the week in, of all places, Alberta. This was key for our forecast site in Billings, which enjoyed the infusion of warm air being drawn north towards the low, and didn’t have to put up with any of the consequences, save for a breezy day on Wednesday. The forecasts were pretty similar, and there was a 4 way tie for third, but Victoria-Weather ended up securing a victory for ourselves.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 39, Low 23
Wednesday – High 50, Low 26

Grade: B-C

Right where they left off

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The first forecast of the year took us to central California, which was facing the threat of rain, thanks to the continued active pattern over the Gulf of Alaska. A few outlets thought the chance of rain was significant enough to put it in the forecast for Fresno on January 4th, but it never came to pass. In fact, it was clear and dry enough that temperatures climbed into the low 60s, which is exactly where The Weather Channel had them. After earning the most forecast victories in 2020, TWC collected the first crown of 2021.
Actuals: January 4th, High 62, Low 48
January 5th, High 60, Low 43

Grade: B-C

A holiday get together

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Our last forecast of 2020 came a couple of days after Christmas in interior California. Bakersfield was a rainy place on December 27th, and that continued to the 28th. Fortunately, the skies cleared on the 29th, so people could spend their last few hours of their 2020 quarantine on the patio, if they felt comfortable with temperatures only reaching the mid 50s. In the spirit of giving, Bakersfield allowed 3 sites, Accuweather, Weatherbug and Forecast.io to claim a tie atop the leader board to conclude this very long year.
Actuals: December 28th, .21″ of rain, High 56, Low 45
December 29th, High 56, Low 42

Grade: AB-B

Dreamt of a White Christmas

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The country felt summer late into fall, and fall ran late as well, so the system that clobbered the upper Midwest and Great Lakes just before Christmas was welcome for some, I’m sure of it. People dream of a white Christmas. That’s why I am going to say confidently that the blustery snow storm that hit Akron starting on Christmas Eve was probably welcome to the locals. The Weather Channel was perhaps the most open to this turn of events, not because they were in Akron, but because they had the best forecast. Active weather always causes the most nettlesome forecasts, and this was no exception, but The Weather Channel was clearly victorious.
Actuals: December 23: Trace of rain, High 53, Low 25
Christmas Eve: .1 inches of total precipitation in rain/snow High 54, Low 22

Grade: C-D

Saved by a few flakes

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The forecast didn’t waiver by a lot in Grand Rapids, but there was one element that separated a couple of outlets. Just north of a system that would dump snow measured in feet on the mid-Atlantic, west winds off Lake Michigan brought a few snow showers to Grand Rapids on Wednesday, which elevated the results for only two outlets: Accuweather, and the winner of the day, Victoria-Weather. For results to fluctuate much on a precipitation error, the temperatures had to have been fairly close, which they were. The Weather Channel was good on temperatures, but off on the snow, which set them back, like nearly everyone else.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 29, Low 19
Wednesday – Trace of snow, High 30, Low 23

Grade: B-C

A strong ridge, even stronger than thought

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Owensboro seemed to be a pretty easy forecast when we issued it last week. Well. A combination of a stout ridge at the upper levels and an infusion of warm air thrust northward by an advancing area of low pressure shot high temperatures well into the 60s, which was a sight warmer than anyone anticipated. The Weather Channel and Accuweather tied to have the “least bad” forecasts.
Actuals: Thursday: High 67, Low 35
Friday – High 65, Low 41

Grade: D