Clear skies, crisp temperatures

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When you are working with clear skies in the Plains, you might expect to have a pretty easy forecast. Even with low pressure moving towards Topeka late in the forecast period last week, it was the first day of our forecast period that proved toughest. Those clear skies brought temperatures all the way down to 29 degrees by Wednesday morning, which was a solid 5 degrees colder than anyone prognosticated. The Weather Channel was the best aside from that blip that was on everyone’s ledger, as they accurately had the warmest high temperature forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 72, Low 29
Thursday – High 72, Low 30gradec

Grade: C – D

Waterlogged western Maryland

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I wrote recently about the flooding in eastern Kentucky and across West Virginia. Western Maryland, and specifically the city of Cumberland, for which we had a forecast last week, didn’t avoid the persistent soaking rains either. On the last day of February, Cumberland endured daylong rain that accumulated to over an inch. Fortunately, reports of flooding in Maryland weren’t as prolific, but this was enough rain to cause concern. Weatherbug was the top forecast for the end of the month.
Actuals: Saturday – .03 inches of rain, High 47, Low 25
Sunday – 1.21 inches of rain, High 47, Low 40

Grade: C-D

In the mix

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The end of February saw another, somewhat repetitive pattern, with perturbations emerging from the southern Plains and heading for the eastern Great Lakes. It happened more than once, including early last week when we were forecasting in Ocean City, New Jersey. It was about to rain on Sunday night when we looked at the forecast, and to the surprise of a few, that rain mixed with snow on Monday morning. It was more rain than snow, however, and nothing accumulated as the day wore on. Ultimately, it was a tied forecast win for Forecast.io and Victoria-Weather. I had a typo in my forecast, so I am ok letting FIO have the plaudits on this go-around.
Actuals: Monday – .46″ of rain, High 45, Low 31
Tuesday – High 51, Low 35

Grade: B-C

The Road Back

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It was a really tough middle of February, but late last week, the recovery and a look towards spring began. We put together a forecast for Gulfport, which, even along the Gulf Coast, endured unusually cold weather. They started bouncing back on Friday and Saturday, however, with temperatures almost touching 60 on Saturday. It’s not warm, especially in southern Mississippi, but it was getting there. To go along with the positive vibes, there was a three way tie atop the leaderboard. Accuweather, Weatherbug and Forecast.io secured the top spot.
Actuals: Friday, High 56, Low 33
Saturday – 57, Low 28

Grade: B-C

Unrelenting flurries

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Snow was reported sporadically for the first 36 hours of the forecast period in Utica. The grand total accumulation was about 2 hundredths of an inch of precipitation, which is probably less than half an inch of true accumulation. Downwind of the Great Lakes, that practically qualifies as a no snow day. Temperatures were a challenge, cooling more than expected on Saturday. Ultimately, Victoria-Weather continued our winning streak.
Actuals: Friday, Snow reported, not measured. High 28, Low 21
Saturday – .02 inches of snow, High 28, Low 7

Grade:

The last gasp of a cold spell

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When we put together our forecast for Dubuque, they were at the tail end of their extended inhabitance of a February cold spell for the record books. Wednesday dipped down all the way to -13, but the Thursday low was a relatively mild 2 above, a difference of 15 degrees. Not bad! The biggest issue with the forecast was a tendril of light snow that moved through the Mississippi Valley. It came about 12 hours later than expected, which meant that everyone missed on the precipitation forecast, even the select few who actually through it might snow. Victoria-Weather was better than the rest on temperatures, and won the forecast with ease.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 12, Low -13
Thursday- Trace of precipitation, High 18, Low 2

Grade: C-D

Hattiesburg hears thunder

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While the catastrophe in Texas has garnered many of the headlines this week, the disaster was more widespread than that. From cold weather throughout the Plains to snow and ice nearly everywhere west of the Appalachians, many people suffered loss, disruption and discomfort. In Hattiesburg, temperatures were significantly colder than normal, but at least late in the week, precipitation was all rain. There were even some rumbles of thunder on Wednesday night as the second feature of the weeklong event passed to the north. Ice was a huge problem to the north of Hattiesburg, and even with over an inch of rains, and temperatures in the 20s, before the precipitation rolled in, you might even say they were lucky. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – .93 inches of rain, High 42, Low 20
Thursday – .24 inches of rain, High 43, Low 32

Grade: B-C

Chilly air comes for Texas

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Before the weekend, we put together a forecast for Dallas that called for increasingly chilly conditions. While the low temperatures didn’t quite bottom out as cold as most outlets feared, the high temperatures were unable to reach even 60 for the entire weekend, thanks to a little wave moving through the Red River Valley. The forecast victory was split between Weatherbug and WeatherNation, who each had their own successful day. WeatherNation was nearly perfect on Saturday, while Weatherbug was far better than other comers on Sunday.
Actuals: Saturday: High 59, Low 43
Sunday: High 58, Low 38

Grade: B-C

Brunswick can’t cool down

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There was one big issue with forecasts for Brunswick last week: the overnight lows were all too warm, and more than just a little bit. It didn’t dip below 50 degrees on Thursday, which was at least 6 degrees warmer than anyone had in the forecast. It was generally warmer than forecasts called for, but those lows really stood out. Accuweather had the best overnight temperatures, and narrowly surpassed the other forecasters (especially since there was a trace of rain reported on Thursday afternoon — AW was the only outlet with rain) to achieve victory.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 70, Low 45
Thursday – Trace of rain, High 69, Low 50

Grade: C-D

Unclipped

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An Alberta Clipper has started tracking for the Upper Midwest, with a burst of snow expected in the western Great Lakes region over the weekend. The feature got it’s start in the middle of the week in, of all places, Alberta. This was key for our forecast site in Billings, which enjoyed the infusion of warm air being drawn north towards the low, and didn’t have to put up with any of the consequences, save for a breezy day on Wednesday. The forecasts were pretty similar, and there was a 4 way tie for third, but Victoria-Weather ended up securing a victory for ourselves.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 39, Low 23
Wednesday – High 50, Low 26

Grade: B-C