A little unimpressive, to be honest

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There is blistering heat across the planet this week. The United Kingdom is reaching temperatures never seen in recorded history for the British Isles. It reached 115 in Tulsa yesterday. Last week’s 99 and 100 in Redding don’t stand out quite as impressively under that light, do they? Accuweather and WeatherNation had top forecasts for the city, and even those forecasts were a little bit warmer than what actually transpired. *Yawn*
Actuals: Wednesday – High 99, Low 71
Thursday – High 100, Low 65

Grade: B-C

A fine New England weekend

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That first weekend after the 4th of July is the first intensively “summer” weekend of the year. Laze around, if you want to, go to the lake or the cabin or whatever it is that you do. That first weekend in Manchester was pretty great. Temperatures were in the 80s, and an inactive cold front Friday into Saturday morning brought dew points down a little bit, and kept it from getting uncomfortable. Victoria-Weather and Forecast.io came together for the top forecast, hedging warmer for highs and cooler for lows.
Actuals: Friday 7/8 – High 86, Low 65
Saturday 7/9 – High 82, Low 61

Grade: A – B

Making it through the mist

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We put together a forecast for Milwaukee shortly after the 4th of July, and it was not an altogether summerly forecast. Last Thursday was plenty warm, but a weak wave rippling through the region Friday made for a decidedly different day than one would expect from July. The clouds and light rain kept temperatures from rising above 72. Not exactly anyone’s idea of a hot Friday night. Forecast outlets generally didn’t want to bear the bad news that the first Friday of July wouldn’t be so wonderful, so it was the emotionless computers at Forecast.io that claimed victory.
Actuals: Thursday – High 80, Low 64
Friday – .05 inches of rain, High 72, Low 66

Grade: A-C

How the turntables

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Earlier, we posted a verification for Dubuque, in which thunderstorms showed up and surprised some of us. Well, this time around, a handful of outlets called for rain in Roanoke, and it never happened. The lingering moisture prevented low temperatures from cooling off too much, but otherwise, the lack of clouds or rain meant high temperatures were near 90. The warmer forecasts held the day, and Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel had the exact same forecast, which was the winner today.
Actuals: Friday, High 88, Low 69
Saturday – High 89, Low 67

Grade: A-B

Severely underestimated

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We have taken a bit of a hiatus this past week thanks to illness sweeping through the family, but we are back! Speaking of unwanted things sweeping through an area, let’s talk about Dubuque last week. Monday and Tuesday were hot days, and correctly forecast as such, but then, an interesting thing happened on Tuesday. Some outlets had thunderstorms on Tuesday, and some did not. The storms indeed showed up, but those stormy forecasters thought they would be fueled by hotter temperatures, which was not the case. Generally speaking, the best temperature forecasts belonged to those that kept Dubuque dry, but Weatherbug surpassed other outlets by having the best temperature forecast of outlets that forecast rain. It’s fitting that Weatherbug will claim victory, as the storms they successfully forecast for actually produced some severe weather in Eastern Iowa, and 55mph wind gusts in Dubuque.
Actuals: Monday, June 20 – High 91, Low 61
Tuesday – .1 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 95, Low 70

Grade: B-C

Grand Forks dust up

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One thing that I have come to notice about the strong area of low pressure that shot north through the Plains and into Canada is that the storm activity has been much higher than anticipated. Oh, and the heat also. It’s been warm! It was the storms that were the story in Grand Forks, however. They were not at all anticipated in any of the forecasts from the various outlets, though everyone thought the passing warm front would introduce some clouds on Saturday. The biggest surprise was that after the storms, albeit isolated, a lot of dust was kicked up in Grand Forks. The afternoon saw 2 mile visibilities thanks to the 35-40mph wind associated with the system (remember how I said it’s always windy there?), which prevented temperatures from getting out of the lower 80s, and busting forecasts across the board. It was a grimy, miserable way to spend the first day of Father’s Day weekend. Accuweather had a narrow victory, hitting on almost everything, but missing on the rain and the Saturday high.
Actuals: Friday, High 82, Low 54
Saturday – Storms reported, not measured, High 83, Low 62

Grade: C-D

Hot and stuffy

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Not only was the weather sweltering in Shreveport this week, but it stayed hot overnight, which is the worst. Morning lows of 80 meant that air conditioners were overworked, and forecasts were off, because every outlet predicted cooler temperatures by a handful of degrees. The high temperatures, mercifully, were on the cool end of our forecasts, but that still meant mid to upper 90s. This forecast combo led to a very tight race, and a three way tie at the top, with Victoria-Weather, Accuweather and Forecast.io elevating slightly above.
Actuals: Wednesday, High 96, Low 78
Thursday – High 97, Low 80

Grade: B

A cool spot

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On back to back verifications, we’ve had forecasts that overestimated forecast highs. Because of wind off San Pablo Bay, Napa was colder than forecasts expected earlier this week, and now in Johnstown, the forecast highs were also on the lower side. This time thanks to topography and clouds that settled into the valleys surrounding the Alleghenies. The difference between Johnstown and Napa is that two outlets embraced this possibility. Weatherbug took another victory, but Victoria-Weather wasn’t far behind.
Actuals: Friday, High 66, Low 52
Saturday – Rain reported, not measured, High 66, Low 54

Grade B-D

Brisk Bay Breezes bring busts

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The mountains and waterways of coastal California can lead to a need for microclimate forecasting. This seemed to be the case in Napa, where, sure, a ridge built in, but the southwest winds off San Pablo Bay, often gusting to 20mph, held sway. High temperatures never crossed into the 80s, despite there not being a single forecast lower than 81 degrees. As is typically the case when things skewed towards the low side, Weatherbug was the top forecaster, and it wasn’t particularly close.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 79, Low 51
Wednesday – High 79, Low 56

Grade: B-C

Downplaying

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Never sell the SPC short, I will stay that. In our forecast for Sioux Falls, there were only a couple of mentions of severe weather in the forecast last weekend, from ourselves and Accuweather. Meanwhile, Sioux Falls was included in the severe outlook both Saturday and Sunday, and it verified, or did awfully close to town. Saturday had hail, 2 inches in diameter just outside of town. No rain was actually reported in Sioux Falls, however, reflecting the isolated nature of the storms. Sunday was a soaker, with hail (though not as large) and strong winds around town. The low temperature forecasts were volatile, and the rain on Sunday ensured a colder day than expected, so the forecast didn’t turn out great for anyone. Weathernation sneaked in by accurately avoiding rain on Saturday and having a cool low on Sunday.
Actuals: Saturday – 92, Low 67
Sunday – .61 inches of rain, High 80, Low 61

Grade: C-D