A mediocre send off for Forecast.io

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Many lamented the loss of Forecast.io across the internet, and perhaps in honor of their impending retirement, Forecast.io did better than normal. That is to say, they finished in a tie for 4th. Lewiston withstood a Pacific storm that brought precipitation to the Cascades and Northern Rockies, and eventually to the middle of the country. Lewiston only had about an eighth of an inch of rain between the two days of our forecast period at the end of the year, and temperatures lingered just below 50 degrees. All told, it wasn’t nearly the story seen outside of the region between the Ranges. The Weather Channel rang in the new year with a victory.
Actuals: December 30th, .04 inches of rain High 50, Low 37
December 31st, .09 inches of rain, High 46, Low 36

Grade: A- C

Initial shot of cold

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Merry Christmas! Here in South Florida, temperatures haven’t climbed above 60 since we arrived, temperatures which rival those of our forecast for Goldsboro back in the middle of the month. It’s colder there now, but on the 13th and 14th, temperatures lingered in the mid to upper 40s for highs, and dipped below freezing in the mornings. It seems like this might end up being Forecast.io’s last victory. End of an era.
Actuals: December 13th, High 48, Low 30
December 14th, .01 inches of rain High 46, Low 27

Grade: A-C

Rain sneaks in at the end

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The threat for rain was introduced in every forecast for Durham back in the first week of December, but It held on to the very end of the forecast period. This allowed forecasters who skewed to a warmer forecast to get a a little bit closer to that perfect forecast. The warmest outlet of them all was Victoria-Weather, and our forecast turned out to be very good.
Actuals: December 5th, High 55, Low 31
December 6th, .08 inches of rain, High 60, Low 48

Grade: A-B

Cold and getting colder

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Everyone knows that it’s getting colder when December rolls around, so to start the month with a forecast that feature descending temperatures is insult to injury. It’s made worse by forecasts being warmer than what ultimately verified, as was the case in Tulsa at the beginning of the month. A cold front that was unencumbered with moisture brought brisk winds and chilly temperatures progressively through our forecast period. It started colder than expected and stayed that way. Accuweather had the best line on the chilly weather, not that it was a great forecast.
Actuals: December 2nd, High 59, Low 44
December 3rd, High 43, Low 29

Grade: C-D

A splashy send off to November

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Rain was on the way when we looked at Decatur at the end of the last month, and arrive it did. An inch and a third fell the morning of the 30th, sending temperatures down to below freezing by the end of the day. It was dry, fortunately, to start December, though it was cooler than it had been by quite a bit just two days before. Weatherbug nabbed this transitional forecast victory.
Actuals: Nov 30th – 1.32″ of rain, High 62, Low 31
Dec 1st – High 50, Low 26

Grade: B-C

Terrific weather by the Lake

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If any one traveled around the western Great Lakes for Thanksgiving, you will be well aware that the weather was very good. In Racine, it was generally sunny, though with a few spots of clouds here and there for the two days before Thanksgiving, and it was warm. In fact, temperatures exceeded expectations on Wednesday, climbing all the way up to 55. Now that is something to be thankful for. Victoria-Weather navigated the low temperatures in Racine the best, which was the difference in our Turkey Day triumph.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 47, Low 24
Wednesday – High 55, Low 30

Grade: C

Nicole holds up her end of the bargain

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A strong cold front moving into the middle of the country started us on a weeklong cold snap that afflicted a sizeable tract of the country. It brought heavy rain to the High Plains, but it dwindled as it progressed eastward. There was only about a tenth of an inch of rain in Jefferson City on the 11th, but it diminished from the heavy rain seen west of there thanks to Hurricane Nicole. Nicole was moving inland at the same time the cold front was passing through Missouri, and at the same time, intercepting a lot of the moisture that would have fallen on the Show Me State. It didn’t slow down the cool down, though, because it sure got chilly on the 12th! Not as chilly as the forecast said, though, which gave the shared victory to The Weather Service and Weathernation.
Actuals: November 11th, .11 inches of rain, High 49, Low 32
November 12th, High 32, Low 29

Grade: C

A big rebound

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We were forecasting down in east Texas to start the month of November, which was buried under a combination of cold air and onshore flow. College Station was even cooler than expected on the 1st, partially because of a little bit of light rain that fell on town to start the the month, and partially because of the lingering effects of a powerful early season cold front. The trough was narrow though, and temperatures bounced back vigorously on the 2nd, going from a high of 68 on the first to 79 on the 2nd. The National Weather Service collected the victory for this forecast posted on Halloween.
Actuals: Nov 1st – .05 inches of rain, High 68, Low 58
Nov 2nd – High 79, Low 54

Grade: B-C

Needed rain

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When a drought is on, there is nothing better than a long, steady rain, and at the beginning of last week, that is exactly what Columbia, Missouri got. Over two inches of rain fell between Monday and Tuesday of last week, giving the region a drink, and starting to rejuvenate the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. Everyone had rain in the forecast, and correctly prognosticated a non-standard day, though I don’t think anyone was this optimistic on total rainfall. Weatherbug had the top forecast for the day, which ultimately came down to solid temperature trending.
Actuals: Monday, Oct 24th, .59 inches of rain, High 74, Low 58
Tuesday, October 25th, 1.45 inches of rain, High 56, Low 42

Grade: B-D

Cold enough for you?

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Pocatello behaved mostly as expected, if you managed to sleep in every day. If you woke up early though on the 18th and 19th, you would find that temperatures were significantly colder than what most outlets forecast. It wasn’t a bad forecast overall for the winners (Who happened to be us, Victoria-Weather) because the high temperatures were handled well, and the precipitation threat was for later in the week. Low temperatures ended up as low as 26 on the 19th, which was a bit cooler than the 40s WeatherNation threw out there.
Actuals: October 18th, High 76, Low 30
October 19th, High 73, Low 26

Grade: C-D