Memories of Florida

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We are all a bit older, a bit wiser than when we put together our forecast last month for Fort Myers. A lingering boundary lay on the southern end of the Sunshine State, but for the most part, precipitation was staying on the Atlantic side of the Peninsula. Fort Myers is on the Gulf Coast side of Florida. I noticed this and kept rain out of the forecast, and everyone else left it in. Weatherbug had a solid enough forecast that they earned victory based on their temperatures alone, but Victora-Weather was the only one with the proper precip forecast.
Actuals: June 10th, High 90, Low 77
June 11th, High 90, Low 76

Grade: B-C

Omega in charge

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This month has been quite rainy for the southern US, but for a strip from the north central to the mid-Atlantic, it has been quite dry for a couple of weeks. It all started with an omega block, which we identified with our forecast in Allentown. Allentown remained dry, despite some storms in the area on the 6th of June, and it was quickly followed by the apocalyptic smoke that descended on the region. A little rain on any number of tracts of land between northern Canada and Allentown would have been great, but it was not to be. Victoria-Weather’s forecast sparkled, and the victory was ours.
Actuals: June 5th, High 77, Low 48
June 6th, High 79, Low 52

Grade B-C

One for the brochure

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Residents of Prescott likely live in town for one big reason. Days like those they saw at the beginning of Memorial Day weekend. Temperatures were in the mid 70s for highs with bright sunshine and cool lows overnight. Not the scorching heat to the south, no humidity and just some fantastic days to spend outdoors, really participating in any activity one might want to do. The Weather Channel and Clime were able to tie atop the leaderboard. Perhaps the forecasters can be rewarded with a trip to Prescott.
Actuals: Friday, High 75, Low 51
Saturday, High 75, Low 45

Grade: B-C

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We are in late spring at this point, and have been undergoing a somewhat early season-ish spell, in which systems were charging through the southern US, leaving the northern US unaffected. As a local resident who was battered through the winter, I fairly appreciate that. It has made for a a chillier stretch through mid-May though, and that is what Iowa City was experiencing towards the beginning of last week. Without a feature moving through on Tuesday, temperatures soared into the 80s, however the next day, a system in the Tennessee Valley brought temperatures in Iowa City back down to the low 80s for a high. Forecasts were fine, though with mostly clear skies we would all like to have done better. The Weather Service and Accuweather drew level for this forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 81, Low 57
Wednesday – High 73, Low 52

Grade: B-C

An unpleasant start to May

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Now with forecasts of severe weather and a pending heat wave, it seems like a long time ago that we were talking about the chilly start to the month, as we were in Youngstown.. Well, I guess it was, not that it is already the 14th, but I digress. There was indeed some light snow mixed with rain on the 2nd, which is far too deep into the spring season for my taste. The forecast was a pretty neat affair, with little separating the top forecast from the bottom. The Weather Service and WeatherNation split honors, with a 4 way tie for second just behind them.
Actuals: Monday, May 1st, .31 inches of rain/snow, High 46, Low 38
Tuesday, May 2nd, .39 inches of rain and snow, High 43, Low 37

Grade. A-B

The best day of spring?

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I think that there is fairly universal consensus that the best kind of weather is where highs are in the 60s – warm but not too hot- with plenty of sun. As it worked out, that is exactly the weather that Pine Bluff saw on April 24th. The 23rd was cooler with some rain, which made the 24th seem even better. It felt the best, perhaps, for the Weather Service and WeatherNation, who tied for the top forecast.
Actuals: April 23rd: .03 inches of rain, High 57, Low 46
April 24th, High 66, Low 43

Grade: A-D

The thrill of an early spring

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Let’s all look back fondly at the middle of April. Warm temperatures and generally sunny skies dominated a lot of the middle of the country. That started slowly eroding, and now with the advance of a strong cold front tonight in the Mississippi Valley, is disintegrating quickly. But last week, think Wednesday and Thursday of last week in Canton was brilliant. Highs in the upper 70s to near 80 with nary a cloud in the sky. Clime and The Weather Channel each tied for the top forecast, which weren’t as good as expected, because the weather was even better than anyone ever imagined.
Actuals: Wednesday. April 12th, High 77, Grade 55
Thursday, April 13th, High 80, Low 54

Grade: B-C

Calm ahead of the storm

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It’s been an active start to the tornado season, with the most deadly storm arriving in Mississippi at the end of March. Nearby Dothan was the target of our forecast on March 22nd, and even then, we were watching storms developing in the southern Plains and speculating on what they mean for Dothan. Fortunately for our forecast outlets, they merely brought some warmer air and morning fog, at least during the forecast period. The swell of Gulf moisture was fairly well anticipated, and was among the factors in this well anticipated severe season. For Dothan, the top forecaster was Weatherbug, an outlet in sore need of a pick-me-up. Good on them.
Actuals: March 23rd, High 79, Low 56
March 24th, High 81, Low 59

Grade: A-C

A healthy drink in Utica

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An important part of the winter cycle in the north is the storage of water in the snowpack that will sustain and help nourish the first buds of spring time. It has been a warm, dry winter in the mid-Atlantic, so the next best thing is rain, like what fell on St. Patrick’s day in Utica. They received over a half an inch of rain, with a mostly inconsequential spot of flurry activity on the Saturday after. Usually the rainy systems with changing precip types are calamitous in the temperature forecast, but perhaps with a bit of the luck of the Irish, forecasts were quite good all around. The National Weather Service gained the W.
Actuals: March 17th, .58 inches of rain, High 45, Low 32
March 18th, .05 inches of liquid in snow, High 38, Low 25

Grade: A-B

Spring is not here yet

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Fond du Lac was seeing the last few flakes of a weak snow system when we issued their forecast a week and a half ago. It snows in March, that’s not unusual. In fact, March is one of the snowiest months of the year for the north central US. What was unusual was that on Tuesday, temperatures dropped down to single digits, well below normal. Victoria-Weather had a chilly outlook, securing the victory for the home team.
Actuals: March 13th, .07 inches of liquid in snow, High 29, Low 19|
March 14th, High 31, Low 7

Grade: A-C