Portland prepares

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Back before my vacation, at the beginning of October, we looked at Portland, which was readying for a cool down and the advance of an autumnal area of low pressure coming out of the Gulf of Alaska. The rain never arrived, and wasn’t expected to, before the forecast period expired. Temperatures did cool off by 20 degrees, though, a jarring first taste of autumn for the Pacific Northwest. It is odd to think that the high temperatures that Portland ended up at are still 20 degrees warmer than I’m at Victoria-Weather HQ right now. Perhaps as a consolation, we can acknowledge that V-W earned the victory with some room to spare.
Actuals: October 7th, High 79, Low 50
October 8th, High 60, Low 52

Grade: A-C

A quiet Gulf is a happy Gulf.

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A lot of the conversation along the Gulf Coast this spring has involved varying degrees of the sentiment “Wow, it sure has been quiet!” And so it was when we forecast in Gulfport to round out September. The forecasts across the board lined up with the temperatures, which hit close to 90 in the afternoons. The Weather Channel was the top performer, but everyone should be happy with their score.
Actuals: September 29th, High 89, Low 70
September 30th, High 90, Low 70

Grade: A-B

And you say this is September?

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When forecasting temperatures in the upper 80s, you wouldn’t be surprised, I imagine, to see those show up in Iowa. You would, however, be surprised to have them show up on the cusp of October, as they did in Davenport on the 28th and 29th of the month. it wasn’t a true surprise, of course, as this was well handled by the meteorologists. In fact, the biggest area of error was in the low temperature forecasts. The skies were too clear, and temperatures fell off more than anyone had in the forecast. Accuweather had the top spot in the Quad Cities,
Actuals: September 28th, High 88, Low 56
September 29th, High 89, Low 52

Grade: A-C

Lessons Learned

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The forecast in Denver followed our misadventures in Fort Collins. The pattern was a little less thorny than the one in Fort Collins, but the tricks of geography remained, and the weather wasn’t about to be perfect. Did we do any better with this one? Yes! I would say we did! Clime even hit on the precipitation forecast, which was better than anyone else could say. The key to success was to be more pessimistic about the 5th, and optimistic about the 6th, which was not how most anyone went, rewarding the outlets that saw a brighter future. The top grade was still a C, which isn’t great, but it IS better than anything we saw in Fort Collins. I’ll take the win! Well, Clime will take the win, I just mean I appreciate the improvement.
Actuals: 9/5 – .01 inches for rain, HIgh 64, Low 51
9/6 – High 82, Low 46

Grade: C-F

In my own world

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Usually, when I put together my forecasts, I like to see what other outlets are saying. We are all using NWS models, so why shouldn’t we look at their forecasts a little bit as well? Anyways, I clearly forgot to do that with our forecast in Atlantic City, because my low temperature forecasts were 5 or 6 degrees cooler than everyone else. Surely I would have at least called that out in the summary at the end of the forecast. Whatever the case, I was right, and Victoria-Weather, with our cool overnight lows won the forecast in the same way the nights passed in Atlantic City — comfortably.
Monday – .01 inches of rain, High 75, Low 55
Tuesday – High 76, Low 54

Grade: B-F

Nonsense

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Chalk one up for the Front Range. Fort Collins’ forecast didn’t quite go as anticipated. Most notably, after a cold front moved through Friday into Saturday, temperatures… climbed into the low 80s. Then, the day when westerly flow arrived with the next feature (Sunday) the expected warm downslope flow was actually cool. Temperatures dropped nearly 10 degrees. Weatherbug was 10 degrees off on their high temperature on Saturday. They missed out on first place by 1 degree. Does that paint the picture for you? The Weather Channel and Accuweather converged at the top.
Actuals: Saturday: .01″ of rain, High 82, Low 64
Sunday: .07″ of rain, High 74, Low 58

Grade: C-D

It’s a …. heat

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One could interpret my headline in two different ways. The … representing a gap where one might typically say a “dry” heat, but it wasn’t that in Midland during our forecast period. Nor was it obnoxiously humid, with dew points dipping into the 50s overnight. Or, you could interpret it as a heat, as in a dead heat, because three outlets drew level this time around. The Weather Channel, Weather Service AND WeatherNation ended with the same score. Two forecasts down this month, and two results with a 4 way then a 3 way tie.
Actuals: August 14th, High 99, Low 74
August 15th, High 96, Low 78

Grade: A=B

Everyone is invited!

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It was a hot time in Pine Bluff on the 7th and 8th of the month. Of course, that is when we put together our forecast for the city, one that resulted in temperatures in the mid to upper 90s during the day, and temps that wouldn’t cool out of the mid 70s overnight. Uncomfortable, to be sure, but all outlets were pretty comfortable with each other’s forecast. There was a 4 way tie at the top, and only three degrees of difference separating top and bottom. It was The Weather Channel, Weather Service, WeatherNation and Clime all conglomerating at the top.
Actuals: August 7th, High 94, Low 73
August 8th, High 97, Low 76

Grade: B-C

Marine Layer consistency

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It gets hot and stays hot in the central valleys of California, but when you are butted up against the coast, on the west side of the Coastal Range, and without a corridor of wind form the Great Basin, it stays fairly cool, with clouds and sometimes, but not in the case of San Luis Obispo, a stray shower within the fog. Like I said, it was dry, and quite comfortable for our forecast at the end of July into the beginning of August. The Weather Service and WeatherNation drew level for the forecast, and anyone who strayed too far from the mid-70s ended up looking foolish.
Actuals: July 31st, High 75, Low 56
August 1st, High 73, Low 54

Grade: A – D

Succumbing to the storms

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The end of July and beginning of August was a particularly stormy time for the north central US. It wasn’t all bad though, because it sure wiped out the heat wave that had buffeted the country. In Danville, temperatures on the 30th were near 90. After storms rolled through overnight, the 31st saw a high temperature of only 75. The dew point was still fairly warm, but that’s significantly more comfortable (were it not for the lingering smoke from the Canadian wildfires.) Never fear, summer isn’t over yet, and it is getting hot once again. The Weather Channel never cooled off, and won their third forecast in a row.
Actuals: July 30th, .02″ of rain, High 89, Low 69
July 31st, .29″ of rain, High 75, Low 64

Grade: A-C