Not so spooky season

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At the end of October, the North Carolina Coastal Plains saw quite a bit of rain. Fortunately, it started to turn off right before Halloween. In Burlington, there was a trickle on the 30th, and most of it cleared out before the majority of people were awake. Then, on Halloween, it was even nicer, with clear skies and temperatures that rebounded into the 60s. A little chilly for an evening of trick-or-treating, but surely a fair sight better than many were probably expecting. Unless they were looking at the forecast from the Weather Service or Weather Nation, I guess, because those two knocked this forecast out of the park.
Actuals: October 30th, .06″ of rain, High 63, Low 49
Halloween – High 62, Low 39

Grade: A-C

A good day for everyone (except Durham)

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Rarely do we see a day in which forecasts across the board grade out at an A for everyone. It’s unheard of for a couple of days that were as miserable as they were in Durham a couple days before Halloween. Temperatures lingered in the 50s, suppressed by a feature moving through the Carolinas and smothering the region with rain and wind. On the 28th, the winds gusted to nearly 40mph to go along with the 3/4″ of rain. The weather was miserable, but the weather followed along with what everyone anticipated. This meant this was a three way draw between Victoria-Weather, The Weather Channel and Accuweather. Everyone crowded behind us in a well fought, well done forecast battle.
Actuals: October 28th, .76″ of rain, High 51, Low 48
October 29th, .07″ of rain, High 57, low 48

Grade: A

Rain that just won’t stop

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I have a general rule of thumb in the winter. I won’t believe it is done snowing until it is actually done snowing. If there are flurries, I’m just going to keep those flurries in the forecast. There are thermodynamic reasons for this that maybe I can get into at another time. Those thermodynamic reasons don’t apply to light rain showers, but perhaps I should have heeded that “just leave it in the forecast” ethos when forecasting for Elkhart last month. Rain looked like it was on the way out of town when I produced the forecast, but it didn’t leave on Thursday the 23rd, as I assumed it would. It also didn’t leave on Friday, which more of us didn’t think was the future in Elkhart. This soggy end of the week was best handled by the National Weather Service, who collected a forecast win.
Actuals October 23rd: .07″ of rain, High 51, Low 37
October 24th, .02″ of rain, High 53, Low 34

Grade: C-D

Hold on tight!

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We assembled a forecast for Dover ahead of the Nor’Easter that shook up the East Coast earlier this month. Yeah, it rained, sure temperatures came down, but I really wanted to see what the wind registered at. It gusted to nearly 40MPH on Sunday the 12th! After the hatches were properly battened, we could appreciate a good clustering of forecasts. Ultimately, the National Weather Service narrowly overcame the other outlets.
Actuals: October 11th, .11 inches of rain, High 69, Low 52
October 12th, .43 inches of rain, High 66, Low 57

Grade: B-C

Portland prepares

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Back before my vacation, at the beginning of October, we looked at Portland, which was readying for a cool down and the advance of an autumnal area of low pressure coming out of the Gulf of Alaska. The rain never arrived, and wasn’t expected to, before the forecast period expired. Temperatures did cool off by 20 degrees, though, a jarring first taste of autumn for the Pacific Northwest. It is odd to think that the high temperatures that Portland ended up at are still 20 degrees warmer than I’m at Victoria-Weather HQ right now. Perhaps as a consolation, we can acknowledge that V-W earned the victory with some room to spare.
Actuals: October 7th, High 79, Low 50
October 8th, High 60, Low 52

Grade: A-C

A quiet Gulf is a happy Gulf.

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A lot of the conversation along the Gulf Coast this spring has involved varying degrees of the sentiment “Wow, it sure has been quiet!” And so it was when we forecast in Gulfport to round out September. The forecasts across the board lined up with the temperatures, which hit close to 90 in the afternoons. The Weather Channel was the top performer, but everyone should be happy with their score.
Actuals: September 29th, High 89, Low 70
September 30th, High 90, Low 70

Grade: A-B

And you say this is September?

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When forecasting temperatures in the upper 80s, you wouldn’t be surprised, I imagine, to see those show up in Iowa. You would, however, be surprised to have them show up on the cusp of October, as they did in Davenport on the 28th and 29th of the month. it wasn’t a true surprise, of course, as this was well handled by the meteorologists. In fact, the biggest area of error was in the low temperature forecasts. The skies were too clear, and temperatures fell off more than anyone had in the forecast. Accuweather had the top spot in the Quad Cities,
Actuals: September 28th, High 88, Low 56
September 29th, High 89, Low 52

Grade: A-C

Lessons Learned

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The forecast in Denver followed our misadventures in Fort Collins. The pattern was a little less thorny than the one in Fort Collins, but the tricks of geography remained, and the weather wasn’t about to be perfect. Did we do any better with this one? Yes! I would say we did! Clime even hit on the precipitation forecast, which was better than anyone else could say. The key to success was to be more pessimistic about the 5th, and optimistic about the 6th, which was not how most anyone went, rewarding the outlets that saw a brighter future. The top grade was still a C, which isn’t great, but it IS better than anything we saw in Fort Collins. I’ll take the win! Well, Clime will take the win, I just mean I appreciate the improvement.
Actuals: 9/5 – .01 inches for rain, HIgh 64, Low 51
9/6 – High 82, Low 46

Grade: C-F

In my own world

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Usually, when I put together my forecasts, I like to see what other outlets are saying. We are all using NWS models, so why shouldn’t we look at their forecasts a little bit as well? Anyways, I clearly forgot to do that with our forecast in Atlantic City, because my low temperature forecasts were 5 or 6 degrees cooler than everyone else. Surely I would have at least called that out in the summary at the end of the forecast. Whatever the case, I was right, and Victoria-Weather, with our cool overnight lows won the forecast in the same way the nights passed in Atlantic City — comfortably.
Monday – .01 inches of rain, High 75, Low 55
Tuesday – High 76, Low 54

Grade: B-F

Nonsense

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Chalk one up for the Front Range. Fort Collins’ forecast didn’t quite go as anticipated. Most notably, after a cold front moved through Friday into Saturday, temperatures… climbed into the low 80s. Then, the day when westerly flow arrived with the next feature (Sunday) the expected warm downslope flow was actually cool. Temperatures dropped nearly 10 degrees. Weatherbug was 10 degrees off on their high temperature on Saturday. They missed out on first place by 1 degree. Does that paint the picture for you? The Weather Channel and Accuweather converged at the top.
Actuals: Saturday: .01″ of rain, High 82, Low 64
Sunday: .07″ of rain, High 74, Low 58

Grade: C-D