A crisp start to the new year

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Our first forecast of the year took us to Atlantic City, which was bracketed by waves to the north and south. They pushed each other away, which kept Atlantic City dry. That’s great news for New Jerseyans, but also the people who enjoy accurate forecasts. Temperatures were pretty reliable, including the bump in temperature on Sunday as low pressure scooted through western Atlantic. The first forecast of the year was a shared victory for The Weather Channel and National Weather Service.
Actuals: Saturday – High 33, Low 19
Sunday – High 38, Low 26

Grade – B – Just a reminder, this year our grade now represents the consensus score for all forecasters. A b for the group is pretty good!

Forget the chestnuts, make sure you’ve got the open fire

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Reno, like many location in the western US, had a rough go of things over Christmas. On Christmas Eve, in addition to some light snow mixing in, Reno saw 1.28″ of rain, and another .28″ of rain on Christmas Day, which accounts for about 20% of the expected ANNUAL rainfall in Reno. Temperature rebounded on Christmas to ensure all precipitation came as rain, but it was definitely a good day to spend indoors. Clime, which has absolutely no holiday spirit, successfully envisioned this forecast, and got the daily win.
Actuals: Wednesday – 1.28″ of rain and snow, High 53, Low 32
Thursday – .28″ of rain, High 50, Low 37

Grade: C-D

Happy New Year, all!

Trouble in NorCal

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Precipitation in California has exceeded all expectations. This is the time of year that the state gets most of its rain, and usually, they can expect a couple of good soakers and impressive snow totals in the Sierras when it happens. The rain doesn’t often fall as intensely in the Central Valley, in addition to the western facing hill sides, as it has this month. Redding, which is at the far northern end of the central California valley system, and called the “sunniest city in California”, was forecast to get some showers during our forecast on the 16th and 17th of December. Instead, it was the beginning of a grueling weeklong stretch of flash flooding and disaster just before Christmas. For our forecast period, Redding saw over an inch and a half of rain, which is quite a bit for anywhere, and certainly a lot for Redding, which has now received twice their monthly expected total for December, already one of the wettest months of the year in northern California. The forecast was fairly well handled on the temperature side, but the quantity of rain was surely underestimated. The Weather Channel had the top forecast.
Actuals: December 16th, .96″ of rain, High 48, Low 44
December 17th, .72″ of rain, High 52, Low 43

Grade: A-C

Not quite Hot, but not as cold.

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The headlines have all switched as we look ahead to Christmas. A lot of the country is going to see temperatures that are much warmer than normal, which is an about face after a particularly brisk beginning to the month. Our forecast in Hot Springs called for temperatures that were below freezing on Sunday and Monday morning. Fortunately, with the clear skies in the afternoon, temperatures were able to bounce back, and highs were warmer than the forecasts called for, even if they weren’t “warm” per se. Clime came away with the top forecast.
Actuals: Last Sunday, High 42, Low 22
Last Monday, High 47, Low 20

Grade: B-D

Failure to launch

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It was a chilly weekend last weekend, particularly Sunday, in north Texas. We had a forecast for Sherman, and we knew that it was going to cool down, but clearly, we weren’t fully appreciative of how cold it was going to get. Accuweather had the top forecast for the weekend, and even they were 10 degrees too warm on the Sunday high of 37. Fortunately for them, that was the one really big issue they had, successfully navigating the rest of the forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – High 66, Low 35
Sunday – High 37, Low 26

Grade: C-D

The first, not the worst

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December came with a punch of cold air to the Upper Mississippi Valley, with the first subzero temperatures of the season arriving in La Crosse on the 4th. Fortunately, it wasn’t quite as chilly as the forecasts called for (except, ironically, Weatherbug). Unfortunately, it was a precursor to the vicious cold snap coming this weekend. Wind chills will easily eclipse -20 tomorrow morning. If you want to think warm thoughts, think about the warm fuzzy feeling The Weather Channel must have for nailing the forecast from back on the second. That should do it, right?
Actuals: December 3rd, .03″ of precipitation, as snow, High 30, Low 8
December 4th, High 15, Low -2

Grade: A-D

I can’t believe I missed this

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I verified Raleigh earlier this week, and completely skipped over the verification for Providence. This was a busy forecast, with some rain coming into the area just as Thanksgiving was drawing near. There was rain on both Wednesday and a bit of a splash on Thanksgiving Day. As promised, the weather cleared by afternoon, which allowed locals to get out of the house and go for a walk to allow all that turkey to digest. The rainfall wasn’t universally included in the forecast, which really shuffled the standings. Weatherbug had the top temperature forecast, but fell back into a tie with Victoria-Weather – which makes me even more irritated I missed the verification! -for first place.
Actuals: November 26th, .18″ of rain, High 59, Low 53
Thanksgiving – .01″ of rain, High 55, Low 37

Grade: B-C

A long line of wet weather

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We visited Raleigh at the end of November, which was in the midst of a soggy stretch that, frankly, is still ongoing. It’s been such a warm autumn, and the past few winters were so mild, it’s kind of bracing to see such a chill to the air as far south as the Carolinas. But we did indeed see some temperatures that were near freezing and didn’t even get out of the 40s for the first day of December. That particular day was colder than anyone had in mind, and certainly colder than anyone in Raleigh appreciated. If you want a cold forecast, Weatherbug is your place to be, and they secured the win on this occasion.
Actuals: November 30th, .22″ of rain, High 52, Low 35
December 1st, High 45, Low 35

Grade: B-C

Birmingham’s Not-So-Stormy Weekend

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Ahead of the Thanksgiving travel season, a storm system passed through the American southeast before petering out in the mid-Atlantic. There were some outlets that thought that it could lead to a bit of a severe weather outbreak around our forecast destination of Birmingham last Friday and Saturday, but fortunately, that didn’t come to pass. The whole feature was a bit messier than it could have been, and left some light showers in the region on Saturday as well as Friday, and didn’t bring the cold pool behind it that was in the forecast for some. It hit 80 last Saturday! Clime came away with the top forecast, thanks to a being one of the warmer forecasts on Saturday.
Actuals: Friday . 06″ of rain, High 71, Low 57
Saturday .03″ of rain, High 80, Low 55

Grade: A-C

A breach of protocol

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Generally, when I put together a verification, which this post is, I use WeatherforMe.com’s “closest NWS site” option. For Santa Cruz, that site is San Martin, 25 miles away from Santa Cruz, and crucially, on the other side of the Santa Cruz Mountains. Temperatures there at initial check were about 15 degrees warmer than forecasts, and another 5-10 degrees colder for overnights. I decided to opt for the road less traveled, and used a MADIS site in town. It was still warmer than expected, but not as egregiously so. The arrival of a feature on the West Coast had effectively drawn the low scud away from the coast and allowed high temperatures to infiltrate. High temps on the 8th and 9th were both warmer than anyone had in the forecast, but low temperatures lined up. Accuweather had the best forecast. Would they have if we verified against a completely different climate?
Actuals: November 8th, High 76, Low 51
November 9th, High 77, Low 53

Grade: B-C