Underdelivered

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At the beginning of February, we looked at the forecast in Janesville. From outlet to outlet, there were varying degrees of snow in the forecast for the 6th, from flurries to Clime calling for heavy snow. There certainly was snow in Wisconsin on that Friday, but none of it was reported in Janesville. It came down to temperatures, as it often does. The cool down was particularly well forecast across the board, however the warmth ahead of the snow was underestimated, leading to widespread forecast error. The real issue was how much the temperatures would cool that night, which meant that the warmest low temperature forecast ended up winning the entire forecast. The Weather Channel was the winner.
Actuals: February 6th, High 40, Low 18
February 7th, High 24, Low 9

Grade; C

Coming out of the deep freeze

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At the beginning of the month, we took a look at Ames, Iowa‘s weather. It was a towards the end of the prolonged icy grip on the middle of the country, and temperatures were trying to warm up a bit. The cold wasn’t ready to let go, however, and temperatures never breached the freezing line. The snow remained out of the picture, which was some modicum of relief, and with the benefit of hindsight, we can see that it eventually would get warmer in Ames. The forecast was interesting. The consensus forecast was nearly the best one, but WeatherNation ended up earning their own spot on top of the leaderboard.
Actuals: February 2nd, High 27, Low 21
February 3rd High 29, Low 16

Grade: B

Primed and ready

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As I noted in our discussion of the massive storm that came through last weekend, the region had aready been preconditioned, and was chilly, particularly for this part of the world. We saw that in the forecast for Rome, Georgia, which we issued the weekend before, and saw temperatures dive into the 20s, which is unusual in Georgia! Generally, though, there were a couple of times, the high temperature on Monday the 19th, and especially the low temperature on Tuesday the 20th, that were warmer than expected by a few degrees, Accuweather was the warmest forecaster on those two times, and came through with the win. Sidebar: I’m just now realizing our last two verifications were for Florence and Rome. How continental!
Actuals: January 19th, High 50, Low 27
January 20th, High 46, Low 27

Grade: C

The first wintry of blasts

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The weather has been so bad that even in this of all weeks, it has broken through as a major headline in many markets. A week and a half ago, we looked at Florence, Alabama, which was preparing for a cold front that would ultimately be a pittance to what was received this weekend. There was a quick shot of rain on the 14th, after which temperatures started dropping, though not nearly as quickly as some believed. It only got down to 35 before the 15th rolled around The sun was out for Florence, but it wasn’t working, and the high never cleared 40. It was a good forecast over all, with The Weather Channel earning the top spot.
Actuals: January 14th, .08″ of rain, High 50, Low 35
January 15th, High 39, Low 23

Grade: B

A crisp start to the new year

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Our first forecast of the year took us to Atlantic City, which was bracketed by waves to the north and south. They pushed each other away, which kept Atlantic City dry. That’s great news for New Jerseyans, but also the people who enjoy accurate forecasts. Temperatures were pretty reliable, including the bump in temperature on Sunday as low pressure scooted through western Atlantic. The first forecast of the year was a shared victory for The Weather Channel and National Weather Service.
Actuals: Saturday – High 33, Low 19
Sunday – High 38, Low 26

Grade – B – Just a reminder, this year our grade now represents the consensus score for all forecasters. A b for the group is pretty good!

Forget the chestnuts, make sure you’ve got the open fire

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Reno, like many location in the western US, had a rough go of things over Christmas. On Christmas Eve, in addition to some light snow mixing in, Reno saw 1.28″ of rain, and another .28″ of rain on Christmas Day, which accounts for about 20% of the expected ANNUAL rainfall in Reno. Temperature rebounded on Christmas to ensure all precipitation came as rain, but it was definitely a good day to spend indoors. Clime, which has absolutely no holiday spirit, successfully envisioned this forecast, and got the daily win.
Actuals: Wednesday – 1.28″ of rain and snow, High 53, Low 32
Thursday – .28″ of rain, High 50, Low 37

Grade: C-D

Happy New Year, all!

Trouble in NorCal

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Precipitation in California has exceeded all expectations. This is the time of year that the state gets most of its rain, and usually, they can expect a couple of good soakers and impressive snow totals in the Sierras when it happens. The rain doesn’t often fall as intensely in the Central Valley, in addition to the western facing hill sides, as it has this month. Redding, which is at the far northern end of the central California valley system, and called the “sunniest city in California”, was forecast to get some showers during our forecast on the 16th and 17th of December. Instead, it was the beginning of a grueling weeklong stretch of flash flooding and disaster just before Christmas. For our forecast period, Redding saw over an inch and a half of rain, which is quite a bit for anywhere, and certainly a lot for Redding, which has now received twice their monthly expected total for December, already one of the wettest months of the year in northern California. The forecast was fairly well handled on the temperature side, but the quantity of rain was surely underestimated. The Weather Channel had the top forecast.
Actuals: December 16th, .96″ of rain, High 48, Low 44
December 17th, .72″ of rain, High 52, Low 43

Grade: A-C

Not quite Hot, but not as cold.

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The headlines have all switched as we look ahead to Christmas. A lot of the country is going to see temperatures that are much warmer than normal, which is an about face after a particularly brisk beginning to the month. Our forecast in Hot Springs called for temperatures that were below freezing on Sunday and Monday morning. Fortunately, with the clear skies in the afternoon, temperatures were able to bounce back, and highs were warmer than the forecasts called for, even if they weren’t “warm” per se. Clime came away with the top forecast.
Actuals: Last Sunday, High 42, Low 22
Last Monday, High 47, Low 20

Grade: B-D

Failure to launch

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It was a chilly weekend last weekend, particularly Sunday, in north Texas. We had a forecast for Sherman, and we knew that it was going to cool down, but clearly, we weren’t fully appreciative of how cold it was going to get. Accuweather had the top forecast for the weekend, and even they were 10 degrees too warm on the Sunday high of 37. Fortunately for them, that was the one really big issue they had, successfully navigating the rest of the forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – High 66, Low 35
Sunday – High 37, Low 26

Grade: C-D

The first, not the worst

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December came with a punch of cold air to the Upper Mississippi Valley, with the first subzero temperatures of the season arriving in La Crosse on the 4th. Fortunately, it wasn’t quite as chilly as the forecasts called for (except, ironically, Weatherbug). Unfortunately, it was a precursor to the vicious cold snap coming this weekend. Wind chills will easily eclipse -20 tomorrow morning. If you want to think warm thoughts, think about the warm fuzzy feeling The Weather Channel must have for nailing the forecast from back on the second. That should do it, right?
Actuals: December 3rd, .03″ of precipitation, as snow, High 30, Low 8
December 4th, High 15, Low -2

Grade: A-D