It was a warm, rainy Christmas for the middle of the country, and just generally warm in the eastern third. The only areas that got a more traditional Christmas were in the northern High Plains and Rockies, which accounts for a very small fraction of the nation’s population. It’s all part of a month long trend, where temperatures have been warm enough that it’s inescapable that this will be the warmest December on record for a lot of places.

Temperatures to start 2024 look like they will continue to be warmer than normal, even after this first cold intrusion the country is undergoing in what seems like months. The jet is going to become established over the southern US at the same time, though, and this is going to start paying dividends, in the form of temperatures coming in line with normal, or in the southern US, cooler than normal.

The south riding jet is going to allow cool air to filter into the lower 48, but that isn’t the whole story. This jet will be strong and wavy, which means it will be active as well. An atmospheric river, so to speak. The strong areas of low pressure moving from the southwestern US and through the southern tier of states will help in keeping temperatures suppressed. To the north, where it is less likely to cloud over during the day, temperatures won’t end up on the cold side of normal. ‘

Right around normal is still awfully chilly for the northern US, so winter is going to feel more like winter. If that is too much to handle, then rest assured, things are going to get warm fro a lot of the country once again by the end of the month, according to the CPC’s forecast.

A strong area of low pressure is coming out of the Gulf of Mexico is presently leading to a slight risk of severe weather across the Florida, with wind and tornadoes possible in the Sunshine State overnight tonight. The storm will cross north Florida overnight tonight and track into the Carolina Plains by the end of the day tomorrow.

The storm will continue northward, with the center of the storm moving north through the Hudson River Valley on Monday morning, eventually arriving in Canada by nightfall. Storms will be possible tonight in Florida, as I noted, and along the Carolina coast tomorrow, with the severe threat winding down as the system smashes New York and New England.

One thing to note is the track of the storm. With these coastal storms, the warm side is to the east, the cold to the west. With the center of the storm expected to pass over New York and head northward, the entirety of New England will be in the warm sector for the storm until the heaviest of the precipitation is through. This is going to be a wind and rain event for the largest population centers.

Without a deep cold trough, the heavily accumulating snow is going to come for the Appalachians and down stream from Lake Erie. This snow will also wait until after the main thrust of the season is in the Maritimes, and will be related to the post system flow from the northwest.

The last work week of 2023 is going to be fairly unpleasant for a lot of people, and will slow down travel plans, but it could be worse. This is a strong fall like system, and not a true winter nor’easter. While travel will be slowed, it will bounce back quickly with plenty of time for the holiday.

November started off strong for Victoria-Weather, but it didn’t necessarily end that way. The top spot instead went to the most consistent member of our cohort. Clime didn’t win any individual forecasts, but was able to win the month of November.

It’s been a pretty warm start to the winter, but a classically set up nor’easter is headed for New England tomorrow and Monday. There is the strong area of low pressure able to tap into Gulf Moisture, and attached occluded low bringing in colder air. Voila, you have the ingredients for a snow storm.

There is one thing that is not there though – enough cold air already in place. Because of the lack of chill to the air, the snow will fall abundantly, but is not going to make it to the coast.

Even if this isn’t going to be an impactful event for the largest population centers, it will certainly be a pretty good bit of news for snowmobilers and ski resorts in the area.

Wow, what a busy, wild Atlantic Hurricane season it has been! Oh, you don’t think so?

Let me run through some stats for you. There were 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. That’s a higher than normal number of named storms, and about average on the hurricanes and major storms. Do any of them really stand out in your mind?

Hilary was a Pacific storm that inundated the southwestern US. Otis, North America’s most deadly storm, also came from the Pacific before it blasted Acapulco last month. The Pacific was certainly busier than normal, and saw more storms spiral back into the mainland than normal.

Rare is the season that we remember the Pacific more vividly than the Atlantic, but here we are. The three strongest storms in the Atlantic were Franklin, Idalia and Lee. Lee was the strongest, but managed to avoid large land masses when he was at the strongest, ultimately making landfall in Nova Scotia as a shadow of his former self.

Idalia, if any, is the storm we will remember. Insurance adjusters certainly will, but fortunately, the deadliest, most costly storm of the season claimed just 7 lives, despite hitting impoverished Hispaniola, Cuba and the Yucatan before landfalling in Florida near Apalachee Bay. Idalia did bring some incidental flooding and wind issues to Tampa and Tallahassee, but didn’t make a direct impact on any major population centers, blunting the loss of life as well as reducing the total damages.

In a period of history when we have dealt with deadly storms quite regularly, it’s great to have a year that was more fortunate. Make no mistake, though, this wasn’t a quiet year, just one where the storms kept their distance from the mainland.

It was a busy month of forecasting in October, but the only thing spooky about the month in the end was how closely contested it was. Only the National Weather Service failed to secure even a share of a forecast victory during the month. That meant the rest of the outlets were neck and neck. There was a three way tie for third, and they were only shortly behind Accuweather, who got the slim win.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
Victoria-Weather	7.83
The Weather Channel	5.33
Clime	5.33
WeatherNation	3.5
Weatherbug	3.5
Accuweather	3
National Weather Service	2.5

A site that review every time I am thinking about the weather is the Aviation Weather Services Decision Support page. The “ADDs” page had observations and flight conditions for every site in the country, initially, and after some updates, any site with an observation in the world. It was a great, easily digestible first stop when looking at the weather.

As is usually the case with life and the internet, the ADD’s page changed. Actually, it pretty much went away, replaced by something new, the Aviation Weather home page. It’s even better. The AWC released an introductory video that walks you through the site.

The new site does some great things. First, it combines all the most useful elements to paint a picture of current conditions, from those terminal observations to radar and satellite imagery. Also on the site, you can find winter weather and all sorts of other governmental forecast sites. There are a couple of different selectable choices, namely the Winter Weather Dashboard and Traffic flow Management Portals, selectable through the Tools option at the top of the page, that serve as clearing houses for important weather links, including the Storm Prediction Center. or the HRRR model.

Poke around it, certainly, to see if there is anything in it for you. I know I’ll be back there learning all of her tricks nearly every day of the week.

We were light on formal forecasts in September, but that doesn’t take away from how big a weather time it was, from flooding rains to tropical storms, we covered a lot of ground. Of course, not much for the verified forecasts, but that’s fine, and it worked out well for Clime, who took the top spot for the month.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
Victoria-Weather	6.83
The Weather Channel	4.83
Clime	3.83
National Weather Service	2.5
WeatherNation	2.5
Weatherbug	2.5
Accuweather	2

In some parts of the country, the countdown to sub-freezing temperatures is on. There is already snow in the forecast for higher peaks out west. The clock is ticking for people that are still soaking up the last bits of summer like weather. The brief sojourn through autumn only brings us one place: Winter.

Temperatures are usually all over the place, even if there is a general trend to a season. Even on the warmest winters, I only remember the coldest days, for example. What really separates winters is how much snow you get through the chilly season.

The beginning of 2024 remains to be seen, but to conclude the 2023, CPC’ has the outlook for those final three months. ‘s outlook doesn’t suggest anything too out of the ordinary.

If you were here earlier, you’ll remember that the Gulf Coast was in a drought, and a sloppy fall will help that. Don’t expect a lot of major early season systems, but there will be a few, emerging in the high Plains and headed for the Great Lakes. There will be snow, but not blizzards.

This is, of course, a look at October through December. For those that aren’t ready for summer, at least in the eastern two thirds of the country, the end of September and the beginning of October are going to be notably warmer than normal.

It’s going to be a bit of a rainy weekend in Minneapolis-St. Paul this weekend. Hooray! The first batch of rain will arrive late this evening, giving way to a bit of a break tomorrow, followed by the threat for strong thunderstorms (though the heaviest storms will come south of Minnesota) on Saturday, and some lingering rain on Sunday. The area needs to be replenished, but of course, it is all coming on the weekend.