Maybe it’s because we have spent so much time at home, but we got through a lot of forecasts in April. I prefer reviewing those months, because we really get a taste for how successful everyone was. This month, it was even a fairly close race, letting us know there were some good forecasters last month. In the end it was Accuweather who grabbed the top prize for the month. Let’s look at the individual wins, though.

Outlet	Month wins
Accuweather	2
National Weather Service	1.83
The Weather Channel	1.5
Weatherbug	1.33
Forecast.io	1
WeatherNation	0.33
Victoria-Weather

That brings us to the totals for the year.

Outlet	Month wins	year wins
The Weather Channel	1.5	6
Weatherbug	1.33	5.16
Victoria-Weather		4.75
WeatherNation	0.33	3.41
National Weather Service	1.83	3.08
Accuweather	2	2.25
Forecast.io	1	1.33

With a commanding lead that, it should be no surprise that The Weather Channel is indeed in the lead for forecaster of the year. This month, though, kudos belong to Accuweather. Way to go!

Models have been in the news quite a bit over the last several weeks, in particular as they relate to the COVID-19 Pandemic. There have been a great deal of concerns and questions as they relate to scientific modeling. I’m certainly not an epidemiologist, but meteorology is a field of science that relies heavily on modeling, so I thought I might share some insights.

Models, depending on the output desired, are essentially mathematical equations, in which variables are either solved for or assumed. The equations are given starting information, which is often altered, depending on observations, such as the temperature or barometric pressure in meteorology, or the case total or fatalities in a COVID model.

There is often discrepancy in the models versus what happens in real life because variables can be uncontrolled. In the case of the weather, the limited number of observations means there are gaps in information that are assumed, but not confirmed, which can lead to errors, especially over time.

The same can be said with COVID modeling, however the assumptions are based on how people will respond. The primary difference, at this point, between the various COVID models is assumptions based on how government ordered social distancing is instituted and remains in effect. One of the uncontrolled variables is how engaged in the population is in the social distancing, as the models only respond to the virus’s known rate of spread and mortality.

Models are only as good as the information that goes into them, but at the very least, they are effective at demonstrating trends, and giving an idea generally, if not always specifically, of the future. They can inform of responses of changes in variables. Weather models are updated regularly, and resubmitted with new data, with corresponding alterations to the forecast. COVID models are updated with new case numbers and new actions by the local populations and government.

Models exist to allow the public and the various powers that be to prepare and respond to pending conditions, whether they be thunderstorm or waves of illness. Unlike weather modeling, in which we are tasked with responding to the output, epidemic modeling allows us to alter the outcome with our actions, and are of particular value.

The last couple of years have seen April’s with historic late season snow storms that called into question the true definition of spring. This year, it’s bee significantly warmer, and dare I say spring like for a lot of the country. This as been with it’s negatives, of course, as the spring severe season has been particularly robust in the Southeast, but I think a lot of people are pretty pleased with how the weather has turned out in April.

The CPC would like to end your celebrating.

A large portion of the country, centered around the Great Lakes, is going to start May much cooler than normal. It probably won’t mean snow, but it shouldn’t be ruled out everywhere. Conversely, temperatures in the southwest, which have already been well above normal, are expected to continue to be significantly warmer than normal. Nobody is happy.

On the plus side, at least out east, is that cooler temperatures are more tolerable in May than they are in April. Additionally, cooler temperatures should help mitigate the severe season in the southern Plains. The first week of May has historically been a dangerous week in Oklahoma, but that doesn’t seem to be the case this year.

For warm weather lovers, the long range forecast isn’t great, but it could all certainly be worse.

Happy Easter everyone! I have to, before we get started, tell you all that tomorrow looks like a very dangerous day along the Gulf Coast. This might be the storm system that 2020 is remembered for, as it bears a strong resemblance to storms that have lead to devastation in Alabama and Mississippi in the past. We’re all at home, so be sure to listen to your local weather persons for guidance as weather gets dangerous.

We didn’t have that many individual forecasts last month during the course of the month, but for those that we did, there was a clear winner: The Weather Channel. The Weather Channel parlayed their win in March to a comfortable lead for the year, a quarter of the way through.

Lets look at the total wins for the month, and for the year.

Outlet	Month wins
The Weather Channel	2.5
Victoria-Weather	1
Weatherbug	0.5
WeatherNation
National Weather Service
Forecast.io
Accuweather

Outlet	Month wins	year wins
Victoria-Weather	1	4.75
The Weather Channel	2.5	4.5
Weatherbug	0.5	3.83
WeatherNation		3.08
National Weather Service		1.25
Forecast.io		0.33
Accuweather		0.25

I don’t need to tell you that the the novel coronavirus, causing Covid-19, has put the nation at a standstill. One of the few rays of light from this strange state of affairs is the respect shown to the doctors and epidemiologists who are offering advice and instructions. As a meteorologist, I am envious of these scientists who have grabbed the attention of the public and the powers that be, and have incited action in the face of grave danger.

Granted, there are many people who reject the threat of the disease out of hand, as many are also quick to dismiss a severe weather warning, and it is for a similar reason. While the disease is much more lethal than the flu, the threat it will cause severe symptoms in any particular individual is almost astronomically small. The highest rate of infection in the world right now is in San Marino, a tiny principality embedded within Italy, and even there, the fraction of the population that has been confirmed as having the virus is less than 1%. Similarly, among those who contract the virus are said to have a death rate of 4%. These numbers are all very small.

The problem is that those numbers are all coming at the same time, especially if nothing is done about it. Having 4% of 1% of the population dying of this would still account for 120,000 people passing away after 3,000,000 people get sick. Those numbers would paralyze the medical system across the country. The threat to any one individual is small, but the threat to the system is very large.

Consider the television meteorologist, who gets hate mail for interrupting programming to provide alerts when there is a dangerous situation in a particular viewing area. Just think of Nashville earlier this year, where a tornado tracked through the metropolitan area, killing dozens and injuring hundreds. Still, if you lived in Oak Hill, you were unaffected by the worst of the storms. There was no threat to you, but the Nashville system was heavily disrupted, and the TV Meteorologist had to warn for the whole system, even if it was simply an inconvenience in the south metro (and the far north metro, for that matter).

Now, that same TV Meteorologist might have to tackle the next severe outbreak, or even the next month’s worth of outbreaks, from their home office, rather than surrounded by colleagues and advanced monitoring equipment, as we all try to stay away from others to prevent the further spread of Covid-19. Of course, more people will be at home, hopefully paying attention to the television or radio when severe weather looms.

Of course, when a tornado or severe weather event strikes, it can lead to a mass trauma event. Many people need medical attention all at the same time. This pandemic is an ongoing, ever worsening mass trauma event as well. With the spring and severe weather coming, can any part of the country stand to bear another compounding disaster?

I fear we will find out this spring, and I am more fearful that we won’t like the answe,

Last week, a devastating set of tornadoes swept through north central Tennessee, claiming the lives of 24 people and injuring hundreds, while causing significant damage across the region.

Frankly, you couldn’t ave asked for a worse set of circumstances for these storms. While we can’t underestimate the the amount of suffering that the storms caused, we also can also state that it could have been significantly worse, and the margin was very close. Let’s look at the circumstances in question.

1. Time of Day: The first tornado from this outbreak dropped shortly after 11pm, with the Cookeville tornado occurring just before 2AM. Given that this outbreak occurred after most people were in bed, the effectiveness of warnings was reduced even further than normal, and few people in the path of the storm likely prepared as would have been prudent
2. Location: These tornadoes went through heavily populated locations. The longest track any of these twisters took was an incredible 60 miles, and it started west of Nashville before crossing an airport and eventually through the city center, The storm passed between the Grand Ole Opry and Downtown, south of the Hermitage and across commercial and residential districts. A venue that hosted a political rally that very night was leveled. To summarize, there were definitely people in the path of this storm.
3. Strength: That storm that went through the city center of Nashville did so as an EF2 to EF3 storm, and remained an EF3 as it did considerable harm to life and property in Mount Juliet. The Cookeville tornado, which skirted the city limits was stronger, grading as an EF4, and was the deadliest as a result.

Take a look at the storm tracks of the Nashville and Cookeville tornadoes below to reference what I discussed above.

That is a recipe for disaster, and one that likely left most residents feeling helpless. The storms themselves were moving at 80mph as well, which would have limited warning times even if they had come during daylight. The storms had a mission, and Tennessee is proving how strong the state is, thanks to the ability to withstand such as storm, and their immediate attempts at recovery.

February wasn’t nearly the snowlogged marathon that it was in 2019, even though we had an extra day in the month. Also, February wasn’t quite as tightly clustered among the forecasters as January was. This milder, tamer month led to only one winner for the month, and one that didn’t do as well in January. Congratualtions to the Weather Channel, our top performer in our second month.

Outlet	Month wins
The Weather Channel	2
WeatherNation	1.33
Weatherbug	0.33
Forecast.io	0.33
Victoria-Weather
National Weather Service
Accuweather

Outlet	Month wins	year wins
Victoria-Weather		3.5
WeatherNation	1.33	2.83
Weatherbug	0.33	2.33
The Weather Channel	2	2
National Weather Service		1
Forecast.io	0.33	0.33
Accuweather

I have talked about “bright banding” in the past. It is the phenomenon in which snow forms striations on radar, with the brighter returns indicating elongated bands of heavy snowfall. Given the movement patterns of snow storms, these bands tend to linger and usually result in the locations that receive the most snow in a region’s snow event.

What happens, then, if there is only one band of snow in a withering area of low pressure, and it sets up in an area that is otherwise snow free? What this bright band would do is something like what happened earlier this week in Kansas, with a system that moved through the mid-Mississippi Valley, and ultimately became a blizzard in western New York and eastern Canada.

Here is the satellite edition:

Some incredible snow swaths over the Great Plains this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/1YVeXBLbQl

— Dakota Smith (@weatherdak) February 27, 2020

And this is what it looks like from a little closer to the ground.

Figured @KATVToddYak would like this. Very cool snow storm track in Kansas. pic.twitter.com/Ym8InbMQBA

— Leigh Marts (@ltmarts) February 27, 2020

In the end, the snow band was less than 20 miles wide, but in some places more than a foot deep, and came down at a pace that required the closing of I-70 in northern Kansas. Certainly bad luck for the very few people that saw all the snow, but at least they didn’t need to go far to get out of it.

If you have been tracking the weather in the southeast over the last several weeks, you know that the we’ve had a bit more early severe weather than last year, particularly in the Dixie Alley of Mississippi, Alabama and states surrounding them.

The issue hasn’t really been the individual severity of these storms, but rather the frequency with which they have been occurring. Big thunderstorms often bring heavy rains, and while the southeast is uniquely equipped to contend with a higher water content than most places in the country, they have simply seen these storms too often.

Presently, the Mississippi is over it’s banks in Natchez, while the Tombigbee River in Alabama from Gainesville to Mobile is at moderate flood levels. The Pearl River, particularly in Jackson, is where the flooding is presently the worst. The Pearl is currently cresting at eight feed above flood stage.

If we were expecting to stay dry for a while, I would confidently say that the worst will soon be over for residents of Jackson and the surrounding environs, however the forecast calls for more rain. Many parts of Mississippi, including Jackson, will see at least a couple more inches of rain through Thursday, leading the WFO in Jackson to pain the region in Flash Flood watches and warnings.

Mississippi’s terrain is porous and will be able to absorb the excess faster than many places, but it is still significant to see flash flooding forecast over such a broad swath of land. The next round of rain and thunderstorms has already popped up south of Grenada.

Do you know what this site has been missing this winter? Posts about snow storms on the East Coast. this isn’t just because of our pared down content schedule either; there just hasn’t been any snow to speak of south of New York, and the biggest features have waited until they are over the Atlantic to really take off.

New York hasn’t been particularly snowy either, but Philadelphia and Washington have seen less than an inch of snowfall accumulation all season. Take a look at the accumulated totals for the mid-Atlantic to date this season.

The light blue shadings are the 0-1″ range, which includes southern New Jersey to northern North Carolina, at which point the total accumulations really taper off. Things are light north of there as well, with under half a foot falling from the Cape to southeastern Pennsylvania.

It hasn’t been dry along the East Coast. There have been plenty of warmer core systems that brought enough rain to make sure the soil stays saturated. There have also been cold snaps from time to time. The problem for snow lovers in the Beltway is that those two things haven’t phased.

It’s still only the middle of February, so hope is not all lost for people want to see some snow this season, but for those that aren’t snow aficianados, we are already almost out of the woods for the season, and it has passed with very little headache.