Lebanon, Pennsylvania

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Well, this has certainly been an interesting week. The weather continues apace, regardless of the virus that is gripping society. Let’s check out southeastern PA.

At 856PM, ET, Lebanon was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with overcast skies. There was overcast across the region with light return showing up on radar across central Pennsylvania, though there weren’t any precipitation reports from reporting stations east of Pittsburgh.
The band of precipitation is the tail front attached to low pressure moving through Hudson Bay. A shallow jet trough covers northeastern Canada, and is sort of the second step of a two step jet stream. Ultimately, there is a ridge over the eastern part of the country, which is helping to mitigate the threat of precipitation, but will also allow some clearing tomorrow afternoon. The lower step of the jet is going to continue to translate eastward and with it, the next round of wet weather. A warm front, laden with fairly heavy rain and potentially an isolated thunderstorm will arrive late in the evening on Wednesday.
Tomorrow – A little bit of early rain, High 55, Low 43
Wednesday – Mostly sunny with increasing clouds and a late shower or thunderstorm, High 55, Low 35

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 57, Low 38
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon (late rain). High 57, Low 32

AW: Tomorrow – A passing shower or two in the morning; otherwise, clouds giving way to some sun High 57, Low 31
Wednesday – Increasing clouds (late rain) High 57, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of light rain, mainly before 10am. Cloudy High 57, Low 3-
Wednesday – Sunny (late rain), High 56, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy, a chance of light rain in the morning, High 57, Low 40
Wednesday – Sunny (Late rain), High 56, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 57, Low 40
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 56, Low 33

FIO: Tomorrow – Possible drizzle in the morning. High 57, Low 38
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 58, Low 31

It looks like we are visiting Lebanon right between two bouts of rain. What timing! Maybe things are looking up.

Tucson, Arizona

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Let’s see what’s going on down in Arizona tonight. Anything? Anything at all?

At 853PM, PT, Tucson was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with clear skies. The western US is much more active than usual, with a broad, strong trough angled into the west coast. The exit arm of the trough extends just to the southeast of Tucson, and some mid to high clouds shouldn’t be ruled out tomorrow.
Low pressure will consolidate on the Colorado/New Mexico border through the day tomorrow, with precipitation becoming more widespread in southern New Mexico and the terrain east of Tucson. This feature will shift into the Plains, but the southwest will broadly be within a trough. Low pressure will develop over the Pacific west of the Baja, and the skies over Tucson will be a little bit more congested than usual to start the week.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 69, Low 52
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 74, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies with a few showers after midnight. High 67, Low 55
Monday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 75, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – A shower or thunderstorm in the area in the morning; otherwise, rather cloudy and cooler High 68, Low 55
Monday – Partly sunny and warmer High 76, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers, mainly before 11am. Partly sunny, High 71, Low 54
Monday – Sunny, High 77, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the morning then partly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon, High 66, Low 59
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 49

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 71, Low 54
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 45

FIO: Tomorrow – Possible drizzle in the morning. High 71, Low 46
Monday – Overcast throughout the day. High 74, Low 60

I sure could end up with egg on my face if (and probably when, knowing my luck) it rains in Tucson on Sunday. Check out the satellite, with heavier clouds just to the southeast of town.

Killeen, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re just following election states around, I guess. Well, this time, we are off to Texas, which votes tomorrow as part of Super Tuesday. I’m sure that regardless of who they support, Texans are all going to vote for good weather.

At 958PM, CT, Killeen was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with fair skies. There was some light rain in the area, south of Killeen. It’s not particularly heavy, and most of it is certainly not reaching the ground, however there were a few drips being reported in Junction and Marble Falls. That ground truth means it would be imprudent to take rain out of the overnight forecast in Killeen.
A complicated system in the eastern US is born of a jet with a split tail, merging over Indiana, with a weak cold front sweeping through Texas. The southern end of the front is troughing dramatically in the Desert Southwest, and as it translates to the east, cyclogenesis will be swift. The feature will move into Texas by tomorrow evening, with an active warm front arriving in town late in the evening. The low itself will arrive in the early morning on Wednesday, with heavy rain and some embedded thunderstorms starting around sunrise and lasting at least through the early afternoon, with light to moderate rain coming on the back end of the system and lasting through the afternoon and evening.
Tomorrow – Clouds and light rain arriving late, High 76, Low 62
Wednesday – Rain and thunderstorms through the day, High 64, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 76, Low 61
Wednesday – Rain likely. Potential for heavy rainfall. High 62, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and not as warm with a brief shower or two High 70, Low 59
Wednesday – Cooler; heavy rain and a thunderstorm in the morning, then a little rain; watch for flash flooding High 59, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. High 72, Low 59
Wednesday – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm High 60, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. High 75, Low 60
Wednesday, – Showers. A chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Then a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 64, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers likely, High 72, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy iwth showers, High 60, Low 55

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day. High 76, Low 61
Wednesday – Rain until evening.High 65, Low 49

If I had a vote, I would vote both against Weatherbug and my blogging software, because goodness, if they weren’t fickle tonight. Here is the radar, with that drizzle moving through central Texas.

Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Hattiesburg is a part of the Jackson WFO, and in my opinion, this is the best Forecast Office in the country. That aside, let’s see if they are as good at forecasting as they are at web design.

At 1253AM, CT, Hattiesburg was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with clear skies. The remnants of a strong system are continuing to clear out of the Ohio VAlley, but otherwise, the satellite remains clear east of the Rockies with a surface ridge building from the Gulf to the Great Lakes.
There continues to be a broad upper level trough, with the base running zonally along the US-Mexican border the northern Gulf, with an undercutting ridge providing the stability over the continental US. The base of the trough being as far south as it is simply for temperatures to remain a bit below normal, though the clear skies will help make up some of the difference in the afternoon.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 70, Low 34
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 73, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. 71,
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies. High 70, Low 44

AW: Tomorrow – Abundant sunshine, High 69, Low 36
Sunday – Partial sunshine High 70, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 37
Sunday – Mostly sunny High 71, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 38
Sunday – Mostly sunny im the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 69, Low 44

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, JHigh 69, Low 37
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 68, Low 37
Sunday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 72, Low 44

Here’s the satellite for this evening, showing off a very quiet Mississippi, and a quiet Mississippi Valley.

Rochester, New York

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Things are pretty dicey in western New York. Yesterday’s Lake flooding alerts have turned to winter storm and blizzard warnings. My oh my, this should be an interesting forecast.

At 1007AM, ET, Rochester was reporting temperature of 25 degrees, but the thing everyone was surely noticing was the west wind at 33kt and light, wind driven snow. A strong area of low pressure lay over Ontario and Quebec, and on the south end of the system, the brisk west wind is leading to blizzard conditions east of Lakes Ontario and Erie, while Rochester, for the time being, is spared of the worst of this storm.
The upper level structure parenting this blizzard is asymmetrical, and that will be it’s undoing. With all the strength off shore, the central low pressure will weaken significantly and the brisk west winds and potential for snowfall will subside this afternoon and through tomorrow. The strong off shore jet will become associated with a laminar jet in the southern US, which will mean cold air will remain in western New York for the next few days. The orientation of the trough will subsequently foster northerly flow, which, while light, will create a fetch off of Lake Ontario that presents the possibility for Lake Effect accumulation in Rochester starting late Friday and lasting through Saturday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with snow returning in the evening, High 28, low 20
Saturday – Persistent, wet snow, High 23, low 15

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with snow showers in the afternoon High 27, low 21
Saturday – Overcast. A few flurries or snow showers possible High 23, Low 18

AW: Tomorrow – Windy, cold with blowing snow; cloudy with snow at times, accumulating a coating to an inch High 28, low 21
Saturday – Low clouds and cold with a flurry or two High 25, Low 17

NWS: Tomorrow – Snow showers likely, mainly between noon and 5pm, then snow after 5pm. Areas of blowing snow. High 26, Low 20
Saturday – Snow. High 23, Low 17

WB: Tomorrow – Snow showers in the morning, then lake effect snow in the afternoon. Areas of blowing snow. Accumulations of 1-2″ in the most persistent snows. Very windy and cold. High 26, low 21
Saturday – Lake effect snow, High 22, Low 19

WN: tomorrow – Windy with snow showers likely, High 26, Low 21
Saturday – Cloudy with light snow, High 23, Low 21

FIO: Tomorrow – Windy tonight and tomorrow morning. High 27, Low 19
Saturday – Foggy tomorrow night and in the morning. High 25, Low 17

Instead of the radar, like I would normally add when there is precipitation, I have included the satellite imagery from Canada. This is a big area of low pressure stretched across eastern Canada, but it’s not going to last much longer. It’s getting stretched to oblivion as we speak.

Columbia, South Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The capital city of South Carolina is also home to the University of South Carolina, and will be ground zero to what already seems like an endless election cycle, with this weeks’ pending primary coming to town.

At 1256AM, ET, Columbia was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 31 degrees. High pressure dominated the area, and the clear skies will lead to chilly temperatures for the morning in South Carolina, but the weekend will end pleasantly.
Low pressure currently over the Four Corners is going to translate into the central Plains and continue eastward towards the Carolinas. It will deepen over Oklahoma, and develop some well defined warm and cold fronts. The warm front will emerge in central South Carolina by midday on Monday. Heavier showers and a stray thunderstorm will come to town in later in the day as the associated cold front arrives.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 28
Monday – Rain through most of the day, starting in the morning, High 58, Low 43

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 30
Monday – Occasional light rain. High 53, Low 44

AW: Tomorrow – Sun followed by increasing clouds High 60, Low 29
Monday – Cloudy and cool with a touch of rain High 54, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 27
Monday – Rain likely, mainly between 9am and 1pm, then showers after 1pm. High 56, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 58, Low 32
Monday – Rain likely in the morning then showers in the afternoon, High 53, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 62, Low 27
Monday – Cloudy with light rain likely, High 56, Low 45

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day, High 61, Low 30
Monday – Light rain starting in the morning

Monday is going to be a rainy day in Columbiam but there sure isn’t any sign of it on satellite.

Green Bay, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

When you think of beachfront communities, I’m not sure Green Bay and Lake Michigan often come to mind. Northeast of Green Bay is Door County, though, which is an idyllic vacation spot. In the summer, though, probably not right now.

At 953AM, CT, Green Bay was reporting clear skies and a temperature of only 7 degrees. Clear dry air prevailed in the Dairy State thanks to the west winds, though some clouds were seen in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan thanks to flow coming off of Lake Superior, which has remained open this winter.
Surface high pressure is in control thanks to a broad trough lying along the southern third of the country. Unfortunately, with the jet as far south as it is, warm air is pinned in the Gulf, and the ridge is particularly chilly. A shortwave upper level trough is translating through the Great Lakes as well, functioning similarly to a thermal trough, though mostly because it is left without a source of moisture. Still, as it pivots away from the area, a warm up can be anticipated simply due to the increased sun angle as we approach spring.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 16, Low -4
Friday – Sunny and warmer, High 34, low 6

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 15, Low -3
Friday – A mainly sunny sky high 33, Low 5

AW: Tomorrow – Very cold with plenty of sunshine High 16, Low -3
Friday – Not as cold with plenty of sun High 33, low 6

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 16, Low -4
Friday – Sunny, High 32, low 5

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 13, Low -3
Friday – Sunny, High 31, Low 6

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 16, Low -4
Friday – Sunny, High 32, low 5

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 16, low -4
Friday – Windy in the afternoon and evening. High 33, Low 4

Brr! Ok, this is probably another reason most people don’t think of Green Bay and beaches. here is the satellite imagery. A lot of the white is actually snow on the ground, rather than clouds.

San Jose, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The Bay Area of northern California is a complicated weather scene thanks to the water, the changing terrain and the fact that there isn’t a heck of a lot of data immediately to the west of there. Fingers crossed, models don’t fail us now!

At 1053AM, PT, San Jose was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The regional satellite showed off the jet stream through northern California, with some striated clouds moving through Nevada and Utah after passing the Sierras. The southern Bay just had a few patches of clouds that don’t look to have much staying power.
A surface ridge will build over the west coast over the next few days, further underscoring the stability in the region. The tail of a jet streak will press eastward, allowing a strong Pacific ridge to really put it’s mark on the area.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 68, Low 46
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 46
Tuesday – Abundant sunshine. High 67, Low 44

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine High 69, Low 46
Tuesday – Plenty of sunshine High 67, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 69, Low 43
Tuesday – Sunny – High 68, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny, High 69, Low 45
Tuesday – Sunny, High 66, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 43
Tuesday – High 68, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 68, Low 43
Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 67, Low 41

Here is a look at that satellite I mentioned. Pretty cool how apparent the jet stream is, if you ask me, a local weather nerd.

Salisbury, Maryland

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

To the Delmarva we go this evening, to the Eastern Shore of Maryland. Salisbury is the second largest town on the peninsula, after Dover. This is the first time Dover has been the biggest in any categorization.

AT 854PM, ET, Salisbury was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 50 degrees. There was a smattering of clouds to the west, over Appalachia, that were seen at the leading edge of high pressure. There is an upper level ridge parked over the eastern US, and any short term development will be found in the south central US, at the base of a strong jet trough.
There is little easterly momentum to the ridge, but there some. Cold air will coalesce behind the Appalachians even as low pressure develops in the lower Mississippi Valley. The cold air will drift southeastward, bringing with it the chance for a splash of showers on Wednesday afternoon, with a few clouds billowing in before that.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 46
Wednesday – chance of light rain, High 54, Low 44 (non-standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 62, Low 51
Wednesday – Rain early then remaining cloudy with showers in the afternoon. High 55, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a touch of rain; the temperature near the record of 69 set in 1991 High 64, Low 50
Wednesday – Mild with occasional rain and drizzle High 57, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 67, Low 48
Wednesday – Rain likely. Cloudy, High 53, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 62, Low 53
Wednesday – Rain likely, High 56, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 48
Wednesday – Cloudy with light rain likely, High 52, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 63, Low 48
Wednesday – Light rain in the morning and afternoon High 56, Low 39

There we go, a messy forecast for the middle of the week. Right now, however, the sky is clear and the air is unusually warm.

Ocala, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re off to the Sunshine State once again. This weekend, the Super Bowl is a little further south in Miami. There were some very strong thunderstorms there last night, but at least at the Orange Bowl, life looks good this weekend. What about further north in Ocala?

At 203PM, ET, Ocala was reporting a temperature of 63 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A cold front was moving through the Florida Peninsula, with temperatures in the 40s as close as Tallahassee. Ocala was not expected to receive any more rain today, though there were a few showers as nearby as Orlando.
The sharp upper level trough that is driving this cold front will be off over the Gulf Stream by tomorrow morning, with a thermal ridge working its way back into Florida by tomorrow afternoon. Low pressure developing in the plains will draw even more warm air northward.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 41
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 39

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 66, Low 42
Monday – A few clouds from time to time. high 73, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine, High 64, low 42
Monday – Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer High 73, low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 65, Low 42
Monday – Sunny High 73, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 64, Low 44
Monday – Sunny High 71, Low 41

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 64, Low 41
Monday – Sunny, High 73, Low 39

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 65, Low 43
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 73, Low 40

Not much going on for the next couple of days, however we do have a bit of rain off to the south this afternoon. Not much longer, though, for fans of Disney World.