Lakeland, Florida to Racine, Wisconsin

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Another trip home for the holidays. Lakeland is a new enough town that there aren’t likely to be many people FROM Lakeland, so this trip rationale seems right to me. It’s a 1,248 mile journey that will last two days, including a particularly long day on Wednesday to finish things off. Expect a pace of 66.4mph and a Tuesday covering 531.2 miles.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)

Lakeland, Florida

High pressure is taking care of the southeastern United States, and really, most of the rest of the country as well. Everything, except, ironically, the Sunshine State. A baroclinic flow is streaming across the Peninsula, and scattered showers and probably some embedded thunderstorms are going to be possible until Gainesville, with isolated spots of precipitation as far north as Macon. Fortunately, the drive through Atlanta will be nice and dry. We’ll get into Dalton, just south of Chattanooga, for the night.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
There will be a bit of a return flow through the middle of the country, which will bring temperature and humidity up a little bit. It won’t be an exquisitely sunny day but the whole way to Racine will be dry and pretty easy to navigate. You might even enjoy a trip to the lakeshore after reaching Racine.

Racine, Wisconsin

Racine, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Today’s forecast takes us to southeastern Wisconsin. Thanksgiving week in the Midwest seems appropriate.

At 1053AM, CT, Racine was reporting a temperature of 40 degrees with clear skies. An area of low pressure over eastern Canada was inducing a strong west wind across Wisconsin, which made things feel cool, but the off shore breeze allowed temperatures to reach 40 and ensured that clouds stayed over Lake Michigan.
The wave over Canada will be replaced by weak low pressure in the Canadian Prairies. The change in pattern will tamp down on the gusty winds, and the change in flow around the next area of low pressure will bring about some southerly flow, and warmer temperatures for mid-week.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 44, Low 23
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 48, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny along with a few clouds. High 44, Low 26
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. High 49, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; quiet weather for early holiday travelers High 45, Low 28
Wednesday – Sunny to partly cloudy High 50, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 44, Low 25
Wednesday – Sunny High 49, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning, then clearing, High 43, Low 25
Wednesday – Sunny, High 47, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 42, Low 27
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 31

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 43, Low 28
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 48, Low 31

Check out the satellite of the Great Lakes. The westerly flow is leading to a cloudy day in Michigan, but not in Wisconsin.

Nicole holds up her end of the bargain

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A strong cold front moving into the middle of the country started us on a weeklong cold snap that afflicted a sizeable tract of the country. It brought heavy rain to the High Plains, but it dwindled as it progressed eastward. There was only about a tenth of an inch of rain in Jefferson City on the 11th, but it diminished from the heavy rain seen west of there thanks to Hurricane Nicole. Nicole was moving inland at the same time the cold front was passing through Missouri, and at the same time, intercepting a lot of the moisture that would have fallen on the Show Me State. It didn’t slow down the cool down, though, because it sure got chilly on the 12th! Not as chilly as the forecast said, though, which gave the shared victory to The Weather Service and Weathernation.
Actuals: November 11th, .11 inches of rain, High 49, Low 32
November 12th, High 32, Low 29

Grade: C

Buffalo getting pounded by several FEET of snow

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The beginning of winter and the approach of spring are tenuous times for the Great Lakes. With a cold November interacting with yet unfrozen lakes, all it takes is a persistent wind to lead to some particularly impressive snow totals. Suburban Buffalo is in the crosshairs for those kinds of numbers.

The snow is supposed to be heavy enough and at such a time that due to safety concerns for he fans, the Buffalo Bills home game has been moved to Detroit for the weekend. Orchard Park, home of the Bills, is south of that 21.4″ forecast in the city of Buffalo, and could be inline for nearly 3 more feet of snow. (This forecast is for snow on top of what has already been received.)

What is wild about this, is the synoptic outlook for the region, and really the country. Sure, there is low pressure in eastern Canada driving the west-southwest flow off of Lake Erie but there isn’t a lot of atmospheric moisture attendant to the feature.

Buffalo, and Watertown in the same position, just northeast of Lake Ontario, are simply in the wrong place, withstanding a full fetch off their respective Great Lake. Fortunately, much of the rest of the country, excepting the Gulf Coast, where rain is likely tonight, is headed for a pretty quiet travel weekend. Unless you are heading to Buffalo.

Jefferson City, Missouri to Casper, Wyoming

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I love absolutely nothing more than mostly rural road trips through the middle of nowhere. Imagine how big Casper is going to seem after this 2 day voyage! It’s a 921 mile journey between these two towns, which we will pace at 64.5mph, ending the first day at the 516 mile mark. Let’s go on this windswept journey!

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

Jefferson City, Missouri

A broad, disorganized area of low pressure has been bringing fairly steady light snow to much of the Northern Plains for the last couple of days. It’s a nuisance, but it hasn’t yet drifted so far south to impact Missouri, and the drive through the Show Me State and Kansas City will be fine. We will pop north and cut through Lincoln (the last sizeable town for the rest of the drive) and head west, where a lobe of that mass of light snow will start digging to the south. The feature won’t reach Nebraska until the overnight, and we should reach Lexington, in south central Nebraska without much fuss. Don’t let that lull you into a false sense of security.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
Windy conditions with light snow can make for some terrible visibility, and that is what we can expect west of North Platte. The precipitation, but not the wind, will taper by noon, with the snow becoming more likely in the mountains off Wyoming by the end of the day. Snow or no snow, conditions will be challenging in Nebraska, and only a little bit better in Wyoming. If the roads are clear, that will be good news. Casper certainly sounds like a friendly destination, doesn’t it? It will have a faint dusting of snow when we arrive.

Casper, Wyoming

A big rebound

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We were forecasting down in east Texas to start the month of November, which was buried under a combination of cold air and onshore flow. College Station was even cooler than expected on the 1st, partially because of a little bit of light rain that fell on town to start the the month, and partially because of the lingering effects of a powerful early season cold front. The trough was narrow though, and temperatures bounced back vigorously on the 2nd, going from a high of 68 on the first to 79 on the 2nd. The National Weather Service collected the victory for this forecast posted on Halloween.
Actuals: Nov 1st – .05 inches of rain, High 68, Low 58
Nov 2nd – High 79, Low 54

Grade: B-C

Jefferson City, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are heading back to Missouri for our forecast today, and this time, we are taking it to the manager, visiting the state capital.

At 553AM, CT, Jefferson City was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 65 degrees with clear skies. Low pressure centered over the Upper Midwest is producing a warm front that ranged through the northern Great Lakes, and was drawing forth a significant warm surge through the Mississippi Valley, bringing forth the unusual warmth in early November.
As with most autumnal systems, there is a strong cold front dangling off the back end of the low pressure center, This active pattern is also punctuated by the remnants of Hurricane Nicole over Florida, and drifting north into southern Appalachia. The cold front will be active with showers and storms over northwestern Missouri this afternoon and evening, with the chance of a shower arriving near sunrise tomorrow. Nicole, however, will sap most of the moisture moving towards Jefferson City, which will tone down the rain chances through the day Friday. That said, mid layer clouds and a rush of cooler air will still trail the boundary, making for a chilly start to the weekend.
Tomorrow – Early showers lead to clouds and cold, High 52, Low 30
Saturday – Partly cloudy but colder, High 37, Low 22

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 51, Low 33
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 40, Low 24

AW: Tomorrow – A passing shower in the morning; otherwise, partly to mostly sunny and cooler; the colder weather will linger into next week High 53, Low 32
Saturday – Mostly sunny and cold High 40, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, (early storms) High 50, Low 30
Saturday – Sunny High 38, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny (early rain), High 53, Low 32
Saturday – Sunny, High 40, Low 26

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 34
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 38, Low 24

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 51, Low 31
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 40, Low 25

The cold front over northern Missouri is looming. Enjoy the heat today, because winter is around the corner.

September/October Forecaster of the Month

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In the past, when I was unable to get to a forecaster of the month, and I paired two months into one post, I would title the post “ForecasterS of the Month.” You’ll note that I did not pluralize it this time around, for the very good reason that the forecaster was one and the same for both months. Autumn has swept in, and Victoria-Weather has swept two months in a row!

This is a win, admittedly, for model guidance. Hurricane Ian devastated southwest Florida, but otherwise, the US was impressively dry. Precipitation was sparse, which meant there was little variation from model guidance, and V-W knew how to read the output. Go team!

OutletForecast Wins (year)
Weatherbug7.33
The Weather Channel7.33
Accuweather7.32
Victoria-Weather6.82
National Weather Service6.16
WeatherNation4.83
Forecast.io4.16

Needed rain

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When a drought is on, there is nothing better than a long, steady rain, and at the beginning of last week, that is exactly what Columbia, Missouri got. Over two inches of rain fell between Monday and Tuesday of last week, giving the region a drink, and starting to rejuvenate the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. Everyone had rain in the forecast, and correctly prognosticated a non-standard day, though I don’t think anyone was this optimistic on total rainfall. Weatherbug had the top forecast for the day, which ultimately came down to solid temperature trending.
Actuals: Monday, Oct 24th, .59 inches of rain, High 74, Low 58
Tuesday, October 25th, 1.45 inches of rain, High 56, Low 42

Grade: B-D

College Station, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Texas A&M is located in College Station, and is home to a very good meteorology school. One suspects that at least one of the forecasters in this competition will have a close connection with College Station.

AT 1253PM, CT, College Station was reporting a temperature of 73 with clear skies. A jet streak aloft over east Texas was evident in some streaming cirrus over the region. Further to the south, a thatch of clouds over southern Texas represented return flow on the back end of surface high pressure. As the jet streak carries to the northeast, the Gulf will open further, with moisture allowed to trek north through the state.
A weak trough at the entrance of the jet streak is going to exacerbate the shower activity in south Texas, with rain bubbling up through much of the southern half of the Lone Star State. As this upper wave transitions away, and an upper ridge establishes over the center of the country, high pressure will recommit to the southeastern US. Flow into an area of low pressure developing in the High Plains will route north of College Station, and a warm, dry start to November is anticipated.
Tomorrow – Chance of evening showers, otherwise warm, High 73, Low 58
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late.  High 75, Low 58
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 80, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a couple of showers High 73, Low 60
Wednesday – Pleasant with sun and areas of low clouds High 79, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, High 72, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. High 71, Low 60
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 54
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 56

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 70, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 77, Low 59

Tomorrow, in a worst case scenario, might necessitate kids staying indoors and eating a whole lot of candy. Happy Halloween!