Never sell the SPC short, I will stay that. In our forecast for Sioux Falls, there were only a couple of mentions of severe weather in the forecast last weekend, from ourselves and Accuweather. Meanwhile, Sioux Falls was included in the severe outlook both Saturday and Sunday, and it verified, or did awfully close to town. Saturday had hail, 2 inches in diameter just outside of town. No rain was actually reported in Sioux Falls, however, reflecting the isolated nature of the storms. Sunday was a soaker, with hail (though not as large) and strong winds around town. The low temperature forecasts were volatile, and the rain on Sunday ensured a colder day than expected, so the forecast didn’t turn out great for anyone. Weathernation sneaked in by accurately avoiding rain on Saturday and having a cool low on Sunday. Actuals: Saturday – 92, Low 67 Sunday – .61 inches of rain, High 80, Low 61
Welcome to hurricane season, everyone! For the first time in quite a while, the Atlantic has managed to avoid having a named storm crop up before the season started, though nevertheless, a busier than normal season is expected this year.
Even as this post is written, the remnants of Tropical Storm Agatha are being monitored for redevelopment in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It would be an interesting way to kick off the season, but the more traditional means of tropical development are, as now, pretty quiet across the Atlantic.
That portends to activity picking up later in the season. Even though this is the beginning of the tropical season, historically the most active period in the Atlantic comes at the end of summer, when the oceans are at there warmest. If the season waits to start and gets busier as it goes on, that will lead to a rough August and September.
Despite Agatha’s emergence in the eastern Pacific, the NHC projects a quieter than average season in the central Pacific. This is particularly important for both Hawai’i and surfers who come looking for big swells around the islands. There aren’t many other land masses that stand to be impacted by tropical features in the middle of the ocean, and even in busy years, Hawai’i isn’t impacted with much frequency.
Of course, with any season, what we remember is the storms that make landfall. Most residents of the Caribbean would agree that the Atlantic can be as busy as it wants to be, just so long as the storms stay out to sea and leave their islands alone. A quiet season in the central Pacific means nothing if one rogue cyclone nails Honolulu.
One last note. The beginning of hurricane season is also the dawning of meteorological summer. We made it, everyone. Happy summer!
Nothing is quite like the Texas sun beating down on you. Our forecasts didn’t quite anticipate how hot that sun could get when we forecast for Tyler, a town that looked like it was going to be in the aftermath of a cold front for a couple of days. Warming was anticipated, though not quite to the degree it was actually seen. Temperatures topped 90 on Friday, which is just a little too warm for sane people, and several degrees higher than what forecasts called for. The Weather Channel nabbed the top spot for the day, staying warm throughout their forecast period. Actuals: Thursday, High 88, Low 58 Friday – High 91, Low 62
The Pacific hurricane season gets an earlier start than the Atlantic, historically, thanks to abeing a vast body of water that doesn’t see the same changes in temperatures the Atlantic can undergo. It’s not terribly surprising to see Tropical Storm Agatha lurking off the coast of Mexico, but what is surprising is that this feature is expected to back up into the Mexican coast.
Pacific storms tend to start in this area, but the tropical wave they gear up from tend to maintain some momentum, allowing them to shift off to sea. Agatha is nearly stationary, and looks as though she will begin to move poleward earlier than is typical in the Pacific, and back up into Oaxaca.
If there is any good news, it is that Agatha isn’t a large storm. She is expected to become a hurricane before making land fall, which means the wind will be stronger along the beaches of southern Mexico, but the breadth of territory affected by the associated heavy rain should be mitigated. Additionally, that Agatha has backed up and moved northeast fairly recently suggests that storm surge will not be a primary concern either.
Even so, it looks like the storm won’t landfall until Monday, and changes are always possible. Notably, a storm over warm waters always possess the ability to get stronger, though of course, we hope that doesn’t happen.
Sioux Falls was in the news most recently and on these pages for a massive dust storm that swept the city. Storms may be on the way, but perhaps not as vigorous as the ones seen earlier this month!
At 1256PM, CT, Sioux Falls was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 76 degrees. Warm temperatures were finally filtering back into the Upper Midwest after a cooler stretch to finish May. A broad but transient ridge was sliding through the region, but a similarly broad trough was moving into the Pacific Northwest, leading to cyclogenesis and clouds seen in the western Dakotas. A rippling warm front will pass through the region overnight tonight, developing a few showers and thunderstorms in the area. A warm, muggier day is expected tomorrow, setting the stage for a few afternoon thunderstorms. The system will stall over the High Plains, with another round of wet weather tomorrow night, this time providing a threat of severe weather. The feature will begin to reorganize in the Colorado Plains, and will revitalize the system in the Dakotas. A connective cold front will light up in the evening on Sunday evening, setting a stage for the potential for straight line wind damage. Tonight, tomorrow and Sunday will have a threat of severe weather, with each of the three days featuring stronger weather with more precipitation likely. Tomorrow – Isolated showers early, thunderstorms late, High 88, Low 64 Sunday – Strong storms possible late after a hot partly cloudy day, High 88, Low 67
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny along with a few clouds. (Late storms) High 91, Low 62 Sunday -Overcast. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 86, Low 67
AW: Tomorrow – Partial sunshine; breezy in the morning, then becoming humid (late storms) High 90, Low 62 Sunday – Breezy with some sun returning; a severe afternoon t-storm; storms can bring downpours, large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado High 87, Low 67
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (early rain, late storms), High 89, Low 62 Sunday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 88, Low 66
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny (late storms) High 89, Low 63 Sunday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly sunny with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 89, Low 68
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 62 Sunday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 87, Low 63
FIO: Tomorrow – Windy overnight. High 87, Low 61 Sunday – Overcast throughout the day. High 83, Low 68
The paucity of rain forecasts, despite an SPC outlook with a slight or enhanced risk tells you how isolated storms will be. Hopefully, everyone can get out and enjoy the long holiday weekend!
It’s been a cool stretch of rain soaked weather for a lot of the interior part of the country, from the Great Lakes to the Plains. Ah, but how we forget how warm it got at the end of last week. Kokomo saw temperatures that nearly hit 90 on Friday. In a bit of good news, forecasts were fairly competent across the board, leading to a three way tie between Victoria-Weather, Weatherbug and Forecast.io. WeatherNation would have been in good shape, had they not fat fingered the low forecast for Friday. Actuals: Thursday – High 81, Low 61 Friday – High 88, Low 66
It seems as though any trip through California usually takes a full week, so I am delighted that our trip this weekend is only a 3 day trek across the desert southwest. The pace of the 1,597 mile journey will be about 68mph, owing in large part to I-10. This will give us almost 544 miles a day, with a slightly shorter day to end things on Sunday. Memorial Weekend is a good time for a road trip.
DAY ONE (Friday)
Oxnard, California
It’s fire season already in southern California. Despite copious snow and fairly persistent rain patterns through the winter, it wasn’t enough to break the drought that has plagued the southwest for a long time now. While there is a fire near Laguna Beach, the route through southern California will be free of fire, though pollution is a bit high in the LA Basin. The better threat for new fires under the dry high pressure will be in northern Arizona towards the 4 Corners. Despite the drought, day 1 looks good to Tucson.
DAY TWO (Saturday) Low pressure will start to develop in the High Plains of Colorado this weekend, which will likely fan the flames of the Black Fire in New Mexico, which will make the route from Deming, New Mexico to Pecos, Texas a little hazy. The fire may advance towards our route on Saturday, though it won’t come anywhere near it. The prevailing winds will only make life grayer, however. We will make it past Pecos to Pyote for the day.
DAY THREE (Sunday) Low pressure is going to track to the northeast after developing in the Colorado prairies. It’s not going to be able to pull any moisture north, at least not enough that the atmosphere will destabilize in Texas, even as a weak cold front tries to move through. Eventually, it will turn into an inactive dry line west of Dallas-Fort Worth. This will pen any smoke from filtering eastward, but showers and storms are not in the forecast for the rest of the way to Tyler.
I am a man of science, which means that I am in constant search of evidence to support or challenge explanations of the way the world works. Study after study has shown that gun ownership merely provides the illusion of safety, but the presence actually puts households at greater risk. Empirically, guns are dangerous, and the tragedy in Uvalde yesterday underscores that again, but everyday, dozens of people die or are injured by guns, accidentally, purposefully or in self inflicted acts. Places where gun casualties do not occur are places where guns are not available. That is the only variable.
Now, to another part of Texas for the forecast.
At 1153AM, PM, Tyler was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 73 degrees. An active cold front brought severe weather to the Lone Star State yesterday, and was now east of the Mississippi. In the wake of the boundary, cooler temperatures and a brisk west wind prevail. A cut off low over the south central United States is responsible for the wet weather, so the clouds my linger, but the cold air will struggle to gain traction. Cooler air will continue to wrap into the Tyler region through tomorrow morning, leaving some overcast in the morning, but flow will level off on Friday, and early summer heat will build back into east Texas. The front that moved through yesterday will maintain a presence in the Gulf and along the east coast as the cut off low gets folded into the mean jet flow, and this will prevent humidity and storm chances from taking hold, even as heat returns. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 55 Friday – Sunny and warmer, High 88, Low 59
TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 85, Low 58 Friday – Sunny skies. High 87, Low 57
AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 84, Low 57 Friday – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 84, Low 58
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 57 Friday – Sunny, High 84, Low 59
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 57 Friday – Sunny, High 84, Low 58
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 57 Friday – Sunny, High 84, Low 59
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 83, Low 55 Friday – Clear throughout the day. High 85, Low 58
Here we see clouds most aggressively in the lower Mississippi Valley with that trailing band of overcast.
Strong storms and rain made for a pretty eventful week last week in the north central United States. If eventful doesn’t work for you, then perhaps Duluth is the right town for you. With forecasts in the low 70s on the 13th and showers and storms in the forecast, Lake Superior guffawed and sent low level moisture, fog and clouds into the city. Temperatures didn’t even get out of the 40s. As a result, the warm nights were not seen either, and the low temperature on the 14th, which ultimately did see sun and a return to the 70s, dipped to the 30s when low 50s were expected. It was a completely busted forecast, but Accuweather was the least terrible of a rotten forecast. Actuals: May 13th – .24 inches of rain, high 48, Low 41 May 14th – High 73, Low 39
Last week, a two day storm event brought rough weather first to the Twin Cities on Wednesday, followed by this howling, apocalyptic dust storm to Sioux Falls. There were tornadoes in Minnesota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa, but the real show were a couple of bowing lines of thunderstorms that rolled through each town.
There was more severe weather on Thursday in the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. Severe watches were out from Missouri to Kentucky, and also popped up from Minnesota into Wisconsin and Iowa. There was a particularly different feel to these storms than the ones last week, though, and much of it has to do with the orientation of the upper level pattern.
Last week, the upper level pattern featured a brisk south to north jet streak butting against a stout ridge in the east and situated on the eastern flank of the trough that was allowing the storm system to develop. One of the results was a very narrow opportunity for a warm sector of any consequence, but a lingering “warm front” boundary was the perfect environment for bowing lines and derechos, which is what we got, twice, last week.
This week, the system brought a wider warm sector, and was able to advance cold air. Initially, on Thursday, it lead to some significant hail, such as what I saw in downtown St. Paul Thursday afternoon.
As the storm moved on, the progressive low with access to warm moist air was a ripe environment for tornadoes, of which one struck Gaylord, Michigan. This storm was an EF-3 tornado, which is quite strong in general, but in particular for northern Michigan.
The wave, which again, because it was more open than the one from last week, has continued it’s course, and has allowed the parent area of low pressure into Canada. But again, because it is advancing, has brought cold air in on the back side. Even tonight, there is an ongoing threat of some severe weather thanks to a ranging cold front from the eastern Great Lakes to Texas.
Clashing air masses and strong jet streams are good environments for severe weather. Differing patterns and flows might lead to different results, but as the last couple of weeks have shown, they can all be dangerous.
