Winston-Salem, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

This is a very exciting day for me in the forecast realm. Not very often we get to include a hyphen in the forecast city name!

At 954AM, ET, Winston-Salem was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 81 degrees. Clear skies were the boss, but dew points in the low 70s pointed to uncomfortable conditions and the potential for a few clouds today. Some low level convergence suggested a lee trough just to the west of the airport, and the threat for some afternoon showers and storms today, though high pressure dominated the broader map in the Carolinas.
This lee trough is going to be the primary factor over the next couple of days. There is colder, dryer air on the other side of the Appalachians, but the jet structure is well into Canada, and will not advance far enough to change the air mass in Winston-Salem. Expect scattered showers and storms in the afternoons through the mid-week. Surface low pressure in eastern Canada may eject some midlayer overcast into the Carolinas on Thursday, bringing temperatures down a tick or two
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance for some pop up showers, High 90, Low 72
Thursday – Mostly cloudy and at times overcast. Scattered showers, High 86, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms.  High 87, Low 71
Thursday – Cloudy in the morning with scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 84, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and breaks of sun with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 90, Low 73
Thursday – Considerable cloudiness with a thunderstorm High 83, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 72
Thursday – A slight chance of showers b73efore noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Partly sunny,  High 86, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, High 88, Low 73
Thursday – Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 83, Low 71

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 83, Low 75
Thursday – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 84, Low 74

It will be nice to ratchet the heat down wherever we can. Some storms are just starting to pop up in the Blue Ridge Mountains to the west as we grabbed this satellite image.

July Forecaster of the Month

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Do you like surprises? I like surprises, so I am a fan of how this month turned out. WeatherNation, who very often gloms on to the Weather Service Forecast, found itself oscillating between the Weather Service, the Weather Channel and sometimes it’s own forecast, and managed to grab the Forecaster of the Month award for the month of July. Cagey strategy, and a big reward.

OutletForecast Wins (year)
Weatherbug6.33
Accuweather5.99
The Weather Channel4.83
National Weather Service4.83
Victoria-Weather3.99
WeatherNation3.83
Forecast.io2.16

The peak of the heat wave

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The Pacific Northwest is had a hot spell at the end of July. Sure, it was not quite as long lasting as the one that came last year, but it was just as hot. Last Friday in Corvallis, hit 99, and was 96 on Saturday. As I said, fortunately, temperatures aren’t still that warm, but they lasted long enough that wild fires really exploded in southern Oregon and northern California. Hopefully, they are more well behaved than in recent years. The forecast in Corvallis was overheated, but a fairly well behaved. The Weather SErvice and WeatherNation drew level on the verification.
Friday – High 99, Low 62
Saturday – High 96, Low 62

Grade: A-C

June Forecaster of the Month

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We’ve made it all the way to August, and we haven’t awarded the FOTM to our June forecaster yet! That is a consequence of the active forecast and road trip schedule we’ve had of late, but now, certainly, is the time to give some meteorologists their due.

June was a mercifully slow start to the summer, with temperatures and storms more manageable than we’ve seen in recent years. July started to go off the rails, but we can appreciate Victoria-Weather’s victory for June with some sort of peace. Congrats to us!

OutletForecast Wins (year)
Weatherbug6.33
Accuweather5.16
The Weather Channel4.33
National Weather Service4
Victoria-Weather3.49
WeatherNation2
Forecast.io0.66

Heat and repeat

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The end of last week in Abilene didn’t promise many changes. A slow, slow moving boundary was sinking towards the Lone Star State, but ultimately, no changes were ever seen in Abilene. Like, none. It was 101 for a high, 80 for a low on each day of our verification, with nary a drop of rain. The Weather Channel and WeatherNation secured a tie for the verification.
Actuals: Thursday – High 101, Low 80
Friday – High 101, Low 80

Grade: A-B

Coming Soon…

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There are quite a few news stories in the world of weather, and we will take some time to discuss them in the next few days. Fewer forecasts, but we won’t forget the rest of the weather news.

Winston-Salem, North Carolina

Benton Harbor, Michigan

Road Trip from Grand Forks, North Dakota to Corvallis, Oregon

Hotlanta

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It’s been a tough week in eastern Kentucky, as it became a focal point for heavy rain as a slow moving boundary left even slower moving torrents of rain across the state, ultimately leaving dozens dead in flash flooding, and countless more with their lives turned upside down. The news from the area continues to get worse as we find out more, and we continue to keep residents in our thoughts.

Often when rain becomes centered on one spot, as it did in Kentucky, the threat for scattered showers away from that main area diminishes. Such was the case on Tuesday and Wednesday, when Atlanta, which had been forecast for some light showers on either of those two days, successfully avoided precipitation. Temperatures climbed a couple of degrees warmer than anyone had, but it was a generally tightly clustered verification. The Weather Channel and WeatherNation were strange bedfellows, tying for the top spot.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 91, Low 75
Wednesday – High 92, Low 75

Grade: B-C

Corvallis, Oregon

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Most of the people that live in Oregon live along in a north-south corridor adjacent to the Cascades. Oregon State is in Corvallis, and the town and the school are well within the corridor.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t note the historic flooding in the Ohio Valley. St. Louis recently broke a single day record for rainfall, while eastern Kentucky is seeing a rising death toll thanks to flash flooding caused by the deluge. Our thoughts are with those affected by these disasters.

At 656PM, PT, Corvallis was reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with clear skies. Salem and Eugene, on either side of the city, were reporting temperatures of 95 degrees. Of course, along the coast with the Marine layer, temperatures were hovering in the mid 50s with clouds and fog. There was no forecast for that haze to press further ashore.
Flow over the western US is fairly stagnant, with any jet structure only found well to the north, originating in the northern Yukon. As a result, heat has been allowed to build in the Pacific Northwest. While the Gulf of Alaska low was currently absent, a weak wave shifting closer to the shore will bring some cooler air late on Saturday, to be joined by some clouds.
Tomorrow – Hot, High 96, Low 60
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 95, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 98, Low 61
Saturday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 97, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Blazing sunshine and hot; possible danger of dehydration and heat stroke while doing strenuous activities High 97, Low 60
Saturday – Blazing sunshine and hot; possible danger of dehydration and heat stroke while doing strenuous activities High 96, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 98, Low 61
Saturday – Sunny and hot, High 97, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 60
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 98, Low 61
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 62

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 93, Low 65
Saturday – Humid throughout the day. High 93, Low 63

It’s hot, but fortunately, the heat won’t be as intense or as resilient as last year’s heat wave. It is expected to break by the end of the weekend. For now, you can certainly see the clear skies over most of Oregon, but the intrusion of low clouds and fog over the coast is evident as well.

No room at the top

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The forecast for Baltimore proved to be fairly easy to wrap our heads around. The end of the week was going to be hot, and generally free of any atmospheric changes. Mission accomplished! Everyone came in between 3 and 5 degrees of error, and there was no precipitation to worry about, so everyone can feel good about their day. Accuweather, the Weather Service and Weather Nation can feel just a little better about it though.
Actuals: Friday – High 95, Low 74
Saturday – High 97, Low 77

Grade: A

Abilene, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Abilene is the first big town you see west of Fort Worth in Texas. The entire state is so big, though, it is a regional hub all by itself out there in the Plains.

At 752AM, CT, Abilene was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 82. West Texas and much of the southern Plains were south of a mostly stationary boundary along the Kansas-Oklahoma border, and it promised to get well into the triple digits south of this boundary. Heat advisories were in place for the area.
Little change is anticipated for the region. The boundary has sagged south through the last couple of days, and a wave moving through the Canadian Prairies will push it even further south. The dry line will become more entrenched in eastern New Mexico, and a few clouds and increased humidity in Abilene may bring temperatures down out of the triple digit range, but if then, not by much.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and hot, High 100, Low 77
Friday – Partly cloudy, more humid, High 98, low 78

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies High 101, Low 79
Friday – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 99, Low 79

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and very warm High 101, Low 79
Friday – Mostly sunny and very warm High 98, Low 79

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 101, Low 79
Friday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Sunny and hot, High 99, Low 80

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 100, Low 81
Friday – Sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 97, Low 81

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 101, Low 79
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 100, Low 78

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 100, Low 77
Friday – Humid throughout the day. High 100, Low 78

Hot, hot hot. But for the most part, everyone agrees it will “cool down” a bit on Friday. Make sure the sweaters are nearby.