There are phrases that have been around the meteorological lexicon for years, and then get adopted into the media, and become part of what many find to be a sensationalized parlance. The polar vortex stands out to me, as does the bomb cyclone. These are real, definable things that suddenly take on a more ominous tone because they are uttered on the news regularly.

Right now, we are hearing about the “Atmospheric River”. Allow me to show you what that result of the atmospheric river is on satellite. It’s unusual, I think, to look at satellite over the north Pacific, because it isn’t somewhere we usually look at, and the perspective is a tad wonky, but here it is.

And that, boxed in red, is an area of low pressure, showing off the typical comma shaped cold front with a little warm front evidenced as angling towards San Francisco Bay. It’s not particularly unusual, but the discussion surrounding this feature is probably amplified by the persistent drought, which has rendered rainmakers rare over the last several years, and ongoing concerns over climate change flaring anxiety over every weather phenomenon.

The jet, in response to oceanic circulations, tends to rise and form a ridge at the California Coast, leading to the semi permanent Gulf of Alaska low (which feeds moisture into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest with regularity) and a semi permanent area of surface high pressure west of the Baja Peninsula. In the winter, the jet is more apt to dig a little bit further south, because the cold California coastal waters don’t cause the atmosphere to differ as extensively as happens in the summer, and that coastal ridge can break down.

So the jet sinks south, and a regular old area of low pressure moves into California. It is coming off the ocean, so it will be laden with moisture, and it is interacting with the terrain, so it will dump a lot of precipitation, especially in the Sierras. This will do a lot of work in refilling dried reservoirs as the snow melts in the spring, and is how California usually maintains a sustainable quality of life. The southern source of the jet has led, in the past, to some “atmospheric rivers” to be dubbed “the Pineapple Express”.

All they are, really, is a more southerly jet that brings consequential weather to the West Coast. he phenomenon isn’t strange, but the location is, made a little bit more unusual by the recent climatology.

We’ve made it through 2022, and are looking forward to 2023. The end of the year saw The Weather Channel claim the final prize, though the newly retired Forecast.io was close behind. The Forecast.io site is already shuttered, and there are widespread lamentations over the DarkSky app. After the few years we’ve used that site as one our verification comparables, I can confirm that it was one of the easiest to use, and most readable, accessible outputs. On the other hand, it was consistently the least accurate, proving the continued value of meteorologists inserting their input in the process. In fact, despite Forecast.io’s strong end, it was the worst outlet of the year, and it wasn’t close. Alternately, the National Weather Service was abominable in December, but were the top forecast of the year. They had a steady hand throughout the season, racking up only the third most individual forecast wins of the year, but still won the year’s title. It was made closer by their sloppy end, but the first 11 months were so good, it didn’t matter. Congrats to the Weather Service on their year, and a Happy 2023 to everyone!

My parents live part of the year in south Florida, due east of Fort Myers Beach, which was among the hardest hit areas by Hurricane Ian this September, along with Sanibel Island. Inland, in places like Estero, Bonita Springs and the south side of Fort Myers, the lack of coastline prevented the storm surge and flooding that proved so catastrophic to Fort Myers Beach, wiping the beloved Time Square shopping area off the map.

Southwest Florida had a very good run, avoiding hurricanes for a very long time. That was true until 2017, actually, when, after battering the Caribbean and the Florida Keys, Hurricane Irma made landfall at Marco Island, and moved through the Peninsula from south to north. Ian made landfall further to the north, and was more specifically aimed at the Fort Myers area.

There was a grove of palm trees that I particularly admired the first time I was down there, about 10 years ago. 3 royal palms stood near the pin of one of the short holes of the course, and were a photogenic and stately landmark at the facility. I took a picture and had it as my phone background for a while.

Trust me, they were stately. This is a screen shot of a years old picture, and don’t do them justice. 5 years after this picture was taken, Irma came to pass. Irma decimated the foliage of Estero. The tree cover was significantly less around the facility, and what trees weren’t taken down were defoliated. Cypresses were laid bare, and stood out the most. The palms that weren’t felled stood proud. Of that trio, that was the case.

Only one of the palms survived Irma, and the tall palm in the trees behind the stand, for example, was also lost. But this pine stood as a stately welcome and a great object to aim at from the tee box.

Ian was a different beast. The damage with Ian produced more structural damage. My parents’ building was ok, though the carport was destroyed. Throughout the town, there are still tarps on roofs. Even buildings adjacent to their facility had unrepaired roof damage. The most noticeable damage to a visitor was in the signs for various venues. There was a Waffle Us and a Chi i around town, with letters gone and yet unrepaired. Still more signs were completely decimated, living only a ring where a corporate brand had once been.

That remaining palm though, stood tall. He definitely looks worse for wear, and is a stoic reminder of what Irma and Ian have wrought on the region.

A massive feature moving through the center of the country, the second this month, is bringing blizzard conditions to the Northern Plains, but it will be remembered for quite some time for the path of destruction it is weaving across the southern US.

The storms started yesterday, with tornadoes striking the Dallas-Fort Worth metro, including causing 5 injuries at a Sam’s Club and mall in Grapevine.

There were even more tragic consequences south of Shreveport, where tornadoes claimed the lives of two near Keachi as the tornado swept through some mobile homes. There was another prominent cluster of tornado reports between Monroe, Louisiana and Vicksburg, Mississippi. Fortunately, only one injury was reported there.

The storm carried on today, and started early. Storms fired early, and slightly to the southeast of Tuesday’s storm activity. Storms were seen in Mississippi through much of the day, before tornadoes struck throughout the city of New Orleans. Fortunately, none appear to have been major tornadoes, but they struck impoverished, poorly soiled and urban areas, so damage has been great.

Reports specifically have come out of Gretna and the Algiers and Arabi neighborhoods of New Orleans. Arabi was clipped by a tornado earlier this year, doubling down on bad luck for New Orleans. A tornado watch and the threat thereof continue this evening in the Florida Panhandle and south Georgia. Tornadoes were also noted northeast of Apalachicola today.

An impressive jet trough digging into the middle of the country is urging the helicity necessary to produce these tornadoes, and sustain them over the course of several days. In addition, the depth of this trough is allowing the cold air necessary to clash with the marine air as far south as New Orleans. The base of the trough is going to continue to shift to the east, taking with it the threat of continued severe weather, aside from some early straight line winds in north Florida tomorrow.