from Victoria-Weather
This image is from the NWS office in Hanford, in the central Valley of California. You thought we only gave percent chances for rainfall, huh? It’s pretty dry in California, so I guess meteorologists there just need to make use of the Stats classes we all took in college.
We made it through the most stressful month of hurricane season, and are moving into at a breakneck pace towards winter. I think autumn and the beginning part to winter are the hardest seasons to forecast for. Those first snow storms are impossible to get right. Wish us all luck
Happy October, everyone. The next several days will take us to several spots in the middle of the country. Let’s hope that nothing crazy happens on the coast, right?
Bowling Green, Kentucky
Racine, Wisconsin
Victoria, Texas
Road Trip from Racine to Victoria
Olympia, Washington
It’s one last blast of summer for the Central Plains, with record heat cancelling the Twin Cities Marathon yesterday, hours before it was scheduled to start. This incredible warmth is only hear for a little bit longer though. By the end of the week, places like Great Falls and Bismarck are going to be playing footsie with the freezing line in the mornings.
We were light on formal forecasts in September, but that doesn’t take away from how big a weather time it was, from flooding rains to tropical storms, we covered a lot of ground. Of course, not much for the verified forecasts, but that’s fine, and it worked out well for Clime, who took the top spot for the month.
| Outlet | Forecast Wins (year) |
| Victoria-Weather | 6.83 |
| The Weather Channel | 4.83 |
| Clime | 3.83 |
| National Weather Service | 2.5 |
| WeatherNation | 2.5 |
| Weatherbug | 2.5 |
| Accuweather | 2 |
If I have to look at this, then so do you.
In some parts of the country, the countdown to sub-freezing temperatures is on. There is already snow in the forecast for higher peaks out west. The clock is ticking for people that are still soaking up the last bits of summer like weather. The brief sojourn through autumn only brings us one place: Winter.
Temperatures are usually all over the place, even if there is a general trend to a season. Even on the warmest winters, I only remember the coldest days, for example. What really separates winters is how much snow you get through the chilly season.
The beginning of 2024 remains to be seen, but to conclude the 2023, CPC’ has the outlook for those final three months. ‘s outlook doesn’t suggest anything too out of the ordinary.
If you were here earlier, you’ll remember that the Gulf Coast was in a drought, and a sloppy fall will help that. Don’t expect a lot of major early season systems, but there will be a few, emerging in the high Plains and headed for the Great Lakes. There will be snow, but not blizzards.
This is, of course, a look at October through December. For those that aren’t ready for summer, at least in the eastern two thirds of the country, the end of September and the beginning of October are going to be notably warmer than normal.
Ophelia was a soaker on the East Coast earlier this week, but right now there are two disturbances in the Atlantic basin, and neither are expected to significantly impact American interests. Tropical Storm Phillippe is going to diminish as he winds into the northern Antilles, and the next area that the NHC is monitoring is expected to spiral into the open ocean, bothering nobody.
The drought map as summer 2023 winds down is much less aggressive than it has been typically. All the snow, and Tropical Storm Hilary have really taken care of things out west. A soaking rain in the upper Midwest will see some of those areas see their drought levels reduced at the next update. The glaring areas are in two places that typically see a lot of moisture, the Northwest and the western Gulf Coast, so before too long, one would imaging they will see some moisture as well.
