Muncie had a rainy end to the month of April. Steadier rain fell on the 29th, the final Monday of the month, but there was still a enough to measure a hundredth of an inch on the 30th. Highs in the 70s gave a taste of spring to the region, and while overnight lows were balmy, they were a hair below expectations. Ultimately, the spot with the coolest low is the winner. That so happens to be Victoria-Weather. Actuals: Monday April 29th – .29″ of rain, High 73, Low 61 Tuesday, April 30th – .01″ of rain, High 74, Low 59
These are the storm reports from yesterday, featuring a whopping 762 reports stretching from their origin in southern Missouri and following a wave through Tennessee into downstate North Carolina. You really couldn’t have asked for a more organized storm system. Usually, you see a few disparate tracks of short lived storm, but this one set up in Missouri and just kept on trucking. The other reports aren’t even in conjunction with the main batch. It’s not just the tornado outbreaks that are strong thunderstorms.
Also, I know we are overdue for a couple of verifications, but our last two forecasts were in Muncie and Goldsboro. Nice work by this complex to avoid our towns. It was a lot closer to Muncie the day before, when tornadoes started in the Kalamazoo area and stretched south along the Ohio-Indiana border
I take two days of forecast data and regurgitate here, but there is obviously a lot that goes into being a National Weather Service Meteorologist. Or maybe it isn’t so obvious. Take a look at the exhaustive briefing from the Lincoln office of the NWS.
Not something you always associate with North Dakota, but the NWS in Grand Forks noted that many sites in the eastern part of the state were 3-4 degrees warmer than normal for the month.
My latest update referred back to Boise, and how close to spring it was getting even there. In the Carolinas, I think this would have been a pretty late breaking bit of news. They are aware.
At 255PM, ET, Goldsboro was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 85 degrees. Three was a bullseye of 90 nearby in Raleigh, but it is warm everywhere in the Carolinas. Fortunately, temperatures are not being boosted further by sweltering humidity, with dew points below 60. While things have been active in the center of the country, the east coast is dominated by an upper level ridge. The latent alto cumulus that just exists in the southeast throughout the summer thanks to oceanic and Gulf moisture seems to be reaching a barrier at the southern end of the Appalachians, and isn’t moving across theSome sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Very warm border from South Carolina. A boundary moving into the region from the west will arrive at the Appalachians on Saturday morning and struggle to get moisture into the Carolina Plains as well, however the persistent flow over the mountains will lead to some lee troughing. This localized circulation will draw some moisture into the area, and late shower activity is possible Saturday in Goldsboro. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 63 Saturday – Late clouds with a chance of showers, High 83, Low 64
TWC: Tomorrow – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Very warm High 89, Low 63 Saturday – Cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 84, Low 64
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and very warm High 89. Low 63 Saturday – Cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly later High 83, Low 62
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 62 Saturday – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 63
WB: Tomorrow – Partly Sunny, High 88, Low 68 Saturday – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 82, Low 66
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 87, Low 62 Saturday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 80, Low 64
CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 88, Low 63 Saturday – Rain Showers, High 81, Low 64
You can see the scattered clouds through South Carolina that just filter out when you hit the Tar Heel State.
I feel like I’ve seen this banana in the middle of the country on the SPC severe weather extended outlook for a month straight now. Is the extended outlook broken? Who do we call to get this fixed? I think some people in Omaha, Wichita and Oklahoma City would like the number.
These are the spring thaw dates from the Boise WFO, one of the high elevation spots that is more prone to extended frost and freeze seasons, and even out there, we are approaching the end of their typical season. It’s almost summer!
Heat index temperatures around metro Manila this week have been in the triple digits, and aren’t expected to drop in the near future. The thick, tropical air mass is expected to remain in place north of the ITCZ and south of the more active trade pattern, which is soaking south China but little else. Looking at the long range model outlook, there isn’t really a change in pattern either.
It will likely take a tropical wave moving through to kick up some seabreezes and move air around, though we are in the dry season for the Asian tropics. It’s never really cool in the Philippines, though, so bear that in mind when thinking about what kind of unbearable heat would lead to it being newsworthy.
It’s been a rough stretch for a large swath of the Plains. Will this weather be able to sneak eastward? Well not sneak, more like charge.
At 851ET, Muncie was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with mostly sunny skies. There was a brisk south-southwest wind funneling the warm, moisture rich air northward within the warm sector of a strong system that has caused serious problems for the middle of the country. Fortunately, the associated cold front is occluded and significantly weaker by this point. Further, the boundary is anticipated to pass through Muncie overnight and into tomorrow morning. A perturbation along the boundary, the bit of energy bringing storms to Texas today, will slow the boundary down and some light rain will linger through most of the afternoon. While there is clear air behind the front, it will take too long to push out of Muncie to really change the pattern in town. Lingering overnight clouds from Monday into Tuesday will keep things mild overnight, and Tuesday will be sunnier than Monday, blunting any temperature downgrade even further. In fact, Tuesday may end up being warmer than Monday. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm. High 74, Low 62 Tuesday – Showers in the morning, High 76, Low 59
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional rain in the afternoon, High 77, Low 65 Tuesday – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. High 74, Low 58
AW: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning; cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 75, Low 65 Tuesday – Partly sunny, nice and warm High 76, Low 56
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 75, Low 64 Tuesday – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 58
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Then, mostly cloudy with showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. high 72, Low 65 Tuesday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon, High 70, Low 61
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and a chance of storms, High 74, Low 63 Tuesday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers and isolated storms, High 72, Low 59
CLI: Tomorrow – Drizzle, High 75, Low 64 Tuesday – Drizzle, High 73, Low 59
It’s looking pretty clear in Muncie, and it looks like they are going to dodge the worst effects of this latest severe weather outbreak.
