We took care of one Bloomington, and now it is on to the next, this time in Indiana. As a Purdue grad, I was always unlikely to feel comfortable in the home of Indiana University, but not everyone felt that was the case. After a few early showers, it laid out perfectly for The Weather Channel, who pegged the forecast quite accurately, missing by only a few degrees of error to wrap up July. Actuals: Thursday, July 25th: .02 inches of rain, High 86, Low 65 Friday, July 26th, High 85, Low 63
We are planning on continuing the work of surrounding the Gulf of Mexico to begin August. It’s not as interesting as it could be this time of year, at least in Texas. Hurricane Debby, of course, made landfall down the coast in Apalachee Bay this morning.
At 853PM, PT, Beaumont was reporting a temperature of 85 degrees with clear skies. Debby has moved into the Carolinas, with high pressure building into the south central US behind her. Generally laminar flow in the northern US is causing a stagnant pattern in the southern US, with no cycling pressure centers to freshen things up. This also means that Debby will not be motivated in any particular direction. This will mean continued soaking, eventually flooding rains as she wobbles back to the west in Georgia and South Carolina. Fortunately for Beaumont, this will mean that moisture is going to be drawn to the Tropical feature, and will keep the town quite dry for the next couple of days. Tomorrow – Sunny, High 99, Low 76 Wednesday – Continued sun, High 98, Low 76
TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 97, Low 76 Wednesday – Sunshine. Hot. High 99, Low 76
AW: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 75 Wednesday – Hot with plenty of sunshine; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 100, Low 76
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 97, Low 77 Wednesday – Sunny and hot, High 99, Low 77
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, Low 78 Wednesday -Sunny, High 98, Low 76
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 78 Wednesday – Sunny, High 99, Low 79
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 98, Low 75 Wednesday – Sunny, High 99, Low 76
Satellite shows just how quiet it is in the south central, which means that it’s just going to be piping hot.
Well, we are deep into the summer, so we should probably take on a road trip, right? This journey will cover 550 miles, and will last only a day. It’s just a shot down I-65 at a pace of 67.9mph. That’s cooking! Let’s cook down to Montgomery!
Bloomington, Indiana
Low pressure is going to keep churning through the southern Great Lakes tomorrow, with rain continuing to wind around the center of low pressure, we are going to have to navigate through a few showers and embedded thunderstorms, especially in southern Indiana. More isolated storms are going to pop up in Kentucky and Tennessee, but being later in the day, they will probably be a little bit spicier. Fortunately, this should be the last of the wet weather. Unless you are talking about humidity, because it will be unbelievably sticky, all the way down to Montgomery.
Our Bloomington streak is over. We’re headed down to Alabama as we reach the dog days of summer. Get ready to sweat.
At 253PM, ET, Montgomery was reporting a temperature of 90 degrees with clear skies. There was a smattering of isolated thunderstorms in southern Alabama, thanks to the remnants of a cold front trying to move into the area. There isn’t really a cold front in the traditional sense, but really just a change in wind direction. This may lead to less haze in the morning tomorrow, but isn’t a particularly significant change to the airmass. Of future concern is an area of low pressure in the Great Lakes. It’s not particularly dynamic, as is often the case with summer time low pressure, but it is tapping into a wealth of heat and humidity. Quite a bit of rain and thunder is expected in the southern Great Lakes and Lower Ohio Valley through the day today, and will flare up again tomorrow evening when it reaches the western slope of the Appalachians. A band of showers and storms is expected to sink south overnight to southern Alabama, with some showers and storms becoming possible for Montgomery in the morning. A tropical invest moving through the Greater Antilles will arrive in the eastern Gulf in the evening on Saturday, and may inflame the boundary again, but by this point, it should be south of Montgomery Tomorrow – Very hot, High 99, Low 79 Saturday – Isolated showers in the morning, then partly cloudy late, High 95, Low 78
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. Hot and humid. Late rain High 98, Low 77 Saturday – Mostly sunny skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 95, Low 77
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 98, Low 76 Saturday – Periods of clouds and sun with a heavy thunderstorm in the afternoon; thunderstorms can cause flash flooding High 97, Low 74
NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Sunny and hot High 98, Low 77 Saturday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Sunny High 95, Low 77
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 97, Low 78 Saturday – Sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 96, Low 78
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 97, Low 77 Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 94, Low 78
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 98, Low 77 Saturday – Light rain showers, High 95, Low 75
Well, I said you were going to sweat. We’ll see how the showers pop up tomorrow, but I feel good about some stability building in. The wild card will be how much rain falls on Saturday.
As you may recall, we had back to back forecasts in Bloomingtons of the Midwest. the first was in Illinois, which, aside from some early rain on the 20th, with departing wet weather, was a pretty comfortable set of days in central Illinois. It was a comfy forecast as well, with no real surprises, and an A effort from winning outlet, WeatherNation. Actuals: July 20th, .01 inches of rain, High 78, Low 58 July 21st, High 81, Low 65
We are only ever so slightly updating our forecast information from our last one. We are going from one state to the next, and not even changing the name of the town.
At 756PM, ET, Bloomington was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature 76 degrees. Thunderstorms were popping up from Shoals southeast towards Sellersburg, and they were generally moving away from Bloomington. High pressure is building over the Great Lakes, pushing the last vestiges of a cold front south and across the Ohio River. This should lead to some stability and fairly clear skies tomorrow in Bloomington. The ridge is small in territory, but will be an effective shepherd, pushing any rising moisture around it and to the east, away from Bloomington. The remainder of the week will be dry for this tract of southern Indiana, but heat will start moving back in even behind the cold front. Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 62 Friday – Sunday, a bit warmer, High 86, Low 60
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 85, Low 65 Friday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 86F. Winds light and variable. High 86, Low 61
AW: Tomorrow – Beautiful with times of clouds and sun High 82, Low 65 Friday – Mostly cloudy High 84, Low 60
NWS: Tomorrow – A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 84, Low 66 Friday – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 62
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, High 82, Low 66 Friday – Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 82, Low 67
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 84, Low 63 Friday – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 63
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 83, Low 65 Friday – Partly cloudy, High 85, Low 61
Not sure why there is rain in the forecast this morning, but there was some south of town late in the evening. I tried to save an image, but it was corrupted, and now there is nothing going on.
Finally, the Western US was inundated with a drought quenching rain throughout the winter and into the spring. It was a profound relief for a part of the world that had a drought for so long, and endured a threat for fires every summer for years, and a relief for cynical newscasters who didn’t want viewers to think they were watching reruns every year.
And yet here we are again, buffeted by wild fire stories. Granted, they aren’t as widespread, either the fires or the stories, but they are cropping up again. The stories aren’t as prevalent because the threat to life and property hasn’t been as immediate, and the fires aren’t quite as encompassing because the environment is a bit less dry than it’s been in years.
But even in the best years, fires are always possible out west. Just because the winter was wet doesn’t mean that holds for the summer. There is ground water, but it’s always dry in the summer out west. One thing that compounds the threat is that it’s also extremely warm. The heat helps to dry things out and create more fuel to the fires.
Additionally, we are in the midst of the monsoon season in the intermountain west. While we associate the word monsoon with the inundating rains of south Asia, in the western US, it means widespread thunderstorms, but those storms may not necessarily come with rain. Lightning with these storms has historically been the natural cause of wildfires, and it is in full force again this summer.
The dog days are here. and even though some relief is coming for the coast, the Rockies will stay hot, dry and favorable for thunderstorms and wildfires.
It was a very stormy Monday night for northern Illinois, as a derecho swept through, touching nearly every location in the state. Here’s hoping that things return to Normal in the Bloomington area soon.
At 956AM, CT, Bloomington was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 60 degrees, a pleasant morning in the middle of what has been a warm, wet summer. Flow aloft is weak across the country, which will allow things to warm up under the sun, but humidity through the day should remain comfortable. High pressure will continue to hold through today and to start the weekend on Saturday, however an upper level trough is then expected to rotate in from the Upper Midwest. A mostly disorganized batch of energy will tap into the Gulf of Mexico, pulling in a steady rise in moisture, and contributing to clouds and the potential for a few isolated storms on Sunday evening. These storms won’t match those seen on Monday, instead functioning as weak pop up cells that will end afternoon picnics a bit early. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 58 Sunday – Increasing clouds, and an isolated storm, High 82, Low 63
TWC: Tomorrow – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. High 79 Low 57 Sunday – Cloudy. High 80, Low 62
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and delightful High 78, Low 58 Sunday – Comfortable with intervals of clouds and sun High 81, Low 62
NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 80, Low 59 Sunday – Partly sunny, High 81, Low 63
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 58 Sunday – Partly sunny, High 78, Low 63
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 59 Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 64
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 80, Low 57 Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 60
Look at me, Mr. Negative. I do have warmer temperatures, because it’s July and the sun is out, and I am the only outlet with rain in the forecast. It’s been so wet, why slow down now? Satellite imagery is pretty clear.
If you go back and look at the forecast for Punta Gorda, you will see that, mysteriously, I said on the 8th it would be mostly sunny through the day, late evening…. and then I let it hang. If I had concluded that statement with “showers” or something like that, Victoria-Weather would have drawn level with Weatherbug for the forecast victory, but that wasn’t how it shook out. Instead, Weatherbug was the sole victor thanks largely to their uncomfortably warm low temperature forecast which matched the uncomfortably warm nights in Punta Gorda. Victoria-Weather would have been close if we’d employed the correct precipitation forecast, because we were the only outlet that anticipated how warm it would be during the day. Actuals: July 7th, .01 inches of rain, High 95, Low 80 July 8th, .02 inches of rain, High 95, Low 81
