Rocky Mount, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We keep tearing through forecasts in election swing states, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona and now North Carolina. It’s not intentional, but it’s certainly quite the coincidence.

At 553PM, ET, Rocky Mount was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with fair skies. High pressure over the eastern seaboard was finally starting to be shoved off shore by a deep trough in the plains. Flow at the southwestern end of the ridge is bringing onshore flow, including a few clouds and light showers over South Carolina and Georgia. Overnight tonight, the flow will moderate, and Rocky Mount will stay dry overnight.
The NHC is monitoring Tropical Storm Rafael, which is still south of Jamaica, but will move into the Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period. It isn’t going to be a significant landfalling event for the United States, however the moisture from the storm will be intercepted by the strong boundary moving through the Plains, blunting it’s progress and keeping the Carolinas dry through Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 52
Wednesday – Increasing clouds, High 78, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of fog early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Very warm. High 79, Low 52
Wednesday – Cloudy. Very warm. High 81, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of morning fog; otherwise, very warm with sunshine and a few clouds; dry weather to get out and vote High 80, Low 52
Wednesday – Very warm with periods of clouds and sunshine; a shower in places in the afternoon High 82, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy dense fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 79, Low 50
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 80, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. Patchy dense fog in the morning with visibility one quarter mile or less at times, High 80, Low 54
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 79, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 56
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 79, Low 61

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 52
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 57

Of our various forecasts of late, this was surely the easiest. Happy voting, and a happy end to election season!

Avoiding any activity in Athens

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For the weekend, Athens found itself at the coming together of a large ridge of high pressure and an area of low pressure. On shore flow was at it’s peak, and rising moisture seemed likely. Some outlets though rain was coming, but in the end, there wasn’t enough moisture. A surface trough oscillated away from Athens, which took away any trigger for wet weather, but the high overcast still worked to prevent warm temperatures. The Weather Service had the top forecast in town, thanks to a solid appreciation of the temperature trends.
Actuals: Saturday, High 79, Low 58
Sunday, High 71, Low 62

Grade A-C

Phoenix, Arizona

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s time for our second forecast of the day, and as luck would have it, things project to be quite different in the second forecast compared to the first.

At 451PM, MT, Phoenix was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees. Scattered showers were flowing through much of the Southwest, but right now, Phoenix was only reporting showers in the area, but not at the airport. At the upper levels, the base of a deep, autumnal trough as digging into the Four Corners, and cycling moisture through the region, leading to the showers in Phoenix, a band of thunderstorms south of the city near Casa Grande, and even some snow at elevation along the New Mexico border.
Flow through the jet will weaken over the next 12 hours, as moisture also shifts to the northeast into the Plains. Still, with the upper level trough still in place, don’t expect a dramatic warm up, or even significant stretches of sunshine. Wind will pick up again on Tuesday evening, though expect conditions to remain mostly dry.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 71, Low 50
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 73, Low 51
Tuesday – Generally sunny.  High 74, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Cool with plenty of sunshine High 72, Low 50
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and cool; dry weather to get out and vote High 73, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 50
Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 52
Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 51
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 49

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 52
Tuesday – Sunny, High 74, Low 50

OK, so that doesn’t sound so bad for election day, but it sure sounds like a chilly way to spend a couple days for Arizonans. An active radar pattern appears in Arizona.

Racine, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Regardless of your political affiliation, Tuesday is election day, and Wisconsin is one of the important swing states. Our forecast for Racine isn’t just a big forecast, but it is an historic one as well. Not to putt too fine a point on it.

At 1253PM, CT, Racine was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with brisk wind and rain. The showers were a bit more scattered along the shores of Lake Michigan, but most of Wisconsin was seeing rain at this time, and every resident of Wisconsin will see at least a drop of rain today. Racine, and really all of Wisconsin, finds itself at the northwestern point of a slow moving and broad trough, which has initiated the stratiform rain across America’s Dairy Land.
The jet streak running from the Red River Valley northeast to the western Great Lakes is not going to advance eastward, but will get steady recycling energy along the current. This will be reflected at the surface through bursts of energy bringing training rain and storms north through Wisconsin, particularly on The best chance for heavy rain, along with some isolated thunderstorms will be overnight Monday into Tuesday. Expect things to start cooling down late in the day, though snowfall isn’t particularly likely.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, with heavy rain coming late, High 70. Low 59
Tuesday – Heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, clearing and cooling late. 66, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain early…then remaining cloudy with showers in the afternoon. High 68, Low 58
Tuesday – Rain showers, with winds diminishing later in the day. High 67, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy, windy and warmer with occasional rain and a thunderstorm High 66, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers; windy and mild; prepare for wet weather if you are headed out to vote High 65, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 3pm, then a chance of rain and thunderstorms between 3pm and 4pm, then rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. High 67, Low 57
Tuesday – Rain and possibly a thunderstorm High 68, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning and then a chance of light rain in the late morning and early afternoon. Light rain likely and slight chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon, High 66, Low 56
Tuesday – Light rain and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, and light rain in the afternoon. High 66, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with rain and a chance of thunderstorms, High 65, Low 57
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with light rain and isolated thunderstorms, High 65, Low 60

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 68, Low 56
Tuesday – Rain Showers, High 68, Low 60

It’s going to be interesting to see how quickly it cools off on Tuesday, because not everyone had hourly forecasts through the day. For tonight, though, look at all the rain in Wisconsin.

Human input

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With a wave of energy coming off the Gulf of Alaska, it seemed possible that Portland would see some rain on the 23rd. The model guidance had it, and the outlets that lean a bit more closely on extracting data explicitly from models included it in their forecast. Victoria-Weather was the only man powered forecaster to include it. Ultimately, Portland didn’t see any rain. Score one for the old fashioned way. The Weather Channel secured victory, while Accuweather collected their third 2nd place in a row!
Actuals: October 23rd, High 58, Low 43
October 24th, High 60, Low 39

Grade: A-C

Athens, Georgia

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are headed to north Georgia, and the home town of the state’s biggest University. Athens was at the periphery of Hurricane Helene’s deadliest swath, so even more so, I am hopeful for a quiet forecast.

At 1251AM, ET, Athens was reporting overcast conditions with a temperature of 66 degrees. A cold front was sliding through the region, and dropping temperatures between Atlanta and Chattanooga were leading to a band of fog in the region, and overcast through the region. The boundary is becoming cut off from any synoptic scale forcing, but will continue as a surface trough, expected to pivot back to the north through the coming days.
High pressure is returning to the eastern third of the country, but the weak trough is still showing up in forecast surface analysis. The trough will curiously move to the north on the back side of this anticyclonic flow, lifting away from Athens. The lingering low level moisture will not be compelled out of the region, however, and without adequate sunlight, Sunday looks to be a cooler day than Saturday.
Tomorrow – Cloudy early, then clearing and warm. High 80, Low 62
Sunday – Mostly sunny, warm, High 72, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of patchy fog early, then partly to mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 49
Sunday – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. A few sprinkles possible High 70, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and very warm High 80, Low 59
Sunday – Mostly cloudy and very warm High 72, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and very warm High 79, Low 59
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 71, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of fog in the morning. Partly sunny. High 80, Low 65
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 68, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 60
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 60

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 79, Low 58
Sunday – Rain showers, High 70, Low 58

I think the outlets forecasting rain are using some computer generated interpretation of the lower level moisture, calling it rain when it will instead by fog. Satellite shows just a bit of scattered clouds in the region, which are masking the fog further north.

Updates 11/1

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2:11PM: The strong polarization on either coast is beginning to break down. It’s not going away, but the the cold anomaly out west is coming back to normal. Still warmer out east, which means precipitation is going to continue to be robust right in the middle of the country. Fortunately, it is needed in this area.

8:31PM After the snow and rain yesterday, it’s looking like the dry spell is going to be concluding rather quickly. Don’t be surprised to see more rain through the week in the Twin Cities… but not tonight. The precipitation that was in the area is dissipating fairly rapidly.

10:35PM: There is a marginal risk for severe weather along the Texas-New Mexico border, but nothing is really panning out right now. This same pattern will make things a bit more interesting this weekend. More severe weather, just like earlier this week, is expected west of the Mississippi from Iowa to Oklahoma. It’s sure been an interesting final third of 2024.

Updates 10/30

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2:36PM There is an enhanced risk for severe weather in the center of the country today, which reflects a slow but substantial move towards more seasonal weather. It was 80 yesterday in Minneapolis, and in the low 40s in Bismarck, for example. It’s slow, but the dynamic is there. When I get around to posting forecasts, they promise to be a little bit more interesting.

Updates 10/29

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9:56PM: Are you sick of politics, but still enjoy binary choices of red and blue? Well does the CPC have you covered! High pressure has been running things in the eastern half of the country, but a deep digging trough is moving in out west. That means the temperature outlook is bifurcated.

Unfortunately, just like America, this divide will lead to conflict. Expect storms in the Plains tomorrow, and probably through the week.