Not much!
Washington, DC
Coming soon…
Colorado Springs, Colorado
The Palmer Divide separates Denver from Colorado Springs, and though the topographies of the individual cities may appear similar, they often have very different weather fortunes. Let’s see what happens in Colorado Springs to round out the week.
At 854AM, MT, Colorado Springs was reporting a temperature of 45 degrees with a brisk west wind, gusting to 35mph with scattered clouds. An area of low pressure over the central Plains was leading to a wet day across the Northern Plains, with some light snow wrapping in from the north for Denver. South of the Palmer Divide, things were looking significantly drier, and the winds across the region were leading to red flag warnings for the Colorado High Plains.
Jet flow should remain fairly consistent across the region for the remainder of the week, southwest to northeast, though flow through the jet will continue to strengthen. A trough will begin to propagate along the jet stream in the western United States overnight Thursday to Friday, which will invigorate a warm front in the Plains, and will eventually lead to cyclogenesis in the southern High Plains. Skies will be fairly cloudy throughout the period, thanks to the flow aloft, but they will darken further late Friday, with a chance for a stray drizzle or flurry before midnight and a stormy weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 45, Low 23
Friday – Increasing clouds, wintry mix late, High 40, Low 25
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 45, Low 26
Friday – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will give way to cloudy skies with light rain and snow developing in the afternoon High 40, Low 26
AW: Tomorrow – A bit of morning snow with little or no accumulation followed by a little rain in the afternoon High 47, Low 24
Friday – Cloudy with a little snow with little or no accumulation, mixing with, then changing to rain High 44, Low 28
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (Late snow) High 47, Low 24
Friday – A chance of snow before 3pm, then rain likely, possibly mixed with snow. Mostly cloudy, High 41, Low 26
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny, High 46, Low 28
Friday – Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow in the morning then chance of snow possibly mixed with rain in the afternoon, High 40, Low 29
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 47, Low 24
Friday – Motly cloudy with light wintry mix likely, High 42, Low 26
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 50, Low 28
Friday – Foggy overnight and in the evening. High 47, Low 30
Guidance is pretty reluctant to put much precipitation in Colorado Springs Friday night, but many outlets are going hard for a miserable end to the work week. Look at the radar below, with snow, deceptively heavy, up in Denver and nothing in Colorado Springs. That Palmer Divide sure lives up to it’s billing!
February Forecaster of the Month
Victoria Weather finally got our forecasting groove back, giving you more regular weather updates, and we sure picked the right month to do that. Victoria-Weather cruised to victory, and have a stranglehold on the overall lead for the year. Thanks, February! (Note, Forecast wins posted now only reflect the total wins for the year)
| Outlet | Forecast Wins |
| Victoria-Weather | 4.5 |
| Weatherbug | 1.33 |
| Accuweather | 1.33 |
| The Weather Channel | 1 |
| Forecast.io | 0.83 |
| WeatherNation | |
| National Weather Service |
Waterlogged western Maryland
I wrote recently about the flooding in eastern Kentucky and across West Virginia. Western Maryland, and specifically the city of Cumberland, for which we had a forecast last week, didn’t avoid the persistent soaking rains either. On the last day of February, Cumberland endured daylong rain that accumulated to over an inch. Fortunately, reports of flooding in Maryland weren’t as prolific, but this was enough rain to cause concern. Weatherbug was the top forecast for the end of the month.
Actuals: Saturday – .03 inches of rain, High 47, Low 25
Sunday – 1.21 inches of rain, High 47, Low 40
Grade: C-D
Rapid City, South Dakota to Topeka, Kansas
They are only two states away, but at opposite ends of those big Prairie states. What I am trying to say, is that the distance between Rapid City and Topeka is a little bit longer than I expected. Most of it is on an interstate, so the 686 miles will pass at a pace of 67.3mph. I will spare you the math, that’s a 10 hour drive.
I don’t want to sound too overdramatic, but this drive will be a race against time. An area of low pressure moving out of the southern Rockies is headed right toward Topeka. Our route will go north of the northern most fringe of the rain and then east of the easternmost fringe of rain on Thursday. The rain will finally reach Topeka after midnight on Thursday, which means our drive will be dry, but our day in Topeka will not be.
Topeka, Kansas
I really enjoy forecasting in Kansas. It’s right there, smack dab in the middle of the country, and it gets a little bit of influence from the Rockies, a little from the Gulf. It’s a lot of fun, I think.
At 253, PM, CT, Topeka was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees with clear skies and a brisk southwest wind. High pressure was dominating the picture in the middle of the country, leaving the entirety of Kansas in a pleasant warm air regime. Some brisk southerly winds were being drawn towards low pressure in the Canadian Prairies, but a feature along the Gulf Coast was intercepting moisture across the country, leading to the warm, dry situation in the Plains.
The clear skies and increasing warm weather will continue unabated through the middle of the week, however a fast moving wave presently over the Pacific, off the California coast will move swiftly on a line for Kansas. Rain should wait until after midnight, coming on Friday morning, but some warm south winds will take hold on Thursday afternoon.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 37
Thursday – Increasing clouds late, High 70, Low 34
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 34
Thursday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 70, Low 34
AW: Tomorrow – Mild with plenty of sun High 67, Low 35
Thursday – Mild with plenty of sun High 69, Low 34
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 34
Thursday – Sunny, High 67, Low 34
WB: Tomorrow -Sunny, High 70, Low 35
Thursday – Sunny, High 69, Low 35
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 34
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 67, Low 34
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 69 Low 35
Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 69, Low 36
Look, you can see all of Kansas from space.
Persistent rain brings flooding to Appalachia
The series of systems moving through the Tennessee Valley, towards the Mid-Atlantic, have generally been rainy, but not particularly threatening. Not individually, at least.
The problem is that the stream of moisture took a path through the hills of eastern Kentucky and West Virginia. While steady rain anywhere will end up being problematic, it’s a much shorter trip to disaster in the terrain of the central Appalachians. Take a look at the video from WTHR showing the fast water flowing through the streets of Hurricane, West Virginia, west of Charleston
In the mix
The end of February saw another, somewhat repetitive pattern, with perturbations emerging from the southern Plains and heading for the eastern Great Lakes. It happened more than once, including early last week when we were forecasting in Ocean City, New Jersey. It was about to rain on Sunday night when we looked at the forecast, and to the surprise of a few, that rain mixed with snow on Monday morning. It was more rain than snow, however, and nothing accumulated as the day wore on. Ultimately, it was a tied forecast win for Forecast.io and Victoria-Weather. I had a typo in my forecast, so I am ok letting FIO have the plaudits on this go-around.
Actuals: Monday – .46″ of rain, High 45, Low 31
Tuesday – High 51, Low 35
Grade: B-C
Lubbock, Texas to Cumberland, Maryland
West Texas to Western Maryland. I’m not sure there is a whole lot in common between the two locales, but maybe more than one would initially suspect. It’s a three hour drive, covering 1526 miles. We’ll move at a pace of about 67mph. The first two days will be the longer of the two at 536 miles, with the last day coming at only about a 7 hours drive. Barely anything to worry about.
Day One (Sunday)
Texas and Oklahoma, along with much of the rest of the middle of the country, are going to see a cold front move through overnight tonight. It’s going to really slow down south and west of St. Louis, and throughout a lot of the day, particularly after we cross the Red River north of Wichita Falls, we will be traveling in the wake of the front. There will be some wind and a little bit of rain on the back end of the feature, and I’m not fully confident we will ever get out of it on Sunday. Fortunately, after we arrive in Big Cabin, in northeastern Oklahoma, things will trend drier, and we won’t have to worry about it on the window all night. Boy, Big Cabin… I hope there is some sort of place to stay in Big Cabin.
DAY TWO (Monday)
High pressure will build over the Great Lakes behind the system moving through overnight tonight, bringing cooler temperatures back to the area. Nothing extraordinary, mind you, but perhas back down to normal through Missouri and Illinois, before we pull in for the night in Monrovia, Indiana, the last exit before the Indianapolis metro.
DAY THREE (Tuesday)
The cooler weather will rotate back up towards the North Pole, where it belongs, but the clear skies will remain. Some westerly wind may lead to a few clouds over the higher terrain in West Virginia, but it will be pretty more than impactful on our drive. Cumberland will be dry when we pull into town.
Cumberland, Maryland
Let’s see what’s going on inland in Maryland tonight.
AT 955PM, ET, Cumberland was reporting a temperature of 35 degrees with light rain. That rain wasn’t likely to continue through the night. The back edge of this batch of rain, presently inundating the District of Columbia, was nearby. A more likely change, however, would be that the rain changes to snow before precipitation ceases. A trio of southwest to northeast jet streaks presently lies across the mid Atlantic, fostering an environment of instability, with light rain moving across the region.
Some jet coalescence will occur in the next 12 hours, offering guidance for the activity in the area right now. It will jet off towards New England, while additional cyclogenesis will begin at the base of the trough, over the high Plains. As it drifts into the Upper Midwest, a well developed warm front will track through the area on Sunday morning. Fortunately, the warm air will arrive before the precipitation, and only rain is expected. Unfortunately, the system is going to occlude quickly, and the cold front will also drag itself across western Maryland by Sunday afternoon. Sunday, as a result, will be rainy throughout the day.
Tomorrow – Wintry mix early, then clearing and mostly cloudy. High 56, Low 34
Sunday – Rain all day, High 51, Low 39
TWC: Tomorrow – Light rain early. A mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon. (early snow), High 58, Low 34
Sunday – Rain likely. Potential for heavy rainfall, High 49, Low 42
AW: Tomorrow – A passing morning shower; otherwise, mostly cloudy and not as cool (Early snow) High 58, Low 34
Sunday – Rain High 50, Low 40
NWS: Tomorrow – Rain, mainly before 1pm High 56, Low 38
Sunday – Rain, mainly after 7am. The rain could be heavy at times. High 53, Low 42
WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and freezing rain likely in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated rain showers in the afternoon. High 54, Low 36
Sunday – Rain, High 48, Low 41
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 57, Low 34
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 53, Low 40
FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain until afternoon. High 57, Low 34
Sunday – Rain throughout the day. High 53, Low 40
It looks pretty rainy in and around Cumberland this weekend. At least we are all used to being indoors by now, right? Here is the rain right now. Not showing much in Cumberland, but that is probably an effect of the mountains in western Maryland.
