Elkhart, Indiana

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There are several medium sized towns in northern Indiana, even as you get east of Chicagoland. We have four along the I-80/90 corridor in our forecast pool, Michigan City, South Bend, Goshen and today’s site, Elkhart.

-At 1215PM, ET, Elkhart was reporting a temperature of 45 degrees with light rain. Rain was more widespread in Michigan, and just nosing into northern Indiana, with showers reported in South Bend, but not Goshen. This is associated with a broad area of low pressure in western Quebec, drifting to the north. The lingering shower activity will continue through the day as the system breaks down, and it will remain cool through the day.
A narrow ridge is going to be pushing the light rain out of the region, and will anchor in place for the remainder of the work week. The ridge will provide a bit of a warm up, but not dramatic. The jet associated with the upper level ridge will be local, which will lead to some clouds at the mid and upper levels, along with some persistent low clouds associated with todays event. It will be a bit warmer, with a little bit of sun on Friday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 49, Low 44
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 51, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers in the morning, then cloudy in the afternoon. High 49, Low 42
Friday – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing. High 52, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and some clouds with a couple of showers; breezy and chilly High 48, low 43
Friday – Mostly sunny High 51, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 51, low 43
Friday – Mostly sunny (Rain through 2am), High 54, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy through 4 pm then becoming partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers. High 46, Low 42
Friday – Partly cloudy through 4 pm then clearing (Rain through 2am). High 51, Low 38

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light showers likely, High 50, Low 43
Friday – Partly cloudy with showers, High 54, Low 38

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain Showers, High 47, Low 40
Friday – Light rain showers, High 50, low 37

I’m not sure why so many of my compatriots are calling for rain in Elkhart. I would be surprised if it lasts the day, let alone the week. Here, take a look.

Portland prepares

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Back before my vacation, at the beginning of October, we looked at Portland, which was readying for a cool down and the advance of an autumnal area of low pressure coming out of the Gulf of Alaska. The rain never arrived, and wasn’t expected to, before the forecast period expired. Temperatures did cool off by 20 degrees, though, a jarring first taste of autumn for the Pacific Northwest. It is odd to think that the high temperatures that Portland ended up at are still 20 degrees warmer than I’m at Victoria-Weather HQ right now. Perhaps as a consolation, we can acknowledge that V-W earned the victory with some room to spare.
Actuals: October 7th, High 79, Low 50
October 8th, High 60, Low 52

Grade: A-C

Updates 10/21

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9:55PM: At long last, we are back in action! The trend has been towards cool weather across the country. It’s in the 40s for highs along the northern tier, and if it isn’t down there yet, it will be soon. A particularly effective cold front is coming for New England. Even without prodigious rain, it will bring temperatures down to something more autumnal. Sorry!

11:06PM: Just think, in a few weeks, this would all be snow. Well, actually not. All these light radar returns are actually upwind from the Great Lakes, which, as any local might be able to tell you, is not how Lake Effect Snow works.

September Forecaster of the Month

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You may not remember this, because of the way the month ended, but it was a pretty cool month, running afoul of global trends for, I don’t know, a century, now? Standing in those headwinds, our forecasters needed to be particularly sure of what they were putting out there. Accuweather and Clime won co-shares of September’s title.

Outlet Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel 9.08
National Weather Service 6.91
Accuweather 6.5
Clime 4.75
Victoria-Weather 3.83
Weatherbug 3
WeatherNation 2.91

A quiet Gulf is a happy Gulf.

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A lot of the conversation along the Gulf Coast this spring has involved varying degrees of the sentiment “Wow, it sure has been quiet!” And so it was when we forecast in Gulfport to round out September. The forecasts across the board lined up with the temperatures, which hit close to 90 in the afternoons. The Weather Channel was the top performer, but everyone should be happy with their score.
Actuals: September 29th, High 89, Low 70
September 30th, High 90, Low 70

Grade: A-B

Portland, Oregon to Dover, Delaware

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Confirmed: It is a long way from Portland to Dover. 2892 miles, in fact, and that distance will take us 5 days to cover, and that last day will be an 11 hour grind. The pace will be 67.2 mph, which translates to 538 miles a day. This is a long one, folks.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Portland, Oregon

Low pressure will have moved inland from the Pacific Northwest as we depart tomorrow morning. Moisture will be able to clear the Cascades, but will begin to squeeze out moisture again as this instability reaches the Rockies. Rain will be tapering, but still possible in Portland to the Dalles, and we will be dry in the Columbia River Gorge. We will pop out again and head southeast towards Boise, where we will encounter a few more showers between Pendleton and Baker City. The higher terrain of Idaho is both well to the north of our route and well to the east. We will reach Wendell, between Mountain Home and Twin Falls, without fear of rain.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
Precipitation in the mountains always looks messy, but there is expected to be organization in the lee of the Rockies, which will clear the skies along our route. No worries crossing the Wasatch, except for running out of gas. Not many places to stop, and we will end the night in Table Rock, Wyoming, which might not be a real place.

DAY THREE (Monday)
This is going to be a weird point to refer to, but back in the Gulf of California, an old tropical feature will be making landfall, kicking some moisture from the south up into the Rockies. Some of this moisture is expected to bleed into the Plains, where it will intercept the tail of a cold front extending from Hudson Bay, and it may bring a light shower to south central Nebraska. That is a worst case scenario, though, and I don’t believe it likely. I think instead we will get some windswept prairie and a chilly time parking in Gibbon, for our stop on Monday night.

DAY FOUR (Tuesday)
This wasn’t on my bingo board, but yes, on this trip we will be dealing with some tropical moisture in Nebraska on Tuesday. Rain should be starting overnight in Gibbon, which is near Kearney, if you were wondering, and may be steady at times, all the way to Omaha, which will be the largest city we will have seen in days. The rain will lighten, and we will dry out around Bondurant, shortly after passing Des Moines. Cedar Rapids and the Quad Cities will be dry, and we will make it about a third of the way through Illinois, stopping in Spring Valley for the night.

DAY FIVE (Wednesday)
Because of the way this works we will touch parts of 7 states in 11 long hours. Fortunately, we should have unobstructed views of all those welcome signs, because high pressure will be building in the Great Lakes, pushing towards the mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will be comfortable for the season, and we will be exhausted upon arriving in Dover.

Dover, Delaware

Dover, Delaware

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There isn’t a lot too Delaware, but given the location along the coast, it can sure serve up some interesting times.

At 315PM, ET, Dover was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with overcast skies. High pressure remains in control this afternoon in the Delmarva, however a deep cutting trough swinging out of the Great lakes towards an already unsettled region in the Bight of Georgia is going to bring about some significant changes for the weekend.
The developing low, which may ultimately get a name from the NHC, but even if it doesn’t, it should be a very early season Nor’Easter for the coast. The initial spots of rain will arrive in Dover tomorrow morning, with the threat steadily increasing through the day. The strongest band of heavy rain projects to arrive on Sunday morning. This will likely be accompanied by some blustery winds and make for a wholly uncomfortable morning. The heavy rain will begin to taper in the early afternoon, but more light rain will continue through the remainder of the day.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, High 72, Low 58
Sunday – Rain with wind, tapering a bit in the evening, High 67, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 71, Low 55
Sunday – Rain and wind. High 66, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with occasional rain and drizzle high 70, Low 57
Sunday – Rain and wind from tropical rainstorm; flooding in poor drainage areas; stronger wind and worse flooding at the beaches High 65, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of rain, mainly after 9am. Mostly cloudy, High 70, Low 55
Sunday – Rain, High 66, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. High 69, Low 56
Sunday – Rain windy .High 67, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers, High 70, Low 54
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with showers, High 67, low 61

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers High 69, low 58
Sunday – Light rain showers High 67, Low 60

Yuck. That’s going to be particularly nasty on Sunday. Don’t be surprised if there is a rumble or two with the heavy rain on Sunday. Looks good right now in the interior east!

And you say this is September?

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When forecasting temperatures in the upper 80s, you wouldn’t be surprised, I imagine, to see those show up in Iowa. You would, however, be surprised to have them show up on the cusp of October, as they did in Davenport on the 28th and 29th of the month. it wasn’t a true surprise, of course, as this was well handled by the meteorologists. In fact, the biggest area of error was in the low temperature forecasts. The skies were too clear, and temperatures fell off more than anyone had in the forecast. Accuweather had the top spot in the Quad Cities,
Actuals: September 28th, High 88, Low 56
September 29th, High 89, Low 52

Grade: A-C