Killeen, Texas

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We are off, well, not too far from where we had our last forecast. The weather is getting warm, and remaining interesting in Texas, so let’s what that means in Killeen.

At 933AM, CT, Killeen was reporting overcast skies and a temperature of 70 degrees. Rain has finally shifted out of the area this morning, though the back end of an area of rain extended from Palestine to Austin, and was rotating away from the region. There were flood advisories just to the north, including Waco after another round of heavy rain. Fortunately, this complex of storms is being ushered along by a cool front that is being trailed by dry, stable air.
After the rain shower activity dissipates through the early afternoon in east Texas, a nose of high pressure will build in through the Lone Star State. Moisture will be squashed towards the Gulf Coast, and Thursday looks like it may even be tolerable. Low pressure will quickly reemerge in the Colorado Rockies, however, with moisture reentering the picture from the Gulf. Another humid day will be on the way.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 72
Friday – Partly cloudy and more humid, high 95, low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny.  High 97, Low 71
Friday – Sunny. High 98, Low 74

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and humid High 93, Low 74
Friday – Very warm with sunshine and some clouds High 95, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 95, Low 73
Friday – Sunny, High 95, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94, Low 77
Friday – Sunny, High 96, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 73
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 72

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 73
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 95, Low 74

The Weather Channel is really buying into a scorching end to the week. Let’s see if they are a bit on the aggressive side. Here is he radar imagery of rain moving on out of town.

A no frills cool down

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Temperatures cooled over our forecast period last week in Bend, and with that kind of a cool down, one might expect some showers or storms to go along with it. There were some, even some noted as being nearby last Tuesday, but nothing that actually fell in town, because Bend is in the rain shadow of the Cascades. It gets colder with cold fronts without the mess of a shower or thunderstorm! Victoria-Weather narrowly edged others in this forecast to earn victory.
Actuals: Monday – High 82, Low 43
Tuesday – High 68, Low 45

Grade: B-C

Houston, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Most of Texas has seen rough weather this summer, including Houston and the Metroplex. Houston’s came early on in the season, when hundreds of thousands of local residents lost power, and 4 were killed when a squall line moved through the region on May 16th. Now, the heat is building in the south, and surely, that will be story moving forward. Right?

At 453PM, CT, Houston was reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with clear skies. Severe weather was forecast from border to border thanks to a broad lee trough sneaking into the Plains from the Rockies. This evening, there are showers and storms as far southeast as a line from Livingston to Hunstville, but these are fueled by moisture from the Gulf streaming into the area of low pressure.
The trough is going to inspire an array of individual short waved lows, including one in north Texas. Tomorrow, showers and storms will remain closely tied to the rotation in northern Texas, which will allow a dry day along the Gulf Coast. The vorticity maximum moving through the south central US won’t be enough to bring rain fall all the way to Houston on Tuesday, but the moisture will lead to morning for and haze before sunrise.
Tomorrow – Sunny and humid, High 92, Low 78
Tuesday – Morning fog and haze 93, Low 79

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible.  High 90, Low 78
Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 91, Low 79

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; patchy fog in the morning and humid, then becoming breezy High 91, Low 78
Tuesday – Partly sunny, windy and humid High 91, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 10am and 11am. Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 78
Tuesday – Partly sunny, High 92, Low 79

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. High 91, Low 81
Tuesday – Partly sunny, High 92, Low 80

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers and isolated storms, High 88, Low 79
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 89, Low 80

CLI: Tomorrow – Drizzle, High 90, Low 77
Tuesday – Light rain showers, High 90, Low 77

ABC news in Houston uses Accuweather. Let’s let them put some words behind their forecast, shall we?

Being wrong, and making it interesting

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

A thing that I often forget when forecasting in Cleveland, is that their official statistics are measured at Burke Lakefront Airport, and not Cleveland International. This makes a difference! Being by the lakeshore, especially earlier in the year, can keep temperatures cooler than they do further away from the Lake, and I was kicking myself as I came away from the forecast. I should have had lower temperatures! Imagine my surprise when everyone was at least 5 degrees off on the low temperature forecasts on both the 20th and 21st. The scores were all ultimately in the same ball park, so the real separator was Accuweather keeping Cleveland dry for the entire 48 hours, which didn’t seem right to anyone else, but alas, Accuweather blazed their own, victorious trail.
Actuals: May 20th, High 89, Low 72
May 21st, High 86, Low 76

Grade: C-D