I’m… stunned
Posted by Ryan
So, a few days back when we were forecasting for Santa Cruz, I noted how unusual the Weatherbug forecast seemed. It didn't seem quite right. For example, their highs were 85 and 90, when the average from other outlets was 75 for both days. Of course, their text forecast was in line with everyone else's, but the graphical forecast was not. The highs ended up being 82 and 91. The marine layer didn't come in, and it heated way up in Santa Cruz. Weatherbug was right, even if it was an accident. Of course, their lows were still dreadful, and though they had the top forecast, it was only just barely.
Actuals: Sunday, High 82, Low 50
Monday - High 91, Low 53
Grade: D
Santa Cruz, California
Posted by Ryan
We haven't been to the west coast in a very long time. What's going on in Santa Cruz?
At 753AM, PT, Santa Cruz was seeing a temperature of 57 degrees with overcast skies. Monterey Bay had drawn low clouds, which are pooling along the shores of the bay and was very well evidenced on satellite.
A strong jet north of Washington will help influence the overall flow for the West Coast, and the marine layer will continue to emerge every night in Santa Cruz.
Tomorrow - Morning fog, clouds, with some sun in the late afternoon, High 74, Low 52
Monday - More sun, but still early clouds and fog, High 77, Low 54
TWC: Tomorrow - Generally sunny High 77, Low 52
Monday - Abundant sunshine High 80, Low 54
AW: Tomorrow - Areas of low clouds early; otherwise, mostly sunny High 73, Low 51
Monday - Areas of low clouds early, then mostly sunny High 76, Low 54
NWS: - Areas of low clouds early, then mostly sunny High 69, Low 54
Monday - Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny High 70, Low 53
WB: Tomorrow - Cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. High 84, Low 58
Monday - Cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. High 90, Low 65
I think there might be something wrong with the algorithm at Weatherbug. Those were not typos. The text forecast seems to be right, but the forecast is drawn from the numbers, if possible. This is a cool satellite, showing the low clouds snuggled into Monterey Bay.
Springfield, Illinois to Santa Cruz, California
Posted by Ryan
Why is it most of the road trips I write involve California? I know I lived there for 5 years, and twice as long as that in Illinois actually, but still. Oh well, with nice weather covering the western 2/3 of the country the beautiful weather here in the Twin Cities always makes us feel like we're enjoying a piece of what CA gets nearly year round. Today's trip will cover 4 days and 2,102 miles. Off we go!
DAY ONE
The tail end of a cold front will pass north of Springfield during the early morning hours, so outside of a few clouds perhaps, it should be a dry start to the day as we head west out of Central IL. Two words are going to be very popular during this road trip.... High Pressure. A large dome of it is shifting into the Central Plains, making for mostly sunny skies and dry weather as we travel though Northern Missouri to Lincoln, NE, and further westward to Grand Island, our stop for the 1st night.
DAY TWO
Well, nothing much to speak of today, weather-wise that is. The dome of high pressure continues to assert itself over the Central US, so nothing but pleasant conditions will be experienced for the trip west into Wyoming where we went the day at Rawlins. Unless of course, you forgot your sunglasses in Grand Island. Then all that squinting might get annoying.
DAY THREE
More sun, different day. As we delve further into the weekend, our old high pressure continue to squish any chances of precip along our route. Some afternoon thunderstorms are possible over portions of the Four Corners and Desert Southwest, but most of that activity will be isolated and well south of our route through Salt Lake City westward into NV where we end our day in Elko.
DAY FOUR
The coast is in our sights! The large ridge of high pressure that caused the Southwest to absolutely roast earlier this week (including an all-time record high in Los Angeles at 113 degrees) continues to control the Western US. What does that mean for the final day of our road trip? Severe thunderstorms! Massive tornadoes! Nah, nothing like that. Just make sure the car's AC is working well as we make our way through the Sierra Nevada and into CA's Central Valley by rolling through Sacramento towards San Francisco, and finally into Santa Cruz. Surfs up!
Monterey Bay Victory
Posted by Ryan
Anthony came back from vacation and immediately forecast for Santa Cruz, right in the state he had recently departed from. He certainly knew what he was doing, as he ended up with the top forecast for the city. There was a small dose of light rain showers on Thursday, but Santa Cruz ended up with a pleasant couple of days in the weather department. (Accuweather tied for the top spot, BTW)
Actuals: Thursday - Trace of rain, High 60, Low 44
Friday -High 63, Low 40
Grade: A
Allentown, Pennsylvania to Santa Cruz, California
Posted by Anthony
Yup, a grueling 2906mile cross-country trip that'll take 6 days. Best get on our way...
Day 1
Clouds will be streaming over Allentown early in the day as a warm front slowly lifts its way towards the Southern Great Lakes. The first half of the trip should be fairly benign with clouds thickening and lowering, however, light rain showers will begin to show themselves by early afternoon. As we make our way into Ohio and head towards Cleveland, some moderate rains will be possible as the main area of low pressure that's affecting the region passes off to our south. No thunderstorms are expected for us, as those will remain a decent distance towards the south. We will need to make sure the windshield wipers are in working order though as we finish off the day making our way towards Toledo, the stop for our first night. A few light rain showers will still be possible in late evening, but will continue to dwindle overnight as the system presses eastward.
DAY TWO
Dry weather greets us as we wake up for our next leg of our trip, but will be markedly cooler with morning lows in the upper 20s with high pressure starting to build in during the morning. Mostly sunny skies are expected as we trek into northern Indiana with temps warming into the 40s by midday. Today should be a fairly non-descript day as we continue past the south side of Chicago and towards the Quad Cities. Southerly winds might pick up some towards the latter pary of the day as we make our way to Des Moines, our stop for the day, as another system starts taking shape over the Southern Plains.
DAY THREE
As an area of low pressure ejects into the Southern Plains, the winds could kick up a lil bit during the morning hours as we hop back onto the I-80 and continue our westward march through the Plains. Some light rain is possible during the morning as the low pressure makes its way fully into the Plains, but will increase to a possibly heavier steady rain as we continue west on I-80 through Omaha and through the Cornhusker State. Rain will start to lighten up as we cruise past North Platte and pretty much end as we make our way past Ogallala. Clouds will continue to linger over the area as we make our way to Sidney, NE, the halfway point of our journey.
DAY FOUR
By now the kids are getting restless as the batteries in the Gamy Boy gets low, but soon they'll have something to keep them entertained, mountains! The topography that we've been lacking the last couple of days will show up almost immediately as we make our way into Wyoming and past Cheyenne. High pressure will be moving over much of the Rockies today, so aside from some lingering low clouds early in the day that'll burn off, just some mostly high clouds will dim the sun from time to time as our exploration of I-80 continues. Again, today should be a fairly non-descript day as we wind our way into the Rockies and finish our day at Salt Lake City. Who's up for a swim!?
DAY FIVE
A large trough is going to start moving its' way towards the West Coast, so clouds will be on the increase as we make our way out of Utah and wind our way through Northern Nevada. The view should still be entertaining and clouds will remain high as the thicker ones haven't quite been able to push over the Sierra Nevada just yet. A couple of isolated showers are possible during the early afternoon north of Battle Mountain and Winnemucca, but our afternoon should continue on the dry side. A couple of stray showers might be able to make their way over the mountains and into Reno as we finish our day, but most of that action should be moving in overnight.
DAY SIX
We finish our exploration, and our trip, today as we make our way up into the Sierra Nevada towards Truckee, CA. Most of the heavier rains will have happened during the overnight, and begin to lighten during the morning hours. It'll be slow going during the morning with the wet roads and steep grades, but luckily today's trek is not nearly as long as the rest of the trip. Conditions will dry out as the bulk of the system pushes into the Northern Rockies. A few lingering upslope showers are possible as we head out of the Tahoe National Forest, but for the most part the rest of the day should be on the dry side. Some low clouds will continue to linger over the area as another system will move in towards the overnight hours, but the rest of the drive into Santa Cruz should by dry, but cloudy. Finally, we've arrived at the Pacific Ocean! And we didn't even need to ford a river.
Santa Cruz, California
Posted by Anthony
As Ryan mentioned earlier, i'm covering the forecast and road trip updates today. They're getting up a little late tonight however, as I encountered something even more difficult to predict on my way back from my CA vacation... airplane delays! Nothing like a 4 hour delay to brighten your day. However, off we go to Santa Cruz. Interesting how my vacation was bookended with forecasts for CA cities.
At 933pm PDT, the temperature was 54degrees with cloudy skies. A cold front is starting to push its' way through Northern California, with the main low remaining off the coastline of the Pacific Northwest. Some showers are swinging through the San Francisco area ahead of the front, with a few lighter ones lingering behind. Once this band pushes through, conditions should be fairly dry for the remainder of the day, however some clouds should continue to linger through mid-morning. Some sun should break though for the afternoon and evening hours, making for a relatively decent day, albeit a bit on the breezy side. A second disturbance is looking to rotate it's way through northern CA as well late Thursday into early Friday. Clouds are expected as it moves through, but light shower activity should remain off to the north. When Friday morning comes around, most of the low pressure trough should be building towards the Four Corners region with high pressure reasserting itself along the CA coastline. This means mostly sunny skies to kick off the weekend, with less wind than Thursday.
Thursday: A few early AM showers, then mostly cloudy. High 60, Low 46.
Friday: Clouds decreasing through day, mostly sunny by afternoon. High 65, Low 41.
TWC: Thursday: Slight chance of morning shower. High 61, Low 46.
Friday: Sunny. High 64, Low 42.
AW: Thursday: Possible AM shower, then breezy. High 60, Low 47.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 62, Low 41.
NWS: Thursday: Early AM shower. High 62, Low 44.
Friday: Sunny. High 65, Low 42.
WB: Thursday: Chance of light rain. High 59, Low 42.
Friday: Another chance of light morning rain, then clearing. High 60, Low 40.
Here we see the rain showers moving through the Bay Area. How long will they stick around this morning?
