Tag Archives: Providence

A late fall temperature surge

The thing about advancing cold fronts is that sometimes, they don’t end  long spells of hot weather.  Sometimes, warm air is pulled further north due to the same circulation that is producing the cold front, which means, essentially, you couldn’t have the warm air without the cold front. Whoa. So that’s what happened in Providence this week, and was extremely efficient. After our forecast valid period, a little wave was moving through Canada, cut off from any moisture, still efficiently tugged a great deal of warmth north. It was almost 60 degrees on Tuesday, a spike in temperature over the 43 degrees on Monday. Accuweather and Forecast.io were the unlikely duo who had the best forecast on this day.
Actuals: Monday – High 43, Low 35
Tuesday – High 59, Low 36

Grade: A-C

Lincoln, Nebraska to Providence, Rhode Island

All right, let’s take a road trip, shall we? We’re headed towards New England, on a 3 day road trip, though that third day will be a bit shorter than the first two days. It’s a 1,480 mile trip, which we will lope across at a pace of 67.4mph, which will set a goal of 539 miles per day.  This route takes us right over the (Mississippi) River and through some woods, so to Grandmother’s House (In Providence) we go!

DAY ONE (Monday)
This should be one of the more active times of year, but as we get going Monday morning, there is a very summer like pattern setting up. Oh, it’s definitely late autumn, the thermometer doesn’t lie. What is summer like is the big old swath of the country with almost nothing going on. Of course, it’s not the big omega blocking jet pattern – quite the opposite, actually, with a couple of troughs interfering with one another. Still, the effect is the same, as tranquil conditions are expected across the Upper Midwest on Monday, with temperatures much warmer than they are today. We’ll make it through Illinois, and call it a day in Hobart, Indiana, just south of Lake Michigan.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
There is a wave scooting through Canada, giving the perception of a dome of high pressure dominating the heartland. This perception will be betrayed when the system reaches the north end of the Great Lakes. The associated cold front will hook up with that lake moisture and supply a little bit of snow east of Michigan and Erie. We should have no problem outpacing the burst of snow while we are in motion, but when we stop in Le Roy, New York, southwest of Rochester, the boundary will catch up to us. Don’t be surprised to find a thin dusting of snow on our car on Wednesday morning.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
As that Canadian low starts to move poleward, it will hook up with a big swath of moisture moving through the Gulf stream. Our drive across the Hudson and into New England will be dry, however the coast will be rainy for much of the day. Because of our pace, we might get to Providence before the clouds and rain leave town, but when it does, the sun will be soon to follow. Oh, it won’t be warm or anything, but the sun will definitely be out.

Providence, Rhode Island

Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High High 41, Low 32
Tuesday – Sunny, High 55, Low 36

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds.  High 43, Low 32
Tuesday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon.High 57, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cooler High 43, Low 32
Tuesday – Warmer with sunshine and patchy clouds High 58, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny,  High 42, Low 31
Tuesday – Sunny,  High 59, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 39, Low 31
Tuesday – Sunny. High 54, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 41, Low 31
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 56, low 35

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until night. High 42, Low 35
Tuesday – Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 57, Low 38

Weather Wayback: Regressing to the mean

Shortly after Thanksgiving, Anthony took a look at Providence, Rhode Island, which was coming out of a mostly cloudy Saturday, and was finishing off with high pressure working back into the region. There was some expectation for some very chilly temperatures would plummet thanks to the clear skies, handicapping the ability to warm up. In fact it did warm up, reaching 48 on Sunday and 50 on Monday. You know what the average high is that time of year? 49. It just bounced back to normal. The Weather Channel had the top forecast, thanks to having the warmest numbers of anyone, and a perfect forecast for Monday morning.
Actuals: November 27th – High 48, Low 33
November 28th, HIgh 50, Low 30

Grade: B-D

Providence, Rhode Island to Mount Vernon, Washington

This drive is going to be quite lengthy as we head from the East Coast to the West. It will take nearly 6 full days to cover 3,091 miles. We’ll see a great deal of the northern US as we track along at a pace of 67.2mph. The 6th day will be shorter than the first 5, with the first days averaging 537.6 miles. This is a time of year where a drive through this part of the country can be pretty rough, so let’s hope for some good luck.

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

The beginning of our long journey will take us from Providence to western Pennsylvania. There is an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Maine, and a trailer is going to develop overnight over Lake Ontario. It will do a good job of cleaning up the coastal area, though there will be some clouds thanks to a light onshore flow. A weak cold front associated with the system will produce a west wind and some snow showers on the western exposures of the Pennsylvania Appalachians. The best chance of snow will be for the last hour of the day, from Dubois to Grove City, where we will stop for the night, right across the border from Ohio.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
We will be post frontal on Thursday as we head through the southern Great Lakes. There will be a westerly flow through the region, so lake effect snow will be ongoing in Michigan and just across the border, in northern Indiana and Ohio. After we have passed the Goshen, Indiana area, we will see a change. The sun will come out, and while it will be quite chilly, the threat for precipitation will end as well. We’ll make it all the way to Wisconsin, just across the border from Illinois in Beloit.

DAY THREE (Friday)
High pressure will remain over the Upper Midwest. A warm front may produce some snow showers over southwestern Minnesota, but we will manage to stay north of this swath. We’ll make it to Moorhead, just across the Red River from Fargo, without any real worries.

DAY FOUR (Saturday)
The whole time we spend driving through the eastern US, another monster of a system will be organizing out west. The leading edge of this system will emanate a wave of showers, both rain and snow, that will reach the eastern Dakotas by the time we get going on Saturday. We’ll see a bit of a mix from Fargo to Bismarck, with some clearing over the western part of the state into Montana. There will be some clouds, but more importantly, it will be unseasonably warm. We’ll stop in Saunders, Montana, in the eastern part of the state.

DAY FIVE (Sunday)
The low will continue to churn in the Great Basin, and it will come to bear in the northern Rockies. We will encounter the first bouts of snow between Butte and Missoula, and from Missoula to Stull, just across the state line into Idaho, we will really get slammed. This looks like the type of snow that could lead to a road closure, particularly in the twisting terrain of the northern Rockies. Precipitation will be very heavy, and winds will be picking up through the valleys. Let’s try to make it to Stull, and hope that Monday will be better.

DAY SIX (Monday)
Low pressure over the Olympic Peninsula will help usher the heavy snow out of the Idaho Chimney. Not all of it, but some. There will be a few flakes through Couer d’Alene, but in the Cascade rain shadow, we will enjoy our last bit of dry pavement. In the Cascades, light surface precipitation will be preceded by some heavier snow in the mountains. Ah, well, it will be cloudy with some light rain in Mount Vernon. It’s not the Puget Sound without a little bit of dinginess?

Providence, Rhode Island

Off we go to one of the smallest states in the USA, Rhode Island! Let’s see how their holiday weekend is going to finish!

At 151am EST, the temperature was 38 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. High pressure is slowly shifting over the area and will bring dry weather for the remainder of the holiday weekend. Temperatures will be a bit cooler Monday morning as skies will be clear overnight, causing temps to drop a bit more than Sunday morning. A decent start to the week before another system moves in on Tuesday!

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 46, Low 34.
Monday: Sunny. High 45, Low 28.

TWC: Sunday: Sunny. High 47, Low 35.
Monday: Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 47, Low 30.

AW: Sunday: Breezy with variable clouds. High 47, Low 36.
Monday: Sunny to partly cloudy. High 47, Low 29.

NWS: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 44, Low 35.
Monday: Sunny. High 44, Low 28.

WB: Sunday: Sunny. High 43, Low 36.
Monday: Sunny. High 42, Low 29.

WN: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 45, Low 32.
Monday: Sunny. High 45, Low 28.

FIO: Sunday: Partly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 44, Low 34.
Monday: Clear throughout the day. High 44, Low 29.

Here we see a large system shifting out of the New England area, with a rather large area of calm weather moving in behind it.


Fond du Lac, Wisconsin to Providence, Rhode Island

Today we embark on a 2-day road trip from Fond du Lac, WI to the capital of the country’s smallest state, Providence. 1,122 miles separate the two, so off we go!

Fond du Lac


High pressure sitting over the Great Lakes is keeping much of the region quiet today, however some morning showers/thunderstorms could be approaching our departure point as a warm front is lifting through MN/northwest WI. We should be able to avoid most of it as we drive southward past Milwaukee and eventually through Chicago. From there, the jaunt eastward will be fairly quiet, with perhaps just an early afternoon shower over northern IN. We should be able to dodge those, however, and dry weather greets us throughout Ohio, where we finish the night in Youngstown.


High pressure is found throughout the Eastern Great Lakes and the Northeast, keeping conditions dry for our entire day as we make our way through PA, northern NJ, and eventually along the Long Island Sound before pulling into Providence.


Sandy slammed Providence

In Providence, winds started gusting over 50mph around 230 in the afternoon, climbing up to a maximum of 59mph around 5 that evening. It wasn’t as strong as it was in New York, Connecticut or New Jersey, or even coastal Rhode Island, but much of Providence has lost power. The closest temperature forecasts belonged to Victoria Weather and Accuweather, but I think on the whole, meteorologists everywhere were worth listening to (even if temperatures were a few degrees off). This is one of the worst weather disasters to hit the United States this century, perhaps short only Katrina in 2005. Meteorologists, however, proved our worth.
Actuals: Monday – .76 inches of rain, High 67, Low 53
Tuesday – .58 inches of rain, High 68, Low 53

Grade: C

Lake Havasu City, Arizona to Providence, Rhode Island

Our trip is going to take a week. Well, a work week, and we will get to Providence on Saturday. For our 5 days, we will cover 2731 miles at a 65mph pace. That pace will be thanks to some fast roads out west, and we will cover 520.5 miles a day. What will Sandy wreak across the northeast? We will find out.


The weather map will look pretty ominous, and it will be ominous… but only for the east coast. In the southwest, things will be in pretty great shape. Temperatures, humidity and cloud cover will all be accommodating, and it should be an easy drive to Albuquerque, the destination for day one.

If there is any advantage to Sandy at all, it will be for travelers in the western US. There won’t be any significant weather between Albuquerque and El Reno, Oklahoma, destination number 2 on our trip, just as there wasn’t on day 1. The exciting stuff is yet to come.

Wednesday will be another good day for driving. Our trip will take us through Tulsa and most of Missouri, before we call it a day in Mehlville, on the south side of St. Louis. This joy ride will probably come to an end on Thursday though. (Oh, also, happy Halloween!)

It will be cloudy most of the day as we move through Illinois, which is fine. After we hit Indiana, though, flurries will start to fall. A steadier snowfall will pick up, big wet flakes by the time we reach Indianapolis. The snow will continue in a light, but steady pattern through Ohio. This being the first snow of the year, it will likely be more impactful than a similar snow would be later in the season. Careful navigating Columbus. The day ends in West Salem, Ohio, which is between Mansfield and Akron.

Our fifth day of travel could be a hair treacherous. There will still be flakes flying in western Pennsylvania, though the real mess will be with the snow that will follow during the week. There are parts of the Appalachians that will get 2 feet of snow out of Sandy. That total is very high for Pennsylvania, but there will be significant snow, and given the wind, tree and power line damage may be the clean up priority, rather than snow, meaning the roads could still be a bit slick. When we get out of the Appalachians, around Hazelton, we’ll be able to see the real damage that Sandy has leveled upon the east. The worst of Sandy will afflict our route over eastern PA and downstate New York. It will be a bit dicey in Connecticut and Rhode Island, but nothing like the previously mentioned areas. Providence will be clear and much, much calmer than they are today and will be through the beginning of the week.