Winning despite ourselves
Posted by Ryan
The system that has been making news (including a strong tornado in Merrill Wisconsin, yesterday) also had a warm front that developed a little further south than we had in the forecast. It brought a splash of rain, but also a stronger, warmer southerly flow on Sunday, which brought warmer temperatures in Providence than had been expected. The associated cold front also moved slower than expected, which meant it didn't rain like we all thought it would yesterday. Somehow, despite missing both precipitation forecasts in Providence, Victoria-Weather still managed to have the top forecast, thanks in no small part to everyone's insistence that the low on Sunday morning wouldn't drop off.
Actuals: Sunday - Trace of rain, High 66, Low 31
Monday - High 62, Low 46
Grade D
Providence, Rhode Island
Posted by Ryan
Hey, we're almost all caught up! Just this post and we are back online!
At 1151PM, ET, Providence was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with clear skies. While they found themselves well north of a cold air dammed warm front in the Mid Atlantic, a massive system was developing over the center of the country that will allow the warm front to phase out and redevelop to the north of Providence within the next 24 hours.
The system will pump in some warm air for the end of the weekend, but will keep the city relatively dry. A stout southerly flow due to the rotation of the system will likely bring in some clouds and maybe a spot of drizzle on Monday and keep temperatures down a degree or two, but won't bring terrible weather to town.
Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 29
Monday - Cloudy with a chance of light rain, High 60, Low 48
TWC: Tomorrow - Cloudy skies High 57, Low 37
Monday - Partly cloudy with a stray thunderstorm High 63, Low 48
AW: Tomorrow - Considerable cloudiness with a little rain in the afternoon High 58, Low 384
Monday - Warmer with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 71, Low 45
NWS: A chance of showers, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny High 59, Low 35
Monday - A chance of showers before 9am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and noon. Mostly cloudy High 68, Low 46
WB: Tomorrow - Partly sunny. A chance of showers in the afternoon High 60, Low 37
Monday - Mostly cloudy. High 67, Low 46
It appears to me most haven't yet seen what the temperatures are looking like right now. I think it will keep cooling off really quickly until just after sunrise. Satellite shows not many clouds in the area right now.
Dreary, but not too dreary
Posted by Ryan
Providence was unfortunate enough to see some cloudy, drizzly skies the past couple of days, but there was enough sun that broke out yesterday that temperatures climbed about 5 degrees higher than anyone expected. The fact that they saw rain on each of the two days of the forecast period, however, gave Victoria-Weather the top forecast for the largest city in the smallest state.
Actuals: Friday - .08 inches of rain, High 65, Low 49
Saturday - .01 inches of rain, High 73, Low 55
Grade: B
Providence, Rhode Island to Hickory, North Carolina
Posted by Ryan
Late night planning for our day and a half road trip from New England to North Carolina. It cover 821 miles at the snails pace of 59.5mph, which will get us 476 miles on the first day, leaving the rest for a shorter second day. Let's pick up stakes and drive through some megaplexes, OK?
DAY ONE
An occluded front will sweep out of New England by the time we leave, allowing an unexpectedly dry day as we leave town. We shouldn't have any issues, actually, as we make our way south out of town and through the New York area. We'll pass south through Harrisburg and south into Middletown, Virginia with few issues. There could be some chunky looking clouds as we end the day, but we'll end up problem free.
DAY TWO
As we continue south into Virginia and eventually into North Carolina, the threat for thunderstorms will increase as the day goes on. By Roanoke, we'll be dodging showers and storms. Nothing strong in terms of hail or wind, and storms won't last much longer than 15 minutes at a time since we'll be driving through them, but we may have to concern ourselves with heavy rain and some frequent lightning as we hone in on Hickory, but as long as we have some good Aquatreads, I think we'll be OK.
Providence, Rhode Island
Posted by Ryan
Little Rhodey is our destination today. It's a small state, but this is a big forecast! Ok that was bad.
At 751PM, ET, Providence was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A warm front, that has become mostly stationary, lie through the Mid Atlantic, aiding in the generation of the clouds seen in the area. The system generating these boundaries is formed by a jet coupling that is actually at the apex of a ridge, and will likely be deteriorating over the next several hours.
The system will dissipated and occlude as it shifts into New England, leaving the moisture associated with it stagnant and abandoned. Low clouds and light showers will be the story for the next two days in Rhode Island, after the showers associated with the warm front arrive in the early afternoon. Expect only light showers, but continually cloudy skies to begin the weekend.
Tomorrow - Occasional showers, High 64, Low 50
Saturday - Cloudy with drizzle, High 68, Low 55
TWC: Tomorrow- Cloudy with occasional showers. High 62, Low 49
Saturday - A few clouds High 69, Low 53
AW: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around, High 64, Low 47
Saturday - Partly sunny and breezy High 68, Low 51
NWS: Tomorrow - A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Cloudy High 61, Low 49
Saturday - Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 54
WB: Tomorrow - Cloudy. A chance of showers High 61, Low 50
Saturday - Mostly sunny High 69, Low 54
A look at the satellite shows the dying system in the Great Lakes.
