Tag Archives: Providence

Weather Wayback: Regressing to the mean

Shortly after Thanksgiving, Anthony took a look at Providence, Rhode Island, which was coming out of a mostly cloudy Saturday, and was finishing off with high pressure working back into the region. There was some expectation for some very chilly temperatures would plummet thanks to the clear skies, handicapping the ability to warm up. In fact it did warm up, reaching 48 on Sunday and 50 on Monday. You know what the average high is that time of year? 49. It just bounced back to normal. The Weather Channel had the top forecast, thanks to having the warmest numbers of anyone, and a perfect forecast for Monday morning.
Actuals: November 27th – High 48, Low 33
November 28th, HIgh 50, Low 30

Grade: B-D

Providence, Rhode Island to Mount Vernon, Washington

This drive is going to be quite lengthy as we head from the East Coast to the West. It will take nearly 6 full days to cover 3,091 miles. We’ll see a great deal of the northern US as we track along at a pace of 67.2mph. The 6th day will be shorter than the first 5, with the first days averaging 537.6 miles. This is a time of year where a drive through this part of the country can be pretty rough, so let’s hope for some good luck.

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

The beginning of our long journey will take us from Providence to western Pennsylvania. There is an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Maine, and a trailer is going to develop overnight over Lake Ontario. It will do a good job of cleaning up the coastal area, though there will be some clouds thanks to a light onshore flow. A weak cold front associated with the system will produce a west wind and some snow showers on the western exposures of the Pennsylvania Appalachians. The best chance of snow will be for the last hour of the day, from Dubois to Grove City, where we will stop for the night, right across the border from Ohio.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
We will be post frontal on Thursday as we head through the southern Great Lakes. There will be a westerly flow through the region, so lake effect snow will be ongoing in Michigan and just across the border, in northern Indiana and Ohio. After we have passed the Goshen, Indiana area, we will see a change. The sun will come out, and while it will be quite chilly, the threat for precipitation will end as well. We’ll make it all the way to Wisconsin, just across the border from Illinois in Beloit.

DAY THREE (Friday)
High pressure will remain over the Upper Midwest. A warm front may produce some snow showers over southwestern Minnesota, but we will manage to stay north of this swath. We’ll make it to Moorhead, just across the Red River from Fargo, without any real worries.

DAY FOUR (Saturday)
The whole time we spend driving through the eastern US, another monster of a system will be organizing out west. The leading edge of this system will emanate a wave of showers, both rain and snow, that will reach the eastern Dakotas by the time we get going on Saturday. We’ll see a bit of a mix from Fargo to Bismarck, with some clearing over the western part of the state into Montana. There will be some clouds, but more importantly, it will be unseasonably warm. We’ll stop in Saunders, Montana, in the eastern part of the state.

DAY FIVE (Sunday)
The low will continue to churn in the Great Basin, and it will come to bear in the northern Rockies. We will encounter the first bouts of snow between Butte and Missoula, and from Missoula to Stull, just across the state line into Idaho, we will really get slammed. This looks like the type of snow that could lead to a road closure, particularly in the twisting terrain of the northern Rockies. Precipitation will be very heavy, and winds will be picking up through the valleys. Let’s try to make it to Stull, and hope that Monday will be better.

DAY SIX (Monday)
Low pressure over the Olympic Peninsula will help usher the heavy snow out of the Idaho Chimney. Not all of it, but some. There will be a few flakes through Couer d’Alene, but in the Cascade rain shadow, we will enjoy our last bit of dry pavement. In the Cascades, light surface precipitation will be preceded by some heavier snow in the mountains. Ah, well, it will be cloudy with some light rain in Mount Vernon. It’s not the Puget Sound without a little bit of dinginess?

Providence, Rhode Island

Off we go to one of the smallest states in the USA, Rhode Island! Let’s see how their holiday weekend is going to finish!

At 151am EST, the temperature was 38 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. High pressure is slowly shifting over the area and will bring dry weather for the remainder of the holiday weekend. Temperatures will be a bit cooler Monday morning as skies will be clear overnight, causing temps to drop a bit more than Sunday morning. A decent start to the week before another system moves in on Tuesday!

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 46, Low 34.
Monday: Sunny. High 45, Low 28.

TWC: Sunday: Sunny. High 47, Low 35.
Monday: Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 47, Low 30.

AW: Sunday: Breezy with variable clouds. High 47, Low 36.
Monday: Sunny to partly cloudy. High 47, Low 29.

NWS: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 44, Low 35.
Monday: Sunny. High 44, Low 28.

WB: Sunday: Sunny. High 43, Low 36.
Monday: Sunny. High 42, Low 29.

WN: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 45, Low 32.
Monday: Sunny. High 45, Low 28.

FIO: Sunday: Partly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 44, Low 34.
Monday: Clear throughout the day. High 44, Low 29.

Here we see a large system shifting out of the New England area, with a rather large area of calm weather moving in behind it.

pvdsat

Fond du Lac, Wisconsin to Providence, Rhode Island

Today we embark on a 2-day road trip from Fond du Lac, WI to the capital of the country’s smallest state, Providence. 1,122 miles separate the two, so off we go!

Fond du Lac

DAY ONE

High pressure sitting over the Great Lakes is keeping much of the region quiet today, however some morning showers/thunderstorms could be approaching our departure point as a warm front is lifting through MN/northwest WI. We should be able to avoid most of it as we drive southward past Milwaukee and eventually through Chicago. From there, the jaunt eastward will be fairly quiet, with perhaps just an early afternoon shower over northern IN. We should be able to dodge those, however, and dry weather greets us throughout Ohio, where we finish the night in Youngstown.

DAY TWO

High pressure is found throughout the Eastern Great Lakes and the Northeast, keeping conditions dry for our entire day as we make our way through PA, northern NJ, and eventually along the Long Island Sound before pulling into Providence.

Providence

Sandy slammed Providence

In Providence, winds started gusting over 50mph around 230 in the afternoon, climbing up to a maximum of 59mph around 5 that evening. It wasn’t as strong as it was in New York, Connecticut or New Jersey, or even coastal Rhode Island, but much of Providence has lost power. The closest temperature forecasts belonged to Victoria Weather and Accuweather, but I think on the whole, meteorologists everywhere were worth listening to (even if temperatures were a few degrees off). This is one of the worst weather disasters to hit the United States this century, perhaps short only Katrina in 2005. Meteorologists, however, proved our worth.
Actuals: Monday – .76 inches of rain, High 67, Low 53
Tuesday – .58 inches of rain, High 68, Low 53

Grade: C

Lake Havasu City, Arizona to Providence, Rhode Island

Our trip is going to take a week. Well, a work week, and we will get to Providence on Saturday. For our 5 days, we will cover 2731 miles at a 65mph pace. That pace will be thanks to some fast roads out west, and we will cover 520.5 miles a day. What will Sandy wreak across the northeast? We will find out.

DAY ONE

The weather map will look pretty ominous, and it will be ominous… but only for the east coast. In the southwest, things will be in pretty great shape. Temperatures, humidity and cloud cover will all be accommodating, and it should be an easy drive to Albuquerque, the destination for day one.

DAY TWO
If there is any advantage to Sandy at all, it will be for travelers in the western US. There won’t be any significant weather between Albuquerque and El Reno, Oklahoma, destination number 2 on our trip, just as there wasn’t on day 1. The exciting stuff is yet to come.

DAY THREE
Wednesday will be another good day for driving. Our trip will take us through Tulsa and most of Missouri, before we call it a day in Mehlville, on the south side of St. Louis. This joy ride will probably come to an end on Thursday though. (Oh, also, happy Halloween!)

DAY FOUR
It will be cloudy most of the day as we move through Illinois, which is fine. After we hit Indiana, though, flurries will start to fall. A steadier snowfall will pick up, big wet flakes by the time we reach Indianapolis. The snow will continue in a light, but steady pattern through Ohio. This being the first snow of the year, it will likely be more impactful than a similar snow would be later in the season. Careful navigating Columbus. The day ends in West Salem, Ohio, which is between Mansfield and Akron.

DAY FIVE
Our fifth day of travel could be a hair treacherous. There will still be flakes flying in western Pennsylvania, though the real mess will be with the snow that will follow during the week. There are parts of the Appalachians that will get 2 feet of snow out of Sandy. That total is very high for Pennsylvania, but there will be significant snow, and given the wind, tree and power line damage may be the clean up priority, rather than snow, meaning the roads could still be a bit slick. When we get out of the Appalachians, around Hazelton, we’ll be able to see the real damage that Sandy has leveled upon the east. The worst of Sandy will afflict our route over eastern PA and downstate New York. It will be a bit dicey in Connecticut and Rhode Island, but nothing like the previously mentioned areas. Providence will be clear and much, much calmer than they are today and will be through the beginning of the week.

Providence, Rhode Island

Providence is just waiting for Sandy, to see what she will do there. The heaviest impact will be south of Providence, but that doesn’t mean Rhode Island shouldn’t be concerned.

At 1251PM, ET, Providence was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with overcast skies and a stiff northeast breeze gusting to 25mph. There was also rain being reported, though it was, at the time, fairly light. Rain and wind will continue to pick up through the day, but fortunately, Rhode Island should avoid the storm surge that will be a problem further to the west.
Winds and rain will be the greatest Monday evening as Sandy makes a dive towards New Jersey. The heaviest rain, again, will be well south of Rhode Island, but winds of up to 50mph are certainly not out of the question in Providence. Rain will be in the 1-3″ range through Tuesday, with Tuesday a much more tolerable day, as winds abate to the 30mph range.
Tomorrow – Heavy rain, strong, damaging winds, High 63, Low 51
Tuesday – Lighter rain, still breezy, high 69, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain / Wind High 61, Low 51
Thursday – Showers / Wind High 65, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Heavy rain and strong winds from Hurricane Sandy; winds will be locally damaging High 63, Low 52
Thursday – Some rain and wind from Tropical Rainstorm Sandy; winds will be locally damaging High 67, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow -Showers. Patchy fog High 60, Low 50
Thursday – Showers. Patchy fog before 10am. High 63, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Showers. Patchy fog High 60, Low 52
Thursday – Showers. Patchy fog. High 63, Low 55

The hurricane will be bad, but it won’t be terrible in Rhode Island I do enjoy The Weather Service and Weatherbug… masters of understatement. Can you find the hurricane?

Providence, Rhode Island to Cheyenne, Wyoming

It’s a road trip! Or, should I say… a Rhode trip? No, I should not say that. It will take about 4 days to get from Providence to Cheyenne, covering 512 miles a day (or moving at 64mph). The 4th day will be a hair shorter. Let’s leave from one smallest state (in size) to another (in population)


DAY ONE

The massive system setting up in the center of the country is going to play a huge role in this trip. Not on the first day though. It will play a large role, but not huge. The trip through New England into eastern Pennsylvania will be unremarkable. After we hit Lock Haven, PA, however, we will begin to encounter some scattered rain showers, which will carry us on to St. Petersburg, Pennsylvania, which is between Grove City and Clarion.

DAY TWO
We will be in the warm sector for most of the day Sunday, and after a few morning showers in northern Ohio, things will clear out through Indiana. Seasonably warm temperatures will be ours to enjoy. Of course, we will arrive in La Salle, Illinois at about the same time as the nasty squall line. There is a chance for strong winds, hail or even a tornado near La Salle when we arrive.

DAY THREE
It will be a stormy night in La Salle, but we can expect things to clear out and cool off by the time we leave Monday morning. There will be quite a bit of lingering overcast across I-80 west from La Salle. We will dodge a few drops of chilly drizzle, particularly crossing the Mississippi, and in eastern Nebraska. The day will end in Aurora, Nebraska, which is west of Lincoln, but not quite to Grand Island.

DAY FOUR
The final day, Tuesday, will begin and end drearily. There may be some of that persistent overcast in Aurora when we leave, but it won’t last long, and most of the drive through Nebraska will be dull. Weatherwise too. The next round of wet weather will be moving through the northern Rockies on Tuesday, and the initial batch of moisture will be spilling into Cheyenne (as rain) as we are making the final steps in the trip to the capital of Wyoming.

Winning despite ourselves

The system that has been making news (including a strong tornado in Merrill Wisconsin, yesterday) also had a warm front that developed a little further south than we had in the forecast. It brought a splash of rain, but also a stronger, warmer southerly flow on Sunday, which brought warmer temperatures in Providence than had been expected. The associated cold front also moved slower than expected, which meant it didn’t rain like we all thought it would yesterday. Somehow, despite missing both precipitation forecasts in Providence, Victoria-Weather still managed to have the top forecast, thanks in no small part to everyone’s insistence that the low on Sunday morning wouldn’t drop off.
Actuals: Sunday – Trace of rain, High 66, Low 31
Monday – High 62, Low 46

Grade D

Providence, Rhode Island

Hey, we’re almost all caught up! Just this post and we are back online!

At 1151PM, ET, Providence was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with clear skies. While they found themselves well north of a cold air dammed warm front in the Mid Atlantic, a massive system was developing over the center of the country that will allow the warm front to phase out and redevelop to the north of Providence within the next 24 hours.
The system will pump in some warm air for the end of the weekend, but will keep the city relatively dry. A stout southerly flow due to the rotation of the system will likely bring in some clouds and maybe a spot of drizzle on Monday and keep temperatures down a degree or two, but won’t bring terrible weather to town.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 29
Monday – Cloudy with a chance of light rain, High 60, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies High 57, Low 37
Monday – Partly cloudy with a stray thunderstorm High 63, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness with a little rain in the afternoon High 58, Low 384
Monday – Warmer with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 71, Low 45

NWS: A chance of showers, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny High 59, Low 35
Monday – A chance of showers before 9am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and noon. Mostly cloudy High 68, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A chance of showers in the afternoon High 60, Low 37
Monday – Mostly cloudy. High 67, Low 46

It appears to me most haven’t yet seen what the temperatures are looking like right now. I think it will keep cooling off really quickly until just after sunrise. Satellite shows not many clouds in the area right now.