Tag Archives: Poughkeepsie

Catskills keep it dry

A system moving out of the eastern Great Lakes brought some rain and clouds to western New York, but the moisture originated from the Lakes, and didn’t get kicked too high into the atmosphere, which meant that the rain couldn’t transcend the higher terrain of the Catskills and reach Poughkeepsie in downstate New York on Monday. Victoria-Weather was the only outlet to keep rain out of the forecast, but it was  Accuweather’s top notch temperature forecast that allowed them to win the day.
Actuals: Sunday – High 84, Low 59
Monday – High 86, Low 65

Grade: B

Poughkeepsie, New York

I will say this much. It’s very good that this is a written forecast. As difficult as Poughkeepsie is to write, it’s even harder to say. Weather has been a bit dicey out that way recently, but it looks like we are settling into a bit calmer pattern. What are the numbers looking like in Poughkeepsie.

At 353PM, ET, Poughkeepsie was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with overcast skies.  The tail end of a cold front lay between Poughkeepsie and Long Island, with clear skies and oceanic flow over New York and the Hamptons, and cloudy skies up the Hudson Valley. Cooler temperatures, as low as 69 in Binghamton, were seen in western New York. The clouds are not a widespread overcast, but a natural byproduct of the cooler invasion.
Clearer skies will come tomorrow as flow from the northwest dissipates. A weak upper level trough is trailing the present pattern, and will reinforce the stabilizing pattern, with warmer air returning both at the surface and aloft. As the upper level trough approaches, expect some more clouds, but shower activity to hold off west of the Catskills.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 63
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow -Sunny skies. High 86, Low 60
Monday – Partly cloudy in the morning followed by scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon High 85, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 85, Low 60
Monday – Humid with periods of sun and clouds; a shower or thunderstorm later in the afternoon High 84, Low 65

NWS: Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny,  High 88, Low 61
Monday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 87, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning, sunny. High 83, Low 63
Monday – Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Hot, High 82, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 61
Monday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 88, Low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 86, Low 65
Monday – Mostly cloudy starting overnight. High 84, Low 70

Looks like some outlets are a shade more pessimistic about the rain than myself. Here is a look at the satellite, with those fair weather cumulus clouds over New York.

Poughkeepsie, New York to Shreveport, Louisiana

Yet another road trip! What does this family have against flying places?! At least this isn’t a cross-country trip, but will still take 3 days to navigate from southeastern NY to northern LA. Hopefully we avoid the snow this time!


Partly cloudy skies greet us this morning as high pressure sits off the New England coastline. Warm temperatures will greet the Northeast as upper 70s and maybe even some low 80s are possible as we cruise through northern NJ and into eastern PA. We’ll probably see some more clouds in the evening as we push into northern VA as a frontal boundary pushes closer to our route, but it should be a dry day as we finish in Harrisonburg, VA.


The boundary that was pushing through the Appalachians overnight pretty much washes out by morning, with a lingering bit of it found over the Mid-Atlantic. A bit cooler temps will greet the region, but the conditions should be dry as we head southwestward through VA into eastern TN. Overall, another fairly good day!


It’s going to be a long day of driving, but with high pressure controlling much of the Deep South and Gulf Coast, we shouldn’t have any real problems driving! Might be some patchy fog as we head out of Chattannooga towards Birmingham, but should burn off fairly quickly. We’ll continue along I-20 through Tuscaloosa and through Mississippi before pushing into northern Louisiana late in the evening. It’ll be late but eventually we finally arrive worry-free into Shreveport!

Starting 2015 with rainy style

It seemed as though Poughkeepsie was off to a good start for 2015. High temperatures on Friday surpassed all expectation, rising all the way to 42 degrees. This seemed as though it would set the stage for a nice, rainy beginning to precipitation as a warm front lifted into the region. That wasn’t quite how it worked out, as there was a brief spell of snow, and then some freezing rain before it, but instead of the 2-4″ of accumulation that Frecast.io had suggested, it came in as over half an inch of rain yesterday, which is closer to what Victoria-Weather suggested. Poughkeepsie didn’t report snow accumulation, however judging near by storm reports, if there was any accumulation, it was under an inch. The Weather Channel had a warmer forecast than anyone for Friday, which gave them the top forecast in the first forecast of the year.
Actuals: Friday – High 42, Low 24
Saturday – .57 inches of liquid precip in snow and rain: High 42, Low 24

Grade: B – D (Whenever I remember, I will include the grade for the best forecast and the grade for the worst forecast to give you a better idea of how close forecasts were)

Poughkeepsie, New York

It’s the first forecast of the year, and it’s for downstate New York. I’m going to be including the forecast for another provider in 2015: Forecast.io (FIO as seen below). FIO is a completely model driven (i.e, no meteorologist involvement), and is the engine behind the popular Dark Clouds weather app. It’s one of my favorites out there, even if it might not be the prettiest app (that would belong to Yahoo). It’s a mobile age, so let’s look at some mobile forecasting, right? Actually, right now, let’s just look at Poughkeepsie.

At 557PM ET, Poughkeepsie was reporting a temperature of 34 degrees with clear skies. There was a bit of a southwesterly flow leading towards a weak cold front that sits through southern Quebec and Ontario. The Catskills will do an excellent job of preventing the boundary from bringing any moisture into Downstate New York tonight, and another clear night is in store for Poughkeepsie.
A system developing in west Texas and currently producing copious rain to the ArkLaTex and some freezing rain in the Ozarks will will spin its tires before the upper level trough swings into the Plains. Low pressure will ride the exit region of the jet and deeppen as it moves into the Great Lakes area by Saturday evening. Temperatures will climb in downstate New York, with a warm front arriving late in the afternoon. There is a chance for some sleet in the evening, but by the time the night ends, it will be persistent, heavy rain in Poughkeepsie.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 22
Saturday – Rain increases as the evening progresses. A bit of snow and sleet early. High 36, Low 23.

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 38, Low 25
Saturday – PM Snow Showers ,High 36, Low 23

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 38, Low 25
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a little accumulation of snow late in the afternoon (ice and rain late) High 36, Low 21

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 37, Low 23
Saturday – Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny (changing to sleet and rain late), High 36, Low 20

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning…then becoming partly sunny.High 32, Low 22
Saturday – Snow and sleet likely. Little or no snow accumulation. High 32, low 17

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 37, Low 23
Saturday – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Snow Showers High 36, low 19

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day.High 34, Low 24
Saturday – Snow (2–4 in.) starting in the afternoon. High 35, Low 22

And there it is, the first forecast for Forecast.io. Do they know something we don’t? I am very happy with the fact that they default to 24 forecast highs and lows though, which is nice. Here is the satellite with some clouds north of the border.

Poughkeepsie, New York to Tallahassee, Florida

You know what, it’s kind of fun to say “Poughkeepsie to Tallahassee”. The two cities are 1175 miles apart, which is one short day and one long day apart. The speed of our trip will be about 65.6mph, which means our shorter day of driving will cover 524 miles, with the rest coming in about 10 hours on Monday. It’s all Eastern Seaboard driving,which inevitably will mean a bit of traffic. I don’t think weather will be the biggest problem.

DAY ONE (Sunday)
There is another one of those pesky waves moving through the southern Great Lakes, but as we depart Poughkeepsie, it will be shrouded in high pressure. The wave will have a tough time scooting through the Appalachians, so there won’t be a lot of free convection, but a southerly flow off of the Atlantic will be enough to help touch off a few showers and even an isolated thunderstorm. High pressure will help keep a lid on the showers until we hit Baltimore, and even then, as we head south through DC and Virginia, it will be very widely scattered. The best chance for rain will be around Richmond, but showers will be tapering off as we make our way into North Carolina, and stop for the night in the tiny town of Dortches, northwest of Rocky Mount.

DAY TWO (Monday)
It’s likely to be cloudy and muggy for much f the day on Monday. Even after the passage of the wave over night, the threat for showers and sstorms will likely be better than they were on Sunday, simply because of the heat and humidity. Coastal South Carolina and south Georgia seems to be the stormiest, so that’s the forecast for where the most rain will be. It will be a little bit more isolated after we hit Lake City and continue towards Tallahassee, though, and coverage will be sparse enough that I think I feel safe in saying that we should be dry.

Tulsa, Oklahoma to Poughkeepsie, New York

Time to hit the road again. We’re going to set forth on a 2 1/2 day excursion that covers 1394 miles. This trip, taking us north of the length of the Ohio will move at a pace of 64.3mph, which means the weekend bits of the drive will be through after 514 hours, with a little bit less to look forward to on Monday.

DAY ONE (Saturday)
We are in a decidedly unfavorable weather pattern for the center of the country. Strong thunderstorms are the order of the day as wave after wave rides a stationary boundary born of high pressure and Gulf moisture. Tomorrow, the strongest wave will be moving right on through Missouri. As luck would have it, we will likely spend most of the drive between Joplin and St. Louis within a torrential downpour as the storm moves and builds right along with us. It won’t have enough momentum to reach too deeply into Illinois, but it will rain until Effingham. Oh, and some lighter showers are expected around Tulsa too. It’s going to be a rough day of driving, is what I’m saying. We will make it past Effingham tomorrow, and end up in Greenup, Illinois on Saturday night.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
The showers and storms won’t be as heavy on Sunday as the wave dissociates from the boundary and generally becomes more unraveled, but the rain will still continue at about the same pace as us. While on Saturday we were just ahead of, or smack dab within the heavy weather, on Sunday we will be chasing it, so I don’t think breezy conditions will be a problem, and we will see a few more breaks. Still, the threat for rain will continue throughout the drive on Sunday so city traffic will be really slow in Indianapolis or Columbus. It’s just going to be showers, we might not even see any thunderstorms, and we will finish the day in Clintonville in western Pennsylvania.

DAY THREE (Monday)
BY the time Monday rolls around, we are just going to worry about some general instability across the region as the wave continues to dissipate. It will be touched off more readily over the higher terrain, and won’t be much of a problem when we descend into the Hudson Valley. It will probably be some mostly cloudy skies in Poughkeepsie, but I don’t think that the thunderstorms will be widespread enough to guarantee storms upon our arrival.

Poughkeepsie, New York

Downstate New York for this morning’s forecast fun. What is to come?

At 1153AM, ET, Poughkeepsie was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with cloudy skies. The clouds were a product of an area of low pressure over Nova Scotia, but high pressure and weak flow aloft is going to help to prevent any of those clouds from materializing into anything aside from overcast conditions.
High pressure is expected to continue across the region at the surface, despite some weak waves moving aloft. Clouds will continue through the period at the mid and upper levels, as they are seen at present, and temperatures will not reach conditions that may be considered unbearable with the higher dew points lingering south of the weak upper level trough.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 85, Low 50
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 83, Low 52
Sunday – Partly Cloudy High 86, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and warmer; a beautiful start to the weekend High 84, Low 51
Sunday – Nice and warm with sunshine mixing with some clouds High 85, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 85, Low 52
Sunday – Mostly sunny High 87, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 85, Low 52
Sunday – Mostly sunny High 87, Low 54

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 84, Low 52
Sunday – Mostly Sunny High 88, Low 55

A little bit of turbulence induced clouds across New England, but for the time being, everything is looking pretty good.

The year starting with a bang

A massive winter system has been moving up the coast, while an area of cold air is pressing southeast into the same region. Snow fall amounts exploded with the addition of increased snow ratios (since snow is “fluffier” when temperatures are cooler), and the forecast for Poughkeepsie, in which Victoria-Weather called for 5-8″ and Accuweather called for 6-10″ worked out the best. Total, Poughkeepsie has seen 6″ but areas around there have ranged from 4-8″. Thanks in part to anticipating the early arrival of cold air on Thursday night, Accuweather had the top forecast for downstate New York.
Actuals: Wednesday – Trace of precipitation, High 31, Low 20
Thursday – Snow (6 inches at storm end) High 24, Low 6

Grade: C

Poughkeepsie, New York

For the final day of the year, we will head off to downstate New York. Not quite Times Square, but at least we are in the same time zone.

At 1153AM, ET, Poughkeepsie was reporting a temperature of 24 degrees. There is a round of snow lurking in the Poconos to the west of town, as well as in the Catskills to the north. They sat at the base of a very weak trough that was tapping into Great Lakes moisture, but was cut off from the Gulf Stream by a stronger jet running through the Mid-Atlantic. This meant flurries, cooler air, but for the time being, no significant snowfall.
A stronger upper level trough will swing into the Midwest by tomorrow afternoon as the jet shifts off shore in Poughkeepsie, leading to high pressure and a pleasant start to the new year in Poughkeepsie. The trough in the Midwest needs to be monitored, however, as the Gulf Stream, as well as the Gulf of Mexico will open up with the departure of the stronger jet. The warm front associated with the advancing trough will move into Poughkeepsie late on Wednesday. Snow and some sleet or freezing rain will be possible overnight. Cold air will move in with the trough even as the heaviest moisture remains offshore, and the band of moisture that will shift from being warm frontal will become quickly the typical inverted trough, back edge snow that so often leas to substantial accumulation. Despite the heavy moisture remaining offshore, the track of the storm will be just right for maximizing the cold air and tapping into the available moisture. Expect significant snow fall in Poughkeepsie.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny through the day, quickly turning to snow and a frozen mix, High 28, Low 18
Thursday – Snow continues through the day. Heaviest accumulations to the north, 5-8″ total. High 27, Low 16

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 28, Low 16
Thursday – Snow High 22, Low 19

AW: Tomorrow – Cold with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 28, Low 18
Thursday – 1-3 inches of snow (4-8″ overnight, 6-10″ total) High 22, Low 9

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of snow showers after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, high 28, Low 17
Thursday – Snow. High 20, Low 12

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning…then becoming mostly cloudy High 28, Low 17
Thursday – Snow High 22, Low 21

Serious issues for those not able to forecast hourly through Thursday. There is so much model variability from the domestic models that I am suprised that the other outlets are so consistent on Thursday. Let’s take a look at the radar right now.