Tag Archives: Memphis

An underdog victory

Memphis mostly dodged the threat of rain for the past two days, as much of the activity materialized much further to the east, along the coast, and was even lighter than anticipated in western Tennessee. Even if the activity wasn’t robust, there was still a little bit of shower activity in the region on each day of the verification period.Victoria-Weather was the only outlet that kept rain out of the forecast on either day, keeping things dry on Monday. That means we our forecast busted ever so slightly on the precipitation forecast. On the other hand, V-W was no less than 6 degrees better than all other comers on the temperature forecast thanks to an adherence to the short range model guidance, which kept temperature ranges narrow on Monday and much broader on Tuesday. Because we did so well on the temperatures, V-W edged out the field, who were otherwise very tightly packed.
Actuals: Monday – .01 inches of rain, High 69, low 61
Tuesday .07 inches of rain, High 83 59

 

Grade: C

Memphis, Tennessee to Sumter, South Carolina

We’re on our way for a long one day trek, from western Tennessee to eastern South Carolina. It will take almost 10 hours to cover the ground, although a trip through Atlanta might make things a bit slower.  The trip will cover 652 miles, which we will navigate at a pace of 66.4mph. Let’s see how the weather holds up.

Memphis

The way it looks right now, the richest flow associated with an area of low pressure over west Texas will be focused… east of the Appalachians? There is a coastal trough from Virginia to northern Florida that will amplify the flow forced by the back end of a ridge in the Atlantic and that weak trough in the southern Plains. Expect our drive to be mostly dry, if a bit cloudy, and warm. By dry, I mean “rainless” because it will be quite humid. We’ll first start to encounter rain around Anniston, Alabama, with heavier rain beginning to fall closer to Greensboro, Georgia. Steady rain will occupy our horizon through the state of South Carolina, and will provide a dismal welcome to Sumter.

sumter

Memphis, Tennessee

Memphis is nice. We don’t forecast enough along the banks of the Mississippi. Let’s see how it goes.

At 1154PM, CT, Memphis was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 64 degrees. Cold high pressure is parked over the Appalachians and will drift southeast and away from Memphis, but for the day tomorrow, it will still ensure a cool, dry start to the week.
Over the central Rockies, a weak upper level trough is working it’s way towards the Plains. By tomorrow afternoon, the Great Plains will be blanketed by rain showers, attempting to work their way to the east. Guidance suggests that the most activity will belong an emerging warm front north of the Ohio River, but destabilization brought forth by increasing moisture due to the induced southerly flow leads me to believe that there will be a few scattered showers and storms in the area.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 69, Low 57
Tuesday – Hot, with a chance for a shower of thunderstorm, High 81, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness. Occasional rain showers in the afternoon High 72, Low 56
Tuesday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 80, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a little rain High 70, Low 56
Tuesday – Periods of clouds and sun with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 78, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Cloudy, High 70, Low 58
Tuesday – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy High 78, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 68, Low 58
Tuesday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon Mostly cloudy. High 77, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with Chance of Light Showers High 70, Low 63
Tuesday – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 77, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the evening and overnight. High 72, Low 55
Tuesday –  Light rain in the morning and afternoon. High 81, Low 62

I will definitely be watching the Memphis radar tomorrow! Here is a look at the satellite, with clouds off to the west.

Memphis

Knotted in Memphis

It was a blustery day in Memphis on Friday as a cold front swept through. There was a little bit of rain as the system exited in the morning, but that was because the cold air hadn’t entirely departed. I asked if the day would be a non-standard day, wondering about time the day’s low temperature would show up, but I should have wondered about the high as well. It was 61 to start the day, dropping off precipitously after that point. It was, of course, a non standard day, thanks to the front’s slow pace through Memphis, but everyone came around with their forecast on Saturday. It ended up being a three way cluster on top between The Weather Channel, Accuweather and the Weather Service on top of the forecast heap.
Actuals: Friday – Trace of rain, High 61, Low 41
Saturday – High 55, Low 35

Grade: C

Memphis, Tennessee

Long distance information, get my Memphis Tennessee, help me find find the forecast that tried to get in touch with me

At 1154AM, CT, Memphis was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with clear skies and a gusty south wind. An area of low pressure was moving through the mid-Mississippi Valley, however the associated cold front was between Memphis and Little Rock, and it appeared highly unlikely that thunderstorms would pose a threat to the Memphis area this afternoon.
As the system over Missouri continues northeast towards southern New England, it will dramatically intensify, causing a cool down in Memphis, but also a great deal of bluster. Expect sunny skies, but a stout northwest wind tomorrow, with the wind abating on Saturday.
Tomorrow – Sunny and windy, High 54, Low 43
Saturday – Sunny skies continue, High 55, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Abundant sunshine. High 54, Low 42
Saturday – Mainly sunny High 53, Low 32

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and cooler with times of clouds and sun High 54, Low 42
Saturday – Plenty of sunshine High 54, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 55, Low 40
Saturday – Sunny High 55, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Much cooler. Mostly sunny High 55, Low 40
Saturday – Sunny High 54, Low 33

It will be interesting to see whether or not tomorrow will be a non-standard day. Constant northwest wind would lead me to believe that it will not be, because there isn’t going to be a dramatic change during the day tomorrow. Here is the satellite, with the most interesting thing to me is the swath of clouds along the Gulf Coast. Surprising dew points in Memphis could hit the mid 50s.

Well don’t I feel sheepish

The weather Memphis, if you have been following along with Twitter Tuesday, has simply been hot and humid for the past couple of days. Really, the most interesting thing about the forecast was that I simply forgot to transcribe the Weather Service forecast. Strange. The Weather Channel had the top forecast of outlets I actually checked, thanks in some part to the forecast of warm overnight lows. In fact, those lows never dropped below 73. Awful for sleeping. Nice work, TWC.
Actuals: Sunday – High 91, Low 73
Monday – High 93, Low 73

Grade: B

Memphis, Tennessee

Memphis has been right in line for nasty thunderstorms for the past several weeks. They caught some of the flooding, unfortunately, but have managed to avoid severe thunderstorms.

At 552PM, CT, Memphis was reporting mostly sunny skies with a temperature of 89 degrees and a brisk southerly wind. A seasonably strong jet was parked north of Memphis, and as it was mostly laminar, broad, disorganized low pressure was being seen along the Canadian border, and strong westerly flow is inducing some troughing over the southern Plains.
The good thing about the lack of any real upper level vorticity is that there is going to be little air mass advection which means there will be little by way of showers or thunderstorms. The cyclonic feature will agglomerate in the Dakotas through the next couple of days, drawing inclement conditions further from Memphis, instead promoting southerly flow and hot, sticky weather.
Tomorrow – Hot and humid, High 91, Low 68
Memorial Day – Still hot, still humid, High 92, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny. Hot. High 92, Low 70
Memorial Day – Sunshine High 92, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 94, Low 70
Memorial Day – Mostly sunny and warm High 92, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 92, Low 68
Memorial Day – Sunny. High 92, Low 69

If you are in the Memphis area, here’s hoping you don’t have vinyl seats. Satellite with a look at activity stashed way to the north.

Feature Forecast: Memphis, Tennessee, Feature Forecaster: David Still

Once again, we are fortunate enough to have another luminary from the meteorology world join us today. This time, it’s David Still from ABC24 in Memphis that has graced us with his presence. Without further interruption, here is what Mr. Still had to say about himself, and his forecast for Memphis!

Ever since Hurricane Hugo ripped through my hometown of Charlotte, NC when I was a kid I was pretty much hooked on the weather. It took a while for me to finally figure out exactly what I wanted to do so it took an extra round of school. I have a meteorology Post-Baccalaureate degree from the University of North Carolina at Asheville and a degree from Appalachian State University. Although I love the mountains if I could live anywhere it would definitely be on the coast of North or South Carolina. When I’m not at work I hit the gym pretty religiously. Depending on the season I like to fish and hunt. Lately, I’ve been trying to figure out if I have a green thumb.

And now on to the forecast:

Friday Night: We’ll look for mostly cloudy skies as a weak system from the Northern Plains scoots through Missouri. Luckily we stay dry and not as cold, low 25.

Saturday: Expect decreasing clouds during the day Saturday. A weak southerly flow becomes established across the Midsouth for the weekend helping the cold situation to an extent. Area snowmen will melt a bit during in the afternoon, but staying pretty chilly, partly sunny, high 42.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy skies combined with a light south wind keep the mercury closer to what we expect for late January, low 30.

Sunday: Clouds roll back into the Midsouth in advance of our next potential winter weather maker. Mostly cloudy, high 43.

Old Man Winter remains grumpy…the rest of next week will stay pretty cold and active. The good news for us!…he will focus his efforts more into Middle Tennessee, areas south towards Georgia, and east into the Carolinas by Wednesday.

Thank you Mr. David Still once again for adding your input here at Victoria-Weather. Again, you can see him weekday mornings and and during the midday news on ABC24 in Memphis.

Ithaca, New York to Memphis, Tennessee

Back on the road for another road trip, this one taking us from western New York to western Tennessee over the course of two days. It’s a surprising 1055 miles from Ithaca to Memphis, and we will cover the ground at a pace of 62.4mph, allowing us to cover 499 miles on that first day, the last day covering the remainder of the trip. Flurries to start for sure, but what will the rest of the trip bring?

DAY ONE

While there may be a brief flurry as we depart tomorrow morning from Ithaca, the majority of the snow will be done in Ithaca, and the snow would be brief as we are leaving town. The reason the snow will be ending in Ithaca, however, is because of a weak little eddy spinning up over Michigan, cutting off flow to Western New York from the Great Lakes, but also bringing the chance for snow in a more focused area. The chance for snow that left us as we left Ithaca will reemerge from about Erie, Pennsylvania to Mansfield, Ohio, before we get south of the snow once again. The end of the day will put us in Jeffersonville, Ohio, which is almost at the midway point between Columbus and Cincinnati.

DAY TWO
If we time things right, we shouldn’t have any problems on Sunday either. If we time things right. The drive from Jeffersonville to Nashville shouldn’t be any trouble, but a weak bundle of energy is sliding along a line from Nebraska to western Tennessee over the weekend. It won’t cause much precipitation, but at the very end of our drive, if the GFS model is correct, there might, might, MIGHT just be a flurry to drive through between Nashville and Memphis.

A little more organized

The worry with the forecast in Memphis was that things wouldn’t be quite as organized as one might hope when it came to the forecast. As it turned out, a solid line of thunderstorms set up over Arkansas (where tornadoes were seen around Little Rock) during the day Wednesday before it marched east and crashed into the greater Memphis area. And by “just after midnight” I mean they arrived at 12:03AM. There was no assorted shower activity ahead of the boundary as we all expected, and when it came through, it was much stronger than we had all though. 57mph winds and hail were all seen before 1AM, and then it all petered out before the sun rose. That’s the last time we underestimate an upper level low. Accuweather broke out of their doldrums and had the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 75, Low 59
Thursday – 1.10 inches of rain with hail in thunderstorms, High 72, Low 53

Grade: B