A little more organized
Posted by Ryan
The worry with the forecast in Memphis was that things wouldn't be quite as organized as one might hope when it came to the forecast. As it turned out, a solid line of thunderstorms set up over Arkansas (where tornadoes were seen around Little Rock) during the day Wednesday before it marched east and crashed into the greater Memphis area. And by "just after midnight" I mean they arrived at 12:03AM. There was no assorted shower activity ahead of the boundary as we all expected, and when it came through, it was much stronger than we had all though. 57mph winds and hail were all seen before 1AM, and then it all petered out before the sun rose. That's the last time we underestimate an upper level low. Accuweather broke out of their doldrums and had the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday - High 75, Low 59
Thursday - 1.10 inches of rain with hail in thunderstorms, High 72, Low 53
Grade: B
Memphis, Tennessee to Elkhart, Indiana
Posted by Ryan
Our first trip on the new version of the site takes us from Memphis to northern Indiana on a trip that will take us nearly 10 hours. Not a terrible day, but longer than we are used to. It's a 611 mile trip that will see us travel at a rate of almost 62mph, slowed down by the intricate interstate systems of Memphis and Chicago. It's going to be a soggy trip, so lets change those windshield wipers and be on our way.
It will have been miserable in Memphis for about 48 hours by the time we leave, so why should we expect anything different? A whirling mass of rain and clouds over the center of the country isn't going anywhere. The most recent round will feature a stronger cold front that is primed to enter Memphis just after midnight tonight, bringing some thunderstorms into the mix. As we leave Memphis, we'll be driving in the heaviest of the rain, but will see an abrupt clearing as we pass through Arkansas, Missouri and into Illinois. This front is the best chance we have at some legitimate clearing. It will actually be fairly dry, but probably cloudy most of the way through Illinois, a fairly fitting climate for anyone who is driving through rural Illinois. As we pull into the Kankakee area, we will run into the rain once again. The occluded system will have wrapped itself back east at Chicago, which means we'll likely be in the rain the rest of the way to Elkhart. Not just a little bit of rain either, but a soaking, thorough rain. Better than snow.
Memphis, Tennessee
Posted by Ryan
This time a week ago, I was supposed to be verifying Anthony's forecast in Flagstaff. Alas, it is gone forever. Instead, we will get back on track with a forecast in Memphis.
At 1153AM, ET, Memphis was reporting a temperature of 57 with cloudy skies. A large upper low was winding itself into occlusion over the central Plains, and had pushed it's initial round of rain to the east of town. A healthy dry slot head established itself over Arkansas and promised to bring Memphis a chance at some clearing skies this afternoon.
The upper low has become dissociated with the primary jet over the Gulf of Mexico, which will mean the system will languish and spin itself out rather than advance. Cloudy skies will remain over the center of the country until a stronger system can move through. There is a broader trough entering from the west and will gradually strengthen over the next 48 hours. The secondary low will take almost the same path as the original upper system, but will have upper support and will form a classic frontal structure. Expect a warm front to set up just south of Memphis tomorrow before gradually lifting north. This system will lead to rain for almost all of the eastern half of the country, but Memphis may be on the fringe of a slowly progressing secondary cold front and the dry slot for much of the day on Thursday.
Tomorrow - Rain possible, with the heaviest southeast of town, High 66, Low 57
Thursday - Chance of rain through the day, diminishing towards evening, High 70, Low 57
TWC: Tomorrow - Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing (evening t-storms). High 70, Low 58
Thursday - Slight chance of a thunderstorm High 74, Low 57
AW: Tomorrow - Clouds and breaks of sun; warmer with a shower or thunderstorm around High 76, Low 59
Thursday - Clouds yielding to sun (AM Showers) High 72, Low 59
NWS: Tomorrow - A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy High 75, Low 59
Thursday - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 74, Low 60
WB: Tomorrow - A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. High 75, Low 59
Thursday -
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy in the morning...then becoming partly sunny. High 74, Low 60
This forecast is a mess. With some much whirling energy, clouds and rain, the temperatures will certainly bust at some point. High? Low? I don't now. Always what you want to hear from a meteorologist, right? Radar shows the initial round of rain pushing out of town.
