It’s time for another round of forecast forecasting. Here is a look at what we will be looking at in the next couple of weeks.
Bloomington, Indiana
Montgomery, Alabama
Road Trip from Bloomington to Montgomery
Beaumont, Texas
Coming soon…
June Forecaster of the Month
Hurricane Beryl continues to roil through the Ohio Valley as a weak area of low pressure. There is still some threat for severe weather because of the storm, but her most ominous days are behind her. The Lesser Antilles have already been recovering for a week!
Also in the last few days, there has been a minor change here at the site. You may notice the icon at the top of your web browser has changed. I learned that another weather provider uses a logo that is very similar to the old orange on black that I used. Now, it is a white V a white to blue gradient, like clouds in the sky. If you saw that and were confused, that is the explanation.
That is also the logo I will use if the June forecaster of the month news hits the mainstream. We went as far away as Alaska with our forecasts this month, but the winner is close to home. It’s us, if that wasn’t already abundantly clear.
| Outlet | Forecast Wins (year) |
| The Weather Channel | 8.82 |
| Victoria-Weather | 7.48 |
| WeatherNation | 3.83 |
| Accuweather | 3.16 |
| Clime | 3 |
| National Weather Service | 1.49 |
| Weatherbug | 1 |
An independent streak
Our forecast for Utica fell over the Independence Day holiday, and called for a warming trend that would ultimately approach 90 on Friday. While it was a few degrees from 90 on Friday, it was actually warmer on the 4th than it was on the 5th. There was a splash of rain in the morning, but not enough to alter anyone’s plans, so trips to the lake, runs through the sprinkler, or any sort of deck or patio based activities were on. Everyone had the 5th as the warmer day, so WeatherNation being among the warmer forecasts on the 4th and cooler forecasts on the 5th ended up claiming a victory.
Actuals: Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 87, Low 70
Friday – High 85, Low 69
Grade: C
Punta Gorda, Florida
Hurricane season is off to a daunting start, with Beryl already bringing category 4 and 5 damage to islands in the Caribbean, and poised to bring soaking rain to Mexico and the Texas Coast through the remainder of the weekend. Southwest Florida has become a hurricane hot spot over the last few years, after a long era of quiet, and perhaps a bit of complacency, residents of Punta Gorda are going to be eying the tropics more warily.
At 353PM, ET, Punta Gorda was reporting a temperature of 94 degrees with clear skies. Despite Beryl churning, expecting to become a hurricane again before landfalling near Corpus Christi tomorrow, there was a bit of diurnal thunderstorm activity beginning to fire along the coast in Florida near Sarasota, and south of the area, over the Everglades. This activity will continue through the evening, feasting on temperatures in the 90s.
There is a trough through the southeastern US and touching off storms, particularly in Georgia, and this boundary is helping to draw southerly flow across the Sunshine state and exasperating the threat of storms. A weak subtropical feature will drift into the Jacksonville area and make storms more widespread across Florida. The added circulation across the area will tap into the broad Floridian instability, and late Monday looks to be even stormier than today and tomorrow.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms, High 95, Low 77
Monday – Mostly sunny through the day, late evening 93, Low 77
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy early with thunderstorms becoming likely during the afternoon. High 92, Low 78
Monday – Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 91, Low 79
AW: Tomorrow – Humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 94, Low 77
Monday – Humid with some sun, then turning cloudy High 89, Low 77
NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Mostly sunny High 90. Low 79
Monday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly sunny High 90 Low 79
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning, becoming scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 91, Low 79
Monday – Mostly sunny. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms in the morning then numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 92, Low 80
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 90, Low 79
Monday – Partly cloudy with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, High 89, Low 79
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 91, Low 79
Monday – Thunderstorm, High 90, Low 78
Clime says just the one thunderstorm in Punta Gorda. I’m going a bit warmer than the rest, following their warm day in Punta Gorda today. A look at the satellite of tropics shows that Beryl isn’t a large storm, but is on her way to Texas.
At least one place isn’t going to be hot
I know Alaska is the furthest north of all of our 50 US states, so one would imagine that it is usually also the coldest of our 50 states. So what is so unusual, warranting this quick update? Alaska is the only spot for essentially the rest of the month that the CPC has tagged as “below normal” for their temperature outlook.
Relative calm ahead of the holiday weekend
We have reached the most doldrum-y day of summer. Friday July 5th is a vacation day for a lot of people, and it is a pause for a lot of the national outlets as well (except for the NHC). It is going to be storming for a good part of the country, but strong activity should be few and far betwen.
It will continue like this for a few days, but Sunday, be on the lookout for Hurricane Beryl to landfall along the Mexican Border near Brownsville. The days of Cat-5 Beryl are long past, so perhaps many North Americans can focus on the Caribbean as it rebounds from the storm’s impact.
Utica, New York
I once had a job where I would issue forecasts regularly for Tunica, Mississippi. It has nothing in common with Utica, except Tunica’s identifier is KUTA, and I had a coworker who regularly called Tunica “Utica”, and that is all I can think of when I think of Utica. I’m sorry, Utica.
At 353PM, ET, Utica was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees and clear skies. Accompanying this warmth and sunshine was a brisk southerly well, importing still more warm air from the southeast. Low pressure is occluded and winding down over James Bay, but is still allowing for the vigorous southerly flow through western New York. Associated showers and storms won’t enjoy the instability they are seeing in southern Ontario right now, but a stray overnight shower in Utica seems likely.
The evening of Independence Day tomorrow looks OK for fireworks. Orphaned moisture in the mid-Atlantic as the low moves from James Bay to Nunavut will linger and ensure some mid level clouds with light winds. Much of the day will be clear on Friday as well, with a return of warm south winds. The next feature will be emerging in the Upper Midwest through this time, and will bring a more likely shot of rain late on Friday.
Tomorrow – Early showers, then mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 69
Friday – Sunny early with a late shower, High 88, Low 62
TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with mostly cloudy conditions later in the day. High 86, Low 70
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 88, Low 63
AW: Tomorrow – A passing shower in the morning; otherwise, very warm and humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 86, Low 67
Friday – Very warm and humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 88, Low 62
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 11am. Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 69
Friday – A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 65
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon, High 83, Low 67
Friday – Partly sunny (late rain), High 88, Low 65
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers and isolated storms, High 86, Low 69
Friday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 88, Low 66
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 83, Low 67
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 63
It looks like a warm start to the holiday weekend in western New York. I hope there and everywhere stays healthy and happy, while saying a little prayer for residents of the West Indies and Jamaica, who will spend the time recovering from Hurricane Beryl. As for the Mid-Atlantic, the satellite is more ominous than the forecast portends.
Severe weather in the middle of the country
There was an enhanced risk for severe weather in southeast Iowa today, and sure enough, there were a couple of tornado reports near Iowa City, but aside from one cell, it was pretty quiet in the Hawkeye State. Further south, storms were more widespread, and there were several straight line wind reports in northwest Missouri. Fortunately, as the evening winds down, it is looking much quieter for residents of Missouri, with one severe line still roiling east of Kansas City.
The next season is upon us
You may be think I am talking about hurricane season, but nowadays, that begins in late May. Hurricane Beryl isn’t something that starts right at the beginning of the season — the beginning of the season is now earlier than it used to be.
No, I’m talking about something else: Monsoon season. We know it is here when we start getting WPC discussions that include the Gadsden Purchase.
It’s all day time heating
Our forecast for Fairbanks late in June featured a pretty decent thunderstorm on the 21st. It resulted in about a quarter inch of rain, and the revelation to a few people, I’m sure, that there is thunder in the middle of Alaska. The low pressure that shifted out of the area allowed Fairbanks to see a bit more of the non stop daylight from around the summer equinox, and all that daylight pushed temperatures to close to 80. Victoria-Weather got the top forecast for the day, despite speculating on rain every day through the forecast.
Actuals: June 21st, .23″ of rain, High 75, Low 53
June 22nd, High 79, Low 51
Grade: B-D