Thus far, the biggest tropical story in the Continental US surrounded the remnants of Beryl after it had done it’s worst in the Caribbean, and Debby, which was more notorious for lingering in the southeast than for being particularly strong. Now, Ernesto took a swipe at Bermuda and has left us with nothing to monitor in the Atlantic Basin.
Saharan sands are blowing off of the African continent, and getting into the trade winds, inhibiting cyclonic development. The NHC foresees no tropical development for at least the next 48 hours, and the GFS – by no means meteorological gospel – doesn’t really show anything in the area until around Labor Day, nearly two weeks from today.
That’s a real slow stretch in a season that was promised to be very active, particularly since the peak of hurricane season is typically in early September. It seems like this might be a precursor for saying that the season may not be as busy as we believed at the outset, but it is not. Even with the data we have on hand, and access to the freshest short term modeling, the Hurricane Center’s latest outlook came out, and didn’t go easy on the number of tropical storms.
There will still be a week or so from the end of the GFS run to the traditional “peak” of the season. After this peak, the oceanic temperature doesn’t immediately fall off. The season begins in June, and has been creeping earlier. As a result, the season still goes another couple of months, until November. Plenty of time, and with the very warm Atlantic, plenty of fuel still left for storms.
Enjoy the last bit of summer, but remember that by Labor Day, things may be getting pretty hairy in the Caribbean once again.