We have reached the most doldrum-y day of summer. Friday July 5th is a vacation day for a lot of people, and it is a pause for a lot of the national outlets as well (except for the NHC). It is going to be storming for a good part of the country, but strong activity should be few and far betwen.
It will continue like this for a few days, but Sunday, be on the lookout for Hurricane Beryl to landfall along the Mexican Border near Brownsville. The days of Cat-5 Beryl are long past, so perhaps many North Americans can focus on the Caribbean as it rebounds from the storm’s impact.
I once had a job where I would issue forecasts regularly for Tunica, Mississippi. It has nothing in common with Utica, except Tunica’s identifier is KUTA, and I had a coworker who regularly called Tunica “Utica”, and that is all I can think of when I think of Utica. I’m sorry, Utica.
At 353PM, ET, Utica was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees and clear skies. Accompanying this warmth and sunshine was a brisk southerly well, importing still more warm air from the southeast. Low pressure is occluded and winding down over James Bay, but is still allowing for the vigorous southerly flow through western New York. Associated showers and storms won’t enjoy the instability they are seeing in southern Ontario right now, but a stray overnight shower in Utica seems likely. The evening of Independence Day tomorrow looks OK for fireworks. Orphaned moisture in the mid-Atlantic as the low moves from James Bay to Nunavut will linger and ensure some mid level clouds with light winds. Much of the day will be clear on Friday as well, with a return of warm south winds. The next feature will be emerging in the Upper Midwest through this time, and will bring a more likely shot of rain late on Friday. Tomorrow – Early showers, then mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 69 Friday – Sunny early with a late shower, High 88, Low 62
TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with mostly cloudy conditions later in the day. High 86, Low 70 Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 88, Low 63
AW: Tomorrow – A passing shower in the morning; otherwise, very warm and humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 86, Low 67 Friday – Very warm and humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 88, Low 62
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 11am. Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 69 Friday – A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 65
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon, High 83, Low 67 Friday – Partly sunny (late rain), High 88, Low 65
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers and isolated storms, High 86, Low 69 Friday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 88, Low 66
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 83, Low 67 Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 63
It looks like a warm start to the holiday weekend in western New York. I hope there and everywhere stays healthy and happy, while saying a little prayer for residents of the West Indies and Jamaica, who will spend the time recovering from Hurricane Beryl. As for the Mid-Atlantic, the satellite is more ominous than the forecast portends.
There was an enhanced risk for severe weather in southeast Iowa today, and sure enough, there were a couple of tornado reports near Iowa City, but aside from one cell, it was pretty quiet in the Hawkeye State. Further south, storms were more widespread, and there were several straight line wind reports in northwest Missouri. Fortunately, as the evening winds down, it is looking much quieter for residents of Missouri, with one severe line still roiling east of Kansas City.
You may be think I am talking about hurricane season, but nowadays, that begins in late May. Hurricane Beryl isn’t something that starts right at the beginning of the season — the beginning of the season is now earlier than it used to be.
No, I’m talking about something else: Monsoon season. We know it is here when we start getting WPC discussions that include the Gadsden Purchase.
Our forecast for Fairbanks late in June featured a pretty decent thunderstorm on the 21st. It resulted in about a quarter inch of rain, and the revelation to a few people, I’m sure, that there is thunder in the middle of Alaska. The low pressure that shifted out of the area allowed Fairbanks to see a bit more of the non stop daylight from around the summer equinox, and all that daylight pushed temperatures to close to 80. Victoria-Weather got the top forecast for the day, despite speculating on rain every day through the forecast. Actuals: June 21st, .23″ of rain, High 75, Low 53 June 22nd, High 79, Low 51
I mentioned the rain that is forecast to come this week, painting a particular target on eastern Iowa, southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin in my last update. Fortunately, the overlap with areas that have already seen too much rain this summer is not perfect. But there is still overlap, and the rain has caused some mighty problems for areas from the Siouxland of Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska northeast through south central Minnesota.
In southeastern South Dakota, McCook Lake, an unconnected oxbow lake suddenly had water flowing into it from runoff and redirected flow, causing it to overspill its bank, and destroying property north of Sioux City. The rising water damaged cropland from Nebraska and South Dakota east through northwest Iowa and southwestern Minnesota. The towns of Windom, Jackson and Waterville were underwater, because of the Des Moines River in Windom and Jackson, and the Cannon River in Waterville. The above video shows the scene in the south Twin Cities metro, where Shakopee’s Valley Fair Amusement Park had to close some rides and lost use of their parking lot because the Minnesota has spilled its banks. And of course, we have all seen video of the rising water opting to circumvent the Rapidan Dam, with disastrous regional effects.
Fortunately, it was a dry weekend. Unfortunately, the week ahead doesn’t look that way. A few more successive waves in the northern Plains look to keep things cool and wet. The bullseye for wet weather is shifted a bit to the east, so the smaller creeks and rivers may not see repeat flood risks, but most of these waterways flow in the same direction. Eventually, there may be concern for Mississippi River towns from the Twin Cities on south.
Rain has been a destructive force for the Upper Midwest this early summer season. The heavy rain has swamped a particular swath from the Sioux City area to the high profile overwhelming of the Rapidan dam in southern Minnesota. There is more rain on the way in what should be another busy week, but this time, it is shifted about half a state to the east.
This kind of rain isn’t going to help anything, as much of the precipitation will be flowing towards those same, overwhelmed locations. For good measure, more rain is coming for southwest Florida as well, a place that flooded earlier this year.
It’s certainly been a minute since we checked in on the status of our top forecasters for the months and the year. It’s too bad because especially in April, the news was good for Victoria-Weather. It was a well contested month by all parties, but Victoria-Weather ended up comfortably surpassing our competitors.
We had a few more stops on the forecast train in May, which will allow our champion, Accuweather, to take a little bit more credit for the month. Not to toot our own horns, but Victoria-Weather came in second in May as well. A solid spring, but what’s the story for the year?
Things have mercifully cooled off in the American Southwest since our forecast in Albuquerque at the beginning of the month (though fires still rage). Back then, there was hope for some isolated showers and storms by a few of our outlets, but they would not come to pass on the 7th or 8th of the month. This meant temperatures lingered unchecked in the upper 90s, with enough humidity to make New Mexicans especially uncomfortable. The splash of showers in the forecast, and the lack thereof in reality brought a couple of outlets level on this particular verification, with Clime and Accuweather having different precip forecasts and sharing a win. Actuals: June 7th, High 97, Low 73 June 8th, High 97, Low 69
Fairbanks! Wow. This is certainly one of the most remote, but also one of the smallest towns that get forecast treatment here at Victoria-Weather. It’s a summer forecast as we approach the solstice, so it’s probably going to be a little tame, actually.
At 753PM, Alaskan Time, Fairbanks was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 74. There was a smattering of isolated showers and potentially thunderstorms ringing the city, with the most significant cell around Fort Greely. Deep low pressure south of the Aleutians is churning up moist return flow through southern Alaska, and is contributing to a few orographic showers and storms. The system will continue eastward over the next couple of days, which will only invigorate the the shower activity in central Alaska. This will allow the activity to become more robust through the forecast period, before beginning to taper a bit in coverage and intensity as the low reaches the Panhandle and British Columbia. Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, High, 76, Low 54 Friday – Showers and storms early, winding down in the afternoon, High 77, Low 53
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 75, Low 56 Friday – Partly cloudy skies High 76, Low 55
AW: Tomorrow – Becoming cloudy with a couple of showers High 76, Low 55 Friday – Some sun, then turning cloudy with a couple of showers High 76, Low 53
NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 1pm and 4pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 4pm High 76, Low 55 Friday – Scattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Partly sunny High 76, Low 54
WB: Tomorrow – Haze in the morning. Partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce small hail frequent lightning and heavy rainfall in the afternoon. High 77, Low 59 Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 76, Low 59
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and isolated storms, High 76, Low 56 Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 75, Low 55
CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 79, Low 54 Friday – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 54
Fun fact – I can copy and paste the first three outlets into this post, but I manually type the other forecasts in, so thanks for today ,Weatherbug. I’m not giving you an image, because I am exhausted, but find out more from Amanda Hanson at KTVF in Fairbanks.
