Pueblo, Colorado

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There is a lot to be said about the tremendous change in geography from west to east in Colorado, but not enough is noted about the changes you see along the front range from north to south. Denver is a very different town from Pueblo, from the setting to the people. The weather is usually fairly dissimilar as well, and I’m sure it will be again this week.

At 1053PM, MT, Pueblo was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees with clear skies. While the pattern at the highest levels of the atmosphere was fairly unremarkable, the dry line is becoming active, and there was a bit of a curl to the flow over west Texas. This is helping focus todays and future storms around the dry line.
There will be a westerly flow throughout the period over Colorado, which will result in some spotty showers over the Rockies, but the combination of moisture being restricted from the Gulf and the downsloping winds will render precipitation in Pueblo improbably, and sun and warm temperatures the more likely scenario for the next couple of days.
Tomorrow – Sunny and warm, High 92, Low 57
Thursday – Sunny and hot, High 91, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 91, Low 58
Thursday – Mostly sunny early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 90, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 92, Low 55
Thursday – Sun followed by some clouds and very warm, turning breezy in the afternoon with a thunderstorm around High 94, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 91, Low 57
Thursday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. High 87, Low 62
Thursday – Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers, High 91, Low 58
Thursday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms High 92, Low 57

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, high 91, Low 56
Thursday – Light rain showers, High 93, Low 58

Certainly some discrepancy in the rain forecasts. I’m standing by myself with this one, but I feel good. Maybe a few showers down by Trinidad, but I think Pueblo stays dry. Clouds are overshooting the Rockies this evening

Updates 6/10

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9:21PM – June is typically when things start to settle down for the severe season, with generalized convection in the south, and rogue strong storms in the north and east, but the cold pool that has been sitting in the Great Lakes meant severe weather, intense at time, lingered in the southern Plains even in Texas last night. Now? Nothing rises higher than a Marginal Risk over the next several days. Summer!

10:57PM – The Goodland NWS office has this idea summarized in their weather story.

Smoke from a distant fire

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Much of the upper Midwest, in addition to being off to a fairly cool start to June, has also offered up respiratory distress for many of it’s residents. Canadian wild fire smoke has plagued the region, thanks to a northerly regime and some light intermittent showers bringing the smoke aloft down to the surface. The first day of June, coincidentally the second day of our forecast period in Green Bay was the first really impactful day of the smoke for many locations. It has been a bit worse further to the west from Green Bay, but the north wind and diffused sunlight ensured that temperatures didn’t spike despite the sunshine. There was a three way tie at the top of the forecast charts. The National Weather Service and WeatherNation had the same forecast, so naturally were a part of the tie, but Victoria-Weather came about it a different way and still ended up in the three way knot.
Actuals: May 31st, High 73, Low 43
June 1st, High 74, Low 42

Grade: B-C

Updates 6/9

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2:58PM – As a result of going away from the county based warning system to a “polygon” system, but also still using counties to some degree, we have had these weird nested warnings on our radar displays now for a some time. No, Georgia, you aren’t in a double warning because the storms are so bad, you are in a double warning because geospatial mapping isn’t as easy as anyone thinks it should be.

10:44PM: It is quarter to 11 on June 9th, and there is finally no rain in the Twin Cities area. Does this mean warmer temperatures? And will the departure of the persistent north wind, does that means less smoke? Probably! I hope!

May Forecaster of the Month

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It wasn’t a busy month for forecasts for us, but there was still plenty to talk about. Tornado season leads to hurricane season, and as a result, there is always a little bit of extra attention on the weather this time of year, so even if we didn’t get a high volume of forecasts, their success was a little bit weightier. The beleaguered National Weather Service did come through with the top forecasts for the month.

Outlet Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel 4
National Weather Service 4
Accuweather 3.5
Weatherbug 3
Clime 2.5
Victoria-Weather 2.5
WeatherNation 1.5

Dalton, Georgia

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Dalton is an interesting place for a forecast visit. It is so close to the commercial weather Mecca that is Atlanta, and yet so far. Dalton is in the higher terrain of northwest Georgia, which can lead to some interesting weather perturbations that are dissimilar even to the spots just down the road.

At 1053AM, ET, Dalton was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with overcast skies. A sharp upper level ridge was tilted across New England, which was allowing for some clean radars for the moment, however the pattern aloft is quite active, including a sharp trough over the Northern Plains, and of more local concern, a weak lower level short wave over the eastern Gulf.
The strength of the upper trough and the moisture attendant with the weak Gulf low will interact to bring clouds and moisture north into the Peach State. The Gulf trough is going to weaken as it drifts ashore, and while clouds are expected in Dalton both Wednesday and Thursday, the precipitation associated with those clouds will be light. Aloft, the northern jet is going to phase down and reconstitute north of the Canadian border, robbing the area of conflicting air masses, which will ultimately make the next two days fairly dull and dreary.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with spots of drizzle, High 83, low 66
Thursday – Light rain possible early, then mostly cloudy, High 85, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 86, Low 66
Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 87, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sun High 84, Low 65
Thursday – Humid with plenty of sun High 85, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 4pm. Mostly sunny High 85, Low 66
Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny High 86, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 83, Low 67
Thursday – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the morning then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon High 86, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 87, Low 66
Thursday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 86, low 66

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 85 Low 64
Thursday – Sunny, High 84, Low 65

The satellite is pretty clean right now, and it won’t be real ugly later, but it will certainly be different.

Green Bay, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

In NFL circles, Green Bay is known as the “Frozen Tundra”. Something tells me that, rolling into June, that name isn’t as apt.

At 456PM, CT, Green Bay was in reporting rain. There were spotty showers and thunderstorms throughout the region, including a few that have been severe with large hail. A broad area of low pressure centered over Eastern Canada is trailing a few different frontal and post frontal bands. There is severe weather s a result of this system on the east coast, and the weather in Eastern Wisconsin is the most significant post frontal activity.
The disorganized upper level pattern surrounding the trough is going to coalesce as a jet trough overnight into tomorrow morning. This will make the overall pattern more transient. Lingering shower activity will wrap up this evening, and tomorrow will be dry as a weak ridge enters the picture. The next feature will be more appropriately centered for this time of year, and will emerge from the Canadian Prairies. By Sunday afternoon, America’s Dairyland will be within the warm sector of this feature, with some isolated showers and storms popping up late in the day over central Wisconsin, but the Lake cooled air should keep them away from Green Bay.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 46
Sunday – Mostly sunny, warmer with isolated clouds late, High 76, Low 43

TWC: Tomorrow -Sunny skies. High 73, Low 47
Sunday – Sunny.  High 77, Low 44

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and nice; wildfire smoke will cause the sky to be hazy High 73, Low 47
Sunday – Hazy sunshine and warm; smoke from Canadian wildfires will obscure the sky High 79, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of smoke after 4pm. Sunny, High 69, Low 45
Sunday – Sunny, High 75, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Areas of smoke in the afternoon High 70, Low 48
Sunday – Sunny. High 74, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 45
Sunday – Sunny, High 75, Low 43

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 47
Sunday – Sunny, High 79. Low 42

For more on that smoke, take a look at the WBAY weather forecast. For more on the storms this afternoon, check out the radar loop below. For more on the forecast from Clime tomorrow, I can’t help you.

Updates 5/30

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3:51PM: If you are anything like me, you will take advantage of the NWS snowfall probability forecasts in any pending snow fall scenario. Now, the NWS has similar outlooks for rainfall, which is great for farmers and gardeners, and is available here. Update the final three letters of the URL to your NWS office to see a map for where you live.

10:47PM: This spring has remained fairly active. There have certainly been the fair share of severe storms, but also, east of the Rockies has been on the rainy side of average for a lot of places. At least in places like western Nebraska, which has been drier, there is an ongoing forecast for rain for the next couple of days.

Updates 5/27

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10:15pm – The big slow moving blob of low pressure in the Great Lakes is, as noted, producing severe weather persistently in the southern US is also producing some cool weather in the Upper Midwest, and frequent spats of showers with occasional thunderstorms. This is more typical of April than late May. Things should be turning over in the next couple of weeks, however.