Hanford, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Our forecast today takes us to the Central Valley of California, where the weather may not provide the reprieve you typically expect.

At 1253PM, Hanford was reporting a clear skies and a temperature of 62 degrees. Northern California, particularly at the higher terrain is under advisories for high wind and snow. At the lower terrain, a trough moving ashore from the Pacific Northwestern coast will carry a significant feature with it. The associated cold front will slide into central California with less fanfare, but will still introduce rain through the afternoon tomorrow.
The moisture will linger through the morning with more drizzle and fog to start Tuesday. A cooler morning, thanks to clouds and a northerly flow will result. Expect snow to persist in the mountains northeast of town for much longer. High pressure builds in by the end of the day across California.
Tomorrow – Rain likely in the afternoon, High 58, Low 45
Tuesday – Rain early, fog and clouds linger, High 60, Low 39

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with periods of rain.  High 55, Low 48
Tuesday – Sunny skies (early rain).  High 62, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; cool; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour High 62, Low 50
Tuesday – Cool with clouds giving way to sun High 63, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain before 2pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High 60, Low 49
Tuesday – Sunny High 62, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Rain in the morning then rain showers in the afternoon. High 55, Low 48
Tuesday – Sunny (early rain). High 60, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain and isolated storms, High 57, Low 50
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 61, Low 42

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 59, Low 48
Tuesday – Sunny, High 60, Low 39

Some differing opinions on the rain for central California, which opens the possibility of an interesting verification. Some clouds showing up to the north, a precursor to what’s coming.

All hail the NAM

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We looked at Poughkeepsie, New York at the beginning of the week. The town was in a clear patch between two systems. The northern system was robbed of moisture by the southern feature, and everyone but the Weather Channel and the GFS believed that Poughkeepsie would see dry skies, and everyone but the Weather Channel and the GFS were correct. It was dry in the atmosphere on Tuesday, which led to a wider temperature delta than was expected. Scores weren’t great, but Accuweather earned a win.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 70, Low 29
Wednesday – High 48, Low 35

Grade: C-D

St. Joseph, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

St. Joseph is up river along the Missouri from Kansas City, and are eying some potentially significant weather as the weekend approached. Lets join them in eying the weather.

At 1053PM, CT, St. Joseph was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 60 degrees. The unusual warmth was a precursor to a strong area of low pressure developing in the High Plains, and threatening a busy end to the week. The strong surface feature will occlude fairly quickly. Expect it to be warm in St. Joseph tomorrow, however the leading edge of thunderstorms will develop along I-35 – east of St. Joseph – around mid afternoon tomorrow, but the colder air is expected to lag behind.
While strong thunderstorms are a possibility through much of Missouri, it is looking at this time that they will not bother St. Joseph. There is still a slight risk for severe storms, but most of the wet weather will be in the form of scattered showers in the evening. The leading edge of cold air will arrive in St. Joseph overnight, with a clearer and significantly cooler day on Saturday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms late, windy and starting to cool off in the evening, High 73, Low 57
Saturday – Clearing and colder, High 57, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with periods of thunderstorms later in the day. A few storms may be severe. High 78, Low 54
Saturday – Considerable cloudiness. high 54, Low 38

AW: Tomorrow – Winds becoming strong; very warm with times of clouds and sun, a strong afternoon thunderstorm; storms can bring damaging winds, large hail and even a tornado High 76, Low 55
Saturday – Windy and cooler with times of clouds and sun; strong winds can cause localized power outages; secure loose objects High 55, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly sunny,  High 78, Low 58
Saturday – Partly sunny, (Showers before 1) High 58, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers in the afternoon. High 78, Low 57
Saturday – Partly sunny and breezy. High 57, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 78, Low 58
Saturday – Partly cloudy with showers, High 58, Low 41

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm High 78, Low 55
Saturday – Overcast High 55, Low 38

St. Joseph will get none of the noise from tomorrow’s storms, but will get the cold air behind it. The calm before storm, literally, is pretty calm.

Hinesville, Georgia to Poughkeepsie, New York

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Off to the races we go, with a very I-95 dependent journey north along the east coast. It will take two days, the first longer than the second, to cover the 909 miles between our two cities. That will equate to a pace of 64mph, which is probably going to be slowed by traffic. Our goal for night one is 514 miles, which is more than halfway there. Wait…. Does this route go through New Jersey?

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

Hinesville, Georgia

A rainy area of low pressure that’s been bothering the southeast is finally off shore, and anyone driving the region tomorrow will enjoy pleasant conditions across the coastal Carolinas. We will pass into Virginia, and end the day on the north side of Richmond, in Ashland.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
A weak wave is going to spin out of eastern Canada, into New England. There shouldn’t be enough moisture at the surface to impact the roads, but from about Baltimore onwards, expect an uptick in wind and a bit more overcast. It will be at the gloomiest as we reach Poughkeepsie.

Poughkeepsie, New York

Updates 3/11

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1051AM We had a long lead to some severe weather last week, and we are in a similar scenario this week, but unlike last week, the threat is growing ominous the closer we get to the event. Friday and Saturday will offer some strong thunderstorms, starting in the Mississippi Valley on Friday, where there is already a 30% chance of severe weather, which suggests an enhanced or moderate risk is coming in future updates. Pay attention to this one.

130PM I should have noted in the earlier update that the outbreak looks to be multiple days. Saturday has a 30% bullseye over Alabama

Poughkeepsie, New York

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Poughkeepsie is definitely a candidate for the Geography Spelling Bee competition that I am starting. I am guessing that this forecast will come easier than the correct spelling and pronunciation of the town.

At 1053AM, ET, Poughkeepsie was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with clear skies. It was warm across downstate New York and the surrounding areas, despite a northwest breeze, thanks to the sun this morning, and a split jet which is producing inclement weather to the south, but barricading cold air to the north.
The wave to the north is bearing a weak area of low pressure through eastern Canada. the associated cool front will sweep through New England noiselessly tomorrow in the early afternoon, after which an area of high pressure will slide into the mid-Atlantic. as a result, expect a tame, pleasant albeit cooler middle of the week in Poughkeepsie.
Tomorrow – Scattered clouds midday, High 65, low 37
Wednesday – Sunny and cooler, High 48, Low 35

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 66, Low 33
Wednesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine (Late rain).  High 51, low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and warm; elevated fire risk due to gusty winds and low humidity High 65, Low 31
Wednesday – Cooler with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 50, Low 33

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 39
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 32

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 63, low 38
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Much cooler High 46, Low 38

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 40
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 48, Low 34

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 35
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 55, Low 31

The GFS is keeping a laggard band of precipitation behind the front that the main models have in place. The NAM doesn’t have much of anything, and given the system to the south, that seems more accurate. Sorry, Weather Channel. I don’t like your chances. I do like Weatherbug’s new user interface though! Very nice.
Satellite shows a channel of sunny skies, right over Poughkeepsie,

Blessedly calm

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The weather in California is pretty reliable. It’s often warm, sometimes hot, with a lot of sun, and some splashes of rain. When winter rolls around, interior California gets huge amounts of snow, which later water the Central Valley with the melt in the summer. But then, when things go off kilter, you get killer heat waves and fires, or rain that falls nearer the coast and causes flash flooding and land slides. We had a forecast for San Luis Obispo last month and I’m happy to say that the nastiest it got was some morning fog, which was quickly scoured out with a steady morning breeze. Accuweather had the top forecast, which had some temperature error thanks to a chilly morning low, but ultimately everyone is glad for a couple of nice days where the only complaint might be a few minutes of fog.
Actuals: February 24th, High 73, Low 45
February 25th, High 77, Low 54

Grade: B-D

Updates 3/9

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2:37PM Only one severe storm ongoing right now, headed for Freeport, Florida. You’ll see it coming…. There is a LOT of lightning

827PM Storms are ongoing in the southeastern United States, but nothing is severe right now. There might not be anything severe until late this week, when storms in the Mississippi Valley could be widespread.

1055PM To tell you how far from significant weather we are tonight, I’ve encountered quite a bit of conversation on the storm at the end of the week. The storms in the Mississippi Valley, yes, but a wintry mix in the northern Plains will be difficult Friday to Saturday. But we’ve got time.