Our forecast for Lincoln netted a very good forecast. Given that this happened even with rain on both the 24th and 25th, I can safely say that a forecast that worked out this well would only happen in the summer. An oscillating boundary lingered near Lincoln, with another round of low pressure sneaking to the north, bringing the showers. This is typically a recipe for a botched forecast, this many moving parts, but it’s summertime! Accuweather won the day with only one degree of error, and across the board, there weren’t many problems. Actuals: June 24th, .31″ of rain, High 82, Low 71 June 25th, .49″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 93, Low 72
9:03PM Now a few days out, there are 5 confirmed tornadoes from Carver County over the weekend, along with three in southwestern Minnesota, where they were certainly more photogenic.
As noted on Facebook over the weekend, there was a tornado in the namesake town for this site, Victoria, Minnesota. It occurred in the middle of the night Saturday into Sunday morning, which is an incredibly dangerous time to endure severe weather, and the storm did track through a couple of neighborhoods. Fortunately, the damage to structures was minimal, and there were no injuries reported because of the storm.
Contrary to my initial thoughts, seen in the Facebook post, the NWS surveyed two twisters, following a similar path to what was charted above. You can see their official survey, which involved investigators on the ground and drones, on top of the real time evaluation and storm reports that I used.
While the storm did cause tree damage, and some light damage to homes, including where trees fell on them or siding was ripped off, the twisters also spend quite a bit of time in open fields, Carver Park Nature Reserve and especially over Lakes. While the shoreline areas obviously sustained some damage, the fact that the cells passed over, by my count 6 different lakes really limited the human toll storms in a metro area could have taken.
9:42AML It’s been a wild start to spring, and it is going to be wet soon again, but today and tomorrow are mostly going to be recovery days. Flashflood warnings in Ohio will air out. Maybe a few severe storms in the mid-Atlantic, but nothing widespread, and even less tomorrow. Then we’ll start ramping up again. Sorry.
10:42PM – One thing we don’t see enough of that we get to enjoy tonight? Rain on the west coast, even as June turns to July. A band of showers is rolling through southern Oregon, giving the area a healthy drink.
There are a surprising number of large cities in Ohio, and I’m not sure that most people are aware of all of them. Sandusky is the third largest, just on the shore of Lake Erie, however if you are familiar with Cedar Point Amusement Park, you probably have heard of Sandusky.
At 455PM, ET, Sandusky was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees with overcast conditions. There was a smattering of thunderstorms across Ohio, Michigan and Lake Erie, including a few that were producing severe hail. The nearest was a storm about 20 miles south of Sandusky, drifting to the southeast. This was all a part of a slow moving warm front across the Great Lakes, which was keeping the area from the historic heatwave in the Eastern US, but also allowing for the severe storms. The pattern in the northern Plains, at least over the lower levels, will continue to be unsettled, but the jet structure is going to lift north and away from there. The instability in the Plains will work with the heat and humidity under the jet ridge in the east, lifting north and continuing to bring thunderstorms to the Sandusky area. A surface trough will drift through the area late on Friday, bringing the best chance of thunderstorms. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 85, Low 73 Friday – Partly cloudy, a few afternoon and evening storms, High 88, Low 75
TWC: Tomorrow – Sun and clouds mixed with a slight chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Hgh 86, Low 71 Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible. High 91, Low 75
AW: Tomorrow – Warm and very humid with a thunderstorm in the area; cloudy in the morning, then times of sun and clouds in the afternoon High 86, Low 71 Friday – Very warm and humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in a couple of spots in the afternoon High 89, Low 73
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 72 Friday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 74
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers. High 85, Low 75 Friday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 76
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and a chance of storms, High 86, Low 72 Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and a chance of storms, High 89, Low 74
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 90, Low 73 Friday – Light rain showers, High 93, Low 75
Clime is going on the warm side, even tomorrow. Here is a look at the radar, with that storm to the south of Sandusky.
Victoria-Weather posted the best forecast for Pueblo a couple of weeks ago, if you conveniently forget a 36 minute stretch on the afternoon of the 12th. V-W topped all other outlets when we just talked about the temperatures. But there was a brief spit of rain on the afternoon of the 12th, which crashed V-W all the way to 6th place, and instead handed a victory to Accuweather and the National Weather Service, who converged on the same score. Actuals: June 11th, High 91, Low 54 June 12th, .01 inches of rain, High 91, Low 53
I once had a first generation GPS in my vehicle that pronounced both L’s in the name “Lincoln” and now I can’t say it any other way. Thanks, technology.
At 118PM, CT, Lincoln was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 80 degrees. The passage of a cool front was imminent. The leading gust front was already south of town – Beatrice was reporting 91 degrees — though the cold front itself was highlighted by a band of showers from Tekamah to Hastings, and temperatures behind the front were in the 60s. The boundary is associated with low pressure headed towards Hudson Bay, along a jet that is not expected to start moving. A heat dome on the east coast is holding things at bay in the Plains, so the boundary north of Lincoln will merely oscillate and fade in southeastern Nebraska. Given it’s position today, there may be some strong thunderstorms tonight in the Lincoln area, but the window is closing quickly. Tomorrow, the remnant boundary may lead to a few showers. A trough in the Desert Southwest will help push the surface boundary north by mid-week, and Lincoln will be hot and drier on Wednesday afternoon, despite some shower threat on Wednesday morning. The jet itself will remain in place, and gusty winds will be seen throughout the period. Tomorrow – Scattered showers early and storms in the afternoon, High 83, Low 70 Wednesday – Lingering showers in the morning, then clearing and hot, High 94, Low 73
TWC: Tomorrow – A few showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 83, Low 69 Wednesday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 84, Low 72
AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sunshine with a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm, especially late; humid; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds High 82, Low 71 Wednesday – Partly sunny, breezy and warmer; a thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 92, Low 72
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 10am, then showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 70 Wednesday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny High 95, Low 72
WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely. A chance of thunderstorms in the morning then thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 79, Low 71 Wednesday – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid High 91, Low 72
WN: tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers and scattered storms, High 87, Low 70 Wednesday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 95, Low 72
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 84, Low 70 Wednesday – Thunderstorm, High 93, Low 72
I think a lot of people are looking at that band of showers, representing the cold front, and willing it to keep moving further and further south. It’s hot out east!
Our next forecasts will take us through the beginning of summer. I’m going to tell you that it means we are going to see some warm temperatures, and not just because one of our forecasts is for Phoenix.
Sandusky, Ohio
Fort Smith, Arkansas Road Trip from Fort Collins, Colorado to Fort Smith
