Rarely do we see a day in which forecasts across the board grade out at an A for everyone. It’s unheard of for a couple of days that were as miserable as they were in Durham a couple days before Halloween. Temperatures lingered in the 50s, suppressed by a feature moving through the Carolinas and smothering the region with rain and wind. On the 28th, the winds gusted to nearly 40mph to go along with the 3/4″ of rain. The weather was miserable, but the weather followed along with what everyone anticipated. This meant this was a three way draw between Victoria-Weather, The Weather Channel and Accuweather. Everyone crowded behind us in a well fought, well done forecast battle. Actuals: October 28th, .76″ of rain, High 51, Low 48 October 29th, .07″ of rain, High 57, low 48
With the newly advertised atmospheric river coming for the Pacific Northwest, there stands to be a bit more interesting weather eventually trickling into the High Plains of Colorado. But how soon?
At 856PM, MT, Greeley was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 43 degrees. Greeley was a pit on the temperature map, as Fort Collins to the west and Fort Morgan to the east were both still in the 50s, while Greeley aligned more with Cheyenne and Laramie, where it had tarted to cool down. Flow is fairly calm, however there is a stream of high clouds showing up south of Denver. The jet fostering low pressure will eventually emerge in the central Rockies, and dig into the high pressure in the Plains. Low pressure will begin to organize in Montana, drawing more warm, dry air through Greeley. With low pressure organizing so far north, there is no threat for rain in the Greeley area. Tomorrow – Fair skies, High 67, Low 30 Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 28
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 66, Low 31 Thursday – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. High 68, Low 31
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and not as warm but pleasant High 66, Low 31 Thursday – Mostly sunny and windy High 69, Low 29
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 65, Low 32 Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 67, Low 34
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 38 Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 65, Low 36
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 35 Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 67, Low 36
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny High 65, Low 31 Thursday – Partly cloudy High 68, Low 30
It’s such a wildcard this time of year in the High Plains and Front Range. The forecasts are all pretty similar, which means we are all going to be wrong in the same way. Satellite shows a few clouds tonight, generally to the south.
I have a general rule of thumb in the winter. I won’t believe it is done snowing until it is actually done snowing. If there are flurries, I’m just going to keep those flurries in the forecast. There are thermodynamic reasons for this that maybe I can get into at another time. Those thermodynamic reasons don’t apply to light rain showers, but perhaps I should have heeded that “just leave it in the forecast” ethos when forecasting for Elkhart last month. Rain looked like it was on the way out of town when I produced the forecast, but it didn’t leave on Thursday the 23rd, as I assumed it would. It also didn’t leave on Friday, which more of us didn’t think was the future in Elkhart. This soggy end of the week was best handled by the National Weather Service, who collected a forecast win. Actuals October 23rd: .07″ of rain, High 51, Low 37 October 24th, .02″ of rain, High 53, Low 34
3:57PM: Time for an advisory, if you need it: it’s November now, which means you need to start reviewing the WPC page for the heavy snowfall outlooks, as well as weaning off the SPC and NHC. Thank you, and apologies.
7:32PM: More from the WPC: All that incoming snow in the Pacific Northwest has been ascribed the atmospheric river label. It’s going to be snowy!
11:13PM: All this about the cooler weather inbound, I would be remis if I didn’t point out … It’s going to be warmer than normal for a healthy chunk of the country this week.
2:50PM: See how the clouds are kind of ribbed throughout New England? Well, that means it is quite windy across the region, at the level at which the clouds lie. I can tell you it is fairly breezy at the surface, as well.
9:10PM: The wind that was evident in the image above is also responsible for bringing in quite a bit of chilly air. There are actually frost advisories tonight as far south as North Carolina.
Burlington started its life called “Company Shops” because the railroads started the town as a spot to service trains in North Carolina. As railroads merged and the trains that used Company Shops put their work elsewhere, residents decided to rename the town. They picked the name “Burlington”…. naming the town after a passing train.
At 1059PM, ET, Burlington was reporting rain and low overcast. The temperature was 52 degrees. In the wake of a coastal feature that brought the region rain yesterday, another rain maker is moving out of the Tennessee Valley tonight. In this case, the area of low pressure is starting to move to the north, and an occluded cold front will be responsible for the rain overnight tonight. Because of the occlusion, the post-frontal cooldown will not be dramatic. The rain will end through the late morning, with drier air and a bit of sunshine then filtering back into the picture. High pressure will build in, giving the region a much needed break from the rain. Tomorrow – Rain early, then clearing, High 62, Low 48 Friday – Sunny, High 58, low 43
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early, becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon (AM Rain) High 62, Low 49 Friday – Sunny skies. High 62, Low 43
AW: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, clouds breaking for some sun (AM Rain) High 62, Low 49 Friday – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, plenty of sun; cool for trick-or-treating High 60, Low 41
NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, (AM rain) High 62, Low 49 Friday – Sunny, High 62, Low 42
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning. High 62, Low 49 Friday – Sunny. High 59, Low 45
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy (early rain) High 62, Low 49 Friday – Sunny, High 62, Low 42
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 62, low 48 Friday – Sunny, High 61, Low 42
Well, if the high tomorrow isn’t 62 degrees, I think I’m going to have to talk to someone. Pretty rainy tonight, but I did forget that Friday is Halloween, and that looks like a good night for Trick or Treating.
7:15PM: We are headed towards Halloween at the end of the week, and whether you like it or not, the weather looks to be on the warm side for a lot of the country. The core of the most above normal warmth looks to be around the Rockies, where Salt Lake City is looking at temperatures around 60 degrees. Trick or Treat!
8:15PM Hurricane Melissa’s eye has cleared Jamaica. The storm has been weakened a bit, but is still a strong storm, now readying to landfall in eastern Cuba. Melissa will weaken further over Cuba, and then will impact the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands.
Durham is one of the three members of the “Research Triangle” in eastern North Carolina, and is famous also for being the home of Duke University, who have historically had a strong basketball program.
At 815PM, ET, Durham was reporting a temperature of 52 degrees with rain. There was an area of low pressure off the coast of South Carolina, and to say the least, it has been a robust rain producer, and almost the entire state east of the mountains was experiencing rain this evening. The feature is associated with a robust seasonal jet stream, and will shift into the north Atlantic, where it will help to establish a steering mechanism to keep Hurricane Melissa away from the US mainland. The pattern across the US is quite active this week. While rain will diminish by late on Tuesday, but a deeper digging trough with it’s own area of surface low pressure will be sliding through the southern US. By Wednesday, the stalled boundary associated with the low in the Atlantic will link with the rising warm front, bringing rain back into the forecast for the morning. Wednesday will see temperatures pop a bit, with some thunderstorms coming in after sunset. Tomorrow – Showers through the day, High 50, Low 47 Wednesday – Rain early, then some thunder late, High 58, Low 48
TWC: Tomorrow – Rain, High 51, Low 48 Wednesday – Considerable cloudiness with occasional rain showers. High 56, Low 46
AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and cool with rain High 51, Low 46 Wednesday – Occasional rain and drizzle in the morning followed by periods of rain and a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 57, Low 47
NWS: Tomorrow – Rain. High 52, Low 47 Wednesday – Rain likely before 8am, then showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Cloudy, High 58, Low 47
WB: Tomorrow – Rain. High 53, Low 48 Wednesday – Rain likely with areas of drizzle in the morning then showers likely in the afternoon High 55, Low 47
WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with showers, High 52, Low 47 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with rain likely, High 58, Low 47
CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 51, Low 47 Wednesday – Rain Showers, High 55, Low 47
Sorry, Durham. Wish I had better news for you. Look at all this rain!
We assembled a forecast for Dover ahead of the Nor’Easter that shook up the East Coast earlier this month. Yeah, it rained, sure temperatures came down, but I really wanted to see what the wind registered at. It gusted to nearly 40MPH on Sunday the 12th! After the hatches were properly battened, we could appreciate a good clustering of forecasts. Ultimately, the National Weather Service narrowly overcame the other outlets. Actuals: October 11th, .11 inches of rain, High 69, Low 52 October 12th, .43 inches of rain, High 66, Low 57
