A taste of December

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We transitioned to December in the midst of our forecast period in Florence, Alabama, and for Alabama, anyways, it felt like the season was changing. Overnight lows were below freezing both on the 30th and 1st, and that’s a chill you just can’t shake if you aren’t used to it, even if the high temperature ranges up to the mid-50s, and the sun is shining in the afternoon. The brisk weather in Alabama was brisk business for Victoria-Weather, who had a top notch forecast and won the day.
Actuals: November 30th – High 52, Low 34
December 1st – High 55, Low 30

Grade: A-D

You call that a cold front?

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You may have been a party to the nasty Thanksgiving Day weather from the Great Lakes to the New England, but Fort Smith got in on the action before it was cool — Quite literally. The feature originated in the middle of the country, and in it’s infancy, only ha a weak cold pool that barely stirred things up in the Ozarks on Monday. There iwas a splash of rain, but the high on Monday was nearly exactly the same as it was on Tuesday. Of course, the overnight lows shifted by a dozen degrees (Keeping in mind that the low listed for Monday was at the end of the day, rather than at dawn as it usually is), and it was in the 70s on Sunday, so there was a bit of a sea change for Fort Smith. It didn’t get as cold as it would elsewhere, and the moisture was much less than it was for points northeastward. Victoria-Weather had a pretty good forecast to take home the victory
Actuals: Monday .01 inches of rain, High 58, Low 39
Tuesday – High 58, Low 32

Grade: A-C

Ah, how things change

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It’s 8 days since we put together the forecast for Midland, and I can tell you that most of the country is now much cooler than it was last week. The 80 degrees I see in the forecast verification are of a bygone era. It’s in the 50s now in Midland. Proving that things are constantly changing, though, Midland will be back up in the 8os this weekend. The forecast from last Thursday was fairly simple, with warm air, and warming overnight lows to start the weekend. Decent forecasts were had by all, the best came from Weatherbug.
Actuals: Friday – High 80, Low 46
Saturday – High 80, Low 57

Grade: A-B

The right side of the range

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This is a purely subjective take, that Carson City was on the right side of the Sierra Nevada range at the end of the week. I am not a big fan of snow, and most of it fell on the western exposures during our Thursday – Friday forecast. There were trace amounts of precipitation in Carson City during our forecast period, but the heavier activity was up by Lake Tahoe. You know, where snow lovers can keep it to themselves. Rain started falling in Carson City just before midnight which really threw things askance for our forecast grades, and ultimately led to a shared victory between the unlikely duo of Weatherbug and WeatherNation.
Actuals: Thursday – rain reported, not measured, High 55, Low 37
Friday – Mix reported, not measured, High 41, low 30

Grade C-D

Dingy fall days

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I was talking to someone in St. Louis today, and he was lamenting how gray it has been for a couple of days now. I lamented the same to him, here in the Twin Cities. What do you know, Cedar Rapids is right between the two! To be fair, Tuesday was sunny in Cedar Rapids, and likely felt pretty OK in the sun. The sun was not to be found on Wednesday, though, replaced by clouds, afternoon rain and cooler temperatures. Forecasts for Cedar Rapids turned out pretty well, none better than Accuweather’s.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 51, Low 31
Wednesday – .11 inches of rain High 48, Low 36

Grade A-C

The downward trajectory

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It wasn’t well modeled in Champaign over the weekend, but perhaps it should have been more closely monitored. Temperatures after a weak cold front moved through overnight Saturday into Sunday fell off fairly quickly Sunday night. I think most of us anticipated more clouds, or simply weren’t in on guidance’s plans, so Sunday lows were too warm, across the board. Also off were the precipitation forecasts for a couple of outlets. It did continue to rain on Sunday morning, nearly a quarter inch, which Accuweather and Clime didn’t have in their forecast. This hurt Accuweather the most, as it cost them victory for the day, instead handing it to us, Victoria-Weather.
Actuals: Saturday, .43 inches of rain, High 56, Low 44
Sunday .2 inches of rain, High 67, Low 43

Grade: C-D

An overstated threat

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Weather information receivers, the general public, expects perfection for their specific spot every time. That said, everyone had forecast for rain in the Quad Cities on Saturday. We knew in spots it would be heavy, and nearly everyone called that out. The Upper Mississippi Valley indeed saw some showers, but it was only .06″ worth of rain in Davenport, though places around there saw more. Is it a problem, then, that they didn’t see more in Davenport, when most outlets suspected it? Probably for some people. Not for me, either. The Weather Channel had the top forecast.
Actuals: Friday – High 65, Low 35
Saturday .06″ of rain, High 54, Low 41

Grade: A-C

A grand unveiling

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It was very foggy the last two mornings in Rocky Mount. Tuesday, the sky didn’t clear until nearly 11, but on Wednesday, it cleared a bit earlier. All this led to a warmer afternoon high, and the all important Vitamin D infusion. There was no rain, despite a little bit of moisture flowing in, all of which brought about the morning fog. Accuweather had rain in the forecast, and despite this, the temperature forecast was good enough to give them the victory.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 79, Low 51
Wednesday, High 82, Low 53

Grade: A-C

Cool consistency

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It’s not often I get to put together a forecast for Phoenix and the high comes nowhere near double digits, but that was the cast this week. Temperatures rose only to the low 70s under a strong upper level trough, and the low were as cool as the low 50s. Each day was a near carbon copy of the other one, so that consistent Phoenix forecast strategy worked wonders, even as temperatures were much cooler than one would normally anticipate in the Arizona capital. It was Weatherbug who put together the top forecast for the day, and a good one it was.
Actuals: Monday – High 72, Low 52
Tuesday – High 73, Low 51

Grade: A-B

Results from Wisconsin

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Racine was a rainy place on election day. There was lighter fare on Monday as well, but 3/4″ of rain came to the southeast Wisconsin city on Tuesday, which really put a damper on things in the state. Cold air moved in behind the rain this morning, leading to a foggy situation in the northern Plains. Also, it slowed the cooldown across Wisconsin, with the low temperature for Tuesday settling about halfway between what the outlets who have extended hourly temperature outlooks and those that don’t had for their Tuesday low. This was a boon for the Weather Channel, who narrowly won the forecast, having only 1 degree of error elsewhere.
Actuals: Tuesday – .17 inches of rain, High 67, Low 58
Wednesday – .78 inches of rain, High 67, low 56

Grade: B-C