Succumbing to the storms

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The end of July and beginning of August was a particularly stormy time for the north central US. It wasn’t all bad though, because it sure wiped out the heat wave that had buffeted the country. In Danville, temperatures on the 30th were near 90. After storms rolled through overnight, the 31st saw a high temperature of only 75. The dew point was still fairly warm, but that’s significantly more comfortable (were it not for the lingering smoke from the Canadian wildfires.) Never fear, summer isn’t over yet, and it is getting hot once again. The Weather Channel never cooled off, and won their third forecast in a row.
Actuals: July 30th, .02″ of rain, High 89, Low 69
July 31st, .29″ of rain, High 75, Low 64

Grade: A-C

Pretty chilly, actually

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We put together a forecast for Phoenix in the middle of the month, and we were looking for a very hot couple of days in Arizona. Fortunately for local residents, it was colder than expected by all outlets on both the 14th and 15th! That’s right, it was only 106 on both days! The Weather Service won the day.
Actuals: July 14th, High 106, Low 91
July 15th, High 106, Low 88

Grade B-C

A city and a forecast underwater

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The thing about summer thunderstorms is that they are often slowly paced and if there is any sort of larger scale forcing, the storms can really dump the rain. That happened in Fort Smith, which was ultimately brought the misfortune of constant clouds and steady thunderstorms through the day on July 8th. Not only did this soak the city, but the highs in the 90s were nowhere to be found. Highs in the 80s were nowhere to be found, for that matter. The steady threat of storms allowed highs only to reach 78 on that Tuesday. It was a much cooler day than expected, and particularly cooler than most of Arkansas, but they did get an inch and a half for rain. It a a tough forecast overall, but NWS came through the best, having the coolest numbers for the 8th.
Actuals: July 7th, .18″ of rain High 95, Low 75
July 8th: 1.67″ of rain, High 78, Low 72

Grade: C-D

Untouched

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A tough thing about summer when scattered showers or storms are in the forecast, is that if you have them in and they don’t happen, your temperature forecast is likely to be pretty far off as well. This was the case in Sandusky at the end of June, when everyone had showers and storms in the forecast for both Thursday and Friday. Didn’t happen save for a splash on Thursday the 26th, and temperatures soared into the 90s, leaving everyone with frightful numbers. Clime was the warmest outlet, and ended up securing the easy victory. Way to hedge your bets, Clime!
Actuals: June 26th, .01 inches of rain, High 91, Low 75
June 27th, High 93, Low 73

Grade: B-C

Near perfection

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Our forecast for Lincoln netted a very good forecast. Given that this happened even with rain on both the 24th and 25th, I can safely say that a forecast that worked out this well would only happen in the summer. An oscillating boundary lingered near Lincoln, with another round of low pressure sneaking to the north, bringing the showers. This is typically a recipe for a botched forecast, this many moving parts, but it’s summertime! Accuweather won the day with only one degree of error, and across the board, there weren’t many problems.
Actuals: June 24th, .31″ of rain, High 82, Low 71
June 25th, .49″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 93, Low 72

Grade: A-B

Destroyed by drops

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Victoria-Weather posted the best forecast for Pueblo a couple of weeks ago, if you conveniently forget a 36 minute stretch on the afternoon of the 12th. V-W topped all other outlets when we just talked about the temperatures. But there was a brief spit of rain on the afternoon of the 12th, which crashed V-W all the way to 6th place, and instead handed a victory to Accuweather and the National Weather Service, who converged on the same score.
Actuals: June 11th, High 91, Low 54
June 12th, .01 inches of rain, High 91, Low 53

Grade: B-D

The misty mountains

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Our forecast in Dalton earlier this month was within a string of potentially stormy days for the southeast. Just because of how the topography works, and the inflow of moisture isn’t as robust further north, away from the Gulf. But the moisture did reach to Dalton, importantly, because not everyone expected it to, not both the 4th and the 5th, and in a couple of cases, not on either day. Rain fall was very light, but a mismanaged precipitation forecast ended up securing the victory for the Weather Service.
Actuals: June 4th, .01″ of rain, High 85, Low 69
June 5th, High .02″ of rain, High 84, Low 65

Grade: B, D

Smoke from a distant fire

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Much of the upper Midwest, in addition to being off to a fairly cool start to June, has also offered up respiratory distress for many of it’s residents. Canadian wild fire smoke has plagued the region, thanks to a northerly regime and some light intermittent showers bringing the smoke aloft down to the surface. The first day of June, coincidentally the second day of our forecast period in Green Bay was the first really impactful day of the smoke for many locations. It has been a bit worse further to the west from Green Bay, but the north wind and diffused sunlight ensured that temperatures didn’t spike despite the sunshine. There was a three way tie at the top of the forecast charts. The National Weather Service and WeatherNation had the same forecast, so naturally were a part of the tie, but Victoria-Weather came about it a different way and still ended up in the three way knot.
Actuals: May 31st, High 73, Low 43
June 1st, High 74, Low 42

Grade: B-C

When May was May

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For those that may not recall, this past week in the mid-Atlantic has been a fairly miserable one by May standards. Temperatures were cool, it has been rainy and there was the looming specter of severe weather. Before all that got underway, there was a forecast for Vineland, New Jersey. It was a warm end to the weekend, with the beginning of the week preparing south Jersey for the looming gloom. The top spot belonged to Victoria-Weather, despite being the only outlet to have rain in the forecast, only to have it not materialize
Actuals: May 11th, High 81, Low 48
May 12th, High 78, Low 51

Grade: A-C

A cooker on the Rio Grande

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I understand that it is only May, and a relatively tame one at that, but 90 degrees is still hot. That’s what was seen in Laredo last weekend, the verifying time of our recent forecast for the border town. Laredo was west of a broad, ambiguous area of low pressure, which meant that they were receiving a north wind, and were still over 90 by Sunday. This went about as well as planned for the meteorologists with a vested interest, and The Weather Channel and WeatherNation tied atop the leaderboard (because they had the same forecast).
Actuals: Saturday High 87, Low 67
Sunday, High 90, Low 64

Grade: A-B