A rare occasion

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It truly is an honor to say that we were there when we forecast for rain in central California, and it verified accurately. Indeed, our forecast in Hanford did verify with a half inch of rain on Monday and Tuesday, which most outlets had figured correctly. The biggest area of difference was the low temperature on Tuesday, which was a few degrees warmer than anticipated. All told, a pretty good forecast, considering the location and the fact that there was actually weather. Victoria-Weather and WeatherNation combined for the victory.
Actuals: Monday .46 inches of rain, High 60, Low 46
Tuesday .02 inches of rain, High 60, Low 44

Grade: B-C

Can’t miss everything

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The end of the week was a stormy time for a great chunk of the country. And it all started popping off juuuuuuuust to the east of St. Joseph, Missouri, where the early afternoon on Friday brought a little bit of rain and a few gusts to start things off, but that was it. Well, almost. They also got the cold air behind the front. That’s where the real surprise came. St. Joseph reported a trace of snow late on Saturday. That was not on anyone’s bingo board. The National Weather Service had the top forecast for the storm kickoff.
Actuals: Friday -.04 inches of rain, High 79, Low 57
Saturday – .04 inches of liquid in snow, High 59, Low 34

Grade: C

All hail the NAM

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We looked at Poughkeepsie, New York at the beginning of the week. The town was in a clear patch between two systems. The northern system was robbed of moisture by the southern feature, and everyone but the Weather Channel and the GFS believed that Poughkeepsie would see dry skies, and everyone but the Weather Channel and the GFS were correct. It was dry in the atmosphere on Tuesday, which led to a wider temperature delta than was expected. Scores weren’t great, but Accuweather earned a win.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 70, Low 29
Wednesday – High 48, Low 35

Grade: C-D

Blessedly calm

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The weather in California is pretty reliable. It’s often warm, sometimes hot, with a lot of sun, and some splashes of rain. When winter rolls around, interior California gets huge amounts of snow, which later water the Central Valley with the melt in the summer. But then, when things go off kilter, you get killer heat waves and fires, or rain that falls nearer the coast and causes flash flooding and land slides. We had a forecast for San Luis Obispo last month and I’m happy to say that the nastiest it got was some morning fog, which was quickly scoured out with a steady morning breeze. Accuweather had the top forecast, which had some temperature error thanks to a chilly morning low, but ultimately everyone is glad for a couple of nice days where the only complaint might be a few minutes of fog.
Actuals: February 24th, High 73, Low 45
February 25th, High 77, Low 54

Grade: B-D

One of the last cold snaps

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In the wake of the same system that brought flurries that lingered for Sandusky, cold air spilled into Ohio Valley. Temperatures in Columbus, Indiana, for example, struggled to get out of the 20s on Friday, which meant all of our forecasts came in too warm. Things sorted themselves out a bit better on Saturday though, so the real tough spot was the first day. The Weather Channel had the best time of it on Friday, and that led to their victory for the day
Actuals: Friday – High 28, Low 15
Saturday – High 36, Low 14

Grade B-C

Flurries that won’t stop

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An under reported facet of the weather and forecasting in general is the wind direction. It stands a bit more at the forefront when lake effect snow is at play, as it was in Sandusky. The snow that was in the forecast lingered until the early afternoon on Friday, despite thoughts it would conclude on Thursday. Nobody had the snow right, so it came down to temperatures, and Victoria-Weather took the victory.
Actuals: Thursday – Snow reported, not measured, High 25, Low 14
Friday – Snow reported, not measured, High 30, Low 21

Grade – C-D

An icy weekend

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I have to believe that most football fans in Southeast Pennsylvania were happy with the way the Super Bowl turned out on Sunday. I bet they barely noticed in Lebanon that over a 10th of an inch of ice coated light snow through the region on Friday. Everyone, somehow, pegged the snow and ice, so it came down to the thermometer, where the differentiator was a warm day on Friday. Accuweather and WeatherBug took a share of the win.
Actuals: Friday – High 41, Low 31
Saturday – .33 inches of liquid in snow and ice, High 32, Low 24

Grade: C-D

The trouble with the mountains

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A fun thing about forecasting in the foothills of the Rockies is that it’s tough to say with certainty exactly how your forecast is going to be off. You know that something will go sideways, but what, exactly? In the instance of Colorado Springs, it was our forecast lows on both Saturday and Sunday. We all saw clear overnight skies, which should have meant chilly morning lows. Alas, it was not to be. There were favorable winds for warming up the region, especially some howling southerlies on Sunday, and the cool temperature ended up a full 10 degrees warmer than most forecasts. Colorado springs embarrassed most outlets, but The Weather Channel held on for a W.
Actuals: Saturday, High 52, Low 41
Sunday, High 59, Low 41

Grade: C-F

The same verifications

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It seems that this winter, more than normal, we as a collective meteorological community are getting thrown off on our temperature forecasts. Clouds are being more pernicious, more influential than we’ve been properly anticipating. Such as it was in New Orleans, and it was in Holland before that. Clouds really held off a cool down last Monday in the Big Easy, but then, the temperatures plummeted on Tuesday as those clouds really prevented the afternoon warm up. It wasn’t the slow steady progression anyone expected, though I can confirm that after our forecast was over, things started to get back to normal in New Orleans. We’re still awaiting normal for the weather forecasters. It was a tight race, even if not a proud one, and the NWS got the wins.
Actuals: Monday – .02 inches of rain High 65, Low 52
Tuesday – High 56, Low 51

Grade C

That warm Lake breeze

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A stiff wind off of Lake Michigan in January isn’t often known for being terribly warm, but when it is accompanied by a thick overcast, strange things happen. This was how it went in Holland for our forecast at the beginning of the week. Temperatures were as warm as 40 on Monday, but they were accompanied by winds that gusted to nearly 50mph as well. That is brisk! The thick layer of overcast, particularly overnight that accompanied these howling winds were enough to keep the temperature from dropping off too significantly, which allowed for the base that lead to the warm days. In fact, the nearest NWS station was so warm that all precipitation there was reported as light rain, which went astray from every single one of our forecasts. I teased Clime for being so warm, but in the end, their robots claimed victory.
Actuals: Sunday, High 32, Low 25
Monday . 02 inches of rain, High 40, Low 30

Grade: C-D