Wet and wild in Wenatchee

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Late October was alive with nasty weather, and the Pacific Northwest was not spared. Despite it’s position on the drier side of the Cascades, even Wenatchee saw a rain/snow mix on Friday the 23rd. This was well anticipated, but the clouds that suppressed temperatures on Friday were not as well foreseen and sunk a few forecasts. The outlets that had cooler highs also correctly called for snow, and snagged the best scores. At the top of the heap was WeatherNation.
Actuals: Thursday 10/22, High 50, Low 36
Friday – .06 inches of precipitation for rain/snow, High 36, Low 31

Grade: B-C

A fall scorcher

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There is a continuing threat of wildfires in California, particularly in the northern part of the state, where despite a recent cool down for much of the country, hot weather, wind and dry conditions continued for California. Over the weekend of the 17th and 18th, temperatures in Santa Rosa spiked all the way to the 90s, even the upper 90s on that Saturday. Forecasters were anticipating some relief by the end of the forecast period, so everyone was a little low on their forecasts. The warmest outlet was Victoria-Weather, and we claimed victory on a miserable forecast for everyone — particularly residents of Santa Rosa.
Actuals: October 17th, High 97, Low 48
October 18th, High 91, Low 48

Grade: C-F

Autumn before the storm

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Two weekends ago, meteorologists were diligently watching the Gulf of Mexico in anticipation of the development of Tropical Storm Delta. Delta did develop into a hurricane and moved through the Mississippi Delta (no relation) and towards the Great Lakes. It was tough to think of the tropics before that in Atlanta, as the temperatures, particularly the morning lows around the 50 degree mark, were positively autumnal. The Weather Channel did earn victory on the forecast. They’ve been in Atlanta getting pumpkin spied lattes for a couple weeks now, and surely had some more intimate knowledge of the conditions.
Actuals: October 5th, High 77, Low 50
October 6th, High 79, Low 51

Grade: B-C

Still in practice

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There was a lot of weather to talk about in September, particularly in the tropics. I’m happy to report, however, that we were able to keep our touch for forecasting across the country. Forecasts for Bellingham were pretty unified across the board, and the verified weather at the end of September was a carbon copy from one day to another, but I can claim that Victoria-Weather was able to secure the victory all by ourselves, even if it was by the narrowest of margins.
Actuals: September 29th, High 74, Low 48
September 30th, High 74, Low 48

Grade: C

Not so far off

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An anomalous batch of cold air settled into the High Plains late last week, bring snow to Denver shortly after they saw triple digits. The cold air spread across the Front Range, and that included places as far south as the Mexican Border. The cold air hung on for a couple of days even in Las Cruces thanks to a cut off low in the region. The cooler forecasts prevailed on this forecast, which is not something you can say that often. Forecast.io nabbed the top forecast honors as the only outlet not to forecast precipitation on Thursday morning.
Actuals: Thursday – High 64, Low 49
Friday – High 73, Low 56

Grade: B – D

No secrets

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When forecasting for Santa Barbara, I speculated that the Weather Service knew something that the rest of us didn’t, as their high temperature forecast was several degrees warmer than the rest of the group. I’m here to say that the NWS had no inside information. Temperatures along the coast weren’t quite the furnace that they were inland, where fires have exploded in the last couple of days. That’s good news for Santa Barbara, but bad news for the Weather Service’s forecast. Accuweather had a very good forecast and won the day, which made the NWS look even worse.
Actuals: September 1st, High 72, Low 58
September 2nd, High 73, Low 54

Grade: A-D

Lukewarm for Louisville

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The Ohio Valley was afflicted by a low level perturbation as August wound down. This affliction was felt by our forecasters looking at Louisville. Generally, everyone was in the right ball park, but the temperatures didn’t trend in a particular direction or another to give any outlet in particular an advantage. Cloudy skies, especially overnight, kept low temperatures from getting too low, but the high minimums and just enough sunshine allowed the highs to trend into the high end of the outlook. Weathernation took home the victory, though not by much.
Actuals – 8/30 – High 81, Low 68
8/31 – .1 inches of rain, High 84, Low 69

Grade: C

Last gasps of summer

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East of the Rockies, we’re headed for a cool stretch through the middle of September. The end of August was quite the opposite, with the final throes of hot weather reaching as far north as Muskegon Bay. Bay City saw temperatures on August 21st and 22nd that climbed all the way up to the upper 80s. One last dance for summer time. It was a family affair, with Victoria-Weather, The Weather Service and Weathernation each grabbed a piece of the win.
Actuals: August 21 – High 88, Low 64
August 22 – High 89, Low 62

Grade: A-B

Rally!

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The Weather Channel didn’t have a great August, but they had a very good showing in Wheeling. Temperatures were in the mid 80s, with a sprinkle of thunderstorm activity late last week in the West Virginia northern Panhandle. The Weather Channel captured the forecast almost perfectly, bucking their recent trends.
Actuals: August 20th, High 84, Low 53
August 21st, .04 inches of rain, High 85, Low 61

Grade: A-C