A dose of spring

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One of the consistent complaints about spring is that it is all too short. It seems, in the minds of many people, that we often jump right from winter to summer with little transition. Late last week in Louisville, spring had come. Temperatures reached the low 60s under a pleasant sunny sky — the perfect spring time weather. Forecasts were all very similar (there was a 4 way tie in 3rd place) but two outlets had morning lows forecast to be a little bit warmer, and they were in the top two spots. Victoria-Weather came in second, but Weatherbug had a nearly perfect forecast to attain victory.
Actuals: Thursday – High 60, Low 43
Friday – High 65, Low 42

Grade: A-C

The wind howls through southwest Utah

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Southwest Utah isn’t a terribly rainy spot, and when low pressure developed in the middle part of the state, the response in St. George certainly wasn’t rainfall. Instead, on Tuesday St. George reported gusts of over 40mph, which is certainly swift, and almost certainly laden with dust on the outskirts of town. Temperatures generally cooperated with forecasts, with warmer overnight lows on Tuesday really the only day over day change. We had a trio of outlets combine for the top forecast, with Weatherbug splitting the difference with the Weather Service and Weathernation, each of whom had their first victory of the year.
Actuals: Monday, High 80, Low 52
Tuesday – High 82, Low 55

Grade: B-C

Cooler air slogs into central Illinois

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A big blob of rain, with a few thunderstorms embedded within a big swirling low inched towards Decatur late last week. Since late Wednesday night, that rain has made it as far as the Great Lakes. So it rained in Decatur during our forecast period of Thursday and Friday, but the radar was less and less intense as time went on, and temperatures dropped off to become seasonable, and eventually, below normal. If there was a silver lining to all the clouds, it was that forecasts for the region were pretty good. Forecast.io gets top marks.
Actuals: Thursday – High .09 inches of rain, High 79, Low 60
Friday – .13 inches of rain, High 63, Low 51

Grade: A-C

Soggy start to April in Boston

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Our last post of March was actually a forecast that covered the first couple of days of April in Boston. I have to say, it is not weather that I would have enjoyed. After a very rainy start to the month on the 1st, temperatures struggled to even reach 40 on Friday the 2nd. If there was a silver lining, it certainly wasn’t for Bostonians, but rather for Victoria-Weather, who easily won the day.
Actuals: Thursday, April 1st, .98″ of rain, High 58, Low 36
Friday, April 2nd, High 40, Low 29

Grade: A-B

A District drenching

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March went out like a lion in the mid-Atlantic. A batch of low pressure that emerged from the Smokey Mountains invigorated some moisture in the region, and there was nearly an inch of rain in Washington on the last day of the month. With all those showers, the temperature dispersal was fairly minimal last Wednesday, The top forecast was held by Accuweather, who correctly foresaw the gloomy end to the month.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 69, low 46
Wednesday – .92 inches of rain, High 65, Low 56

Grade: B -C

A quick turn around

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A little over a week ago, we took a look at the weather in Sacramento, which was at the tail end of a nasty couple of days. The culprit was a broad area of low pressure that would end up moving into the southern Plains and bringing a tornado outbreak to the southeast late this week. Things bounced back very quickly after one last murky day on Thursday. The high temperatures jumped more than 10 degrees from Thursday to Friday, setting up a nice weekend. Accuweather grabbed a narrow victory.
Actuals: Thursday – High 58, Low 36
Friday – High 69, Low 35

Grade: B-C

All of the cold, none of the snow

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Last Wednesday, when we were looking at Colorado Springs, we checked out the radar. Flurry activity stayed in the Denver area, north of the Palmer Divide. This topographic barrier slowed precipitation, which was mighty, in the Denver area through the end of the week, as a nother round of wet weather descended upon the Plains. Mind you, it eventually did bring Colorado Springs quite a bit of nasty weather, but that was on the weekend, after the forecast period expired. There was a little spritz light wintry weather on Friday night, but not the deluge expected for late week by some outlets. Temperatures stayed much cooler than anticipated, which is a flaw that can show up in the Rockies. That’s just the way it goes. The Weather Channel was the top forecast, but it was rough.
Actuals: Thursday – High 38, Low 25
Friday – .03 inches of mixed precip, High 32, Low 27

Grade: B-F

Clear skies, crisp temperatures

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When you are working with clear skies in the Plains, you might expect to have a pretty easy forecast. Even with low pressure moving towards Topeka late in the forecast period last week, it was the first day of our forecast period that proved toughest. Those clear skies brought temperatures all the way down to 29 degrees by Wednesday morning, which was a solid 5 degrees colder than anyone prognosticated. The Weather Channel was the best aside from that blip that was on everyone’s ledger, as they accurately had the warmest high temperature forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 72, Low 29
Thursday – High 72, Low 30gradec

Grade: C – D

Waterlogged western Maryland

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I wrote recently about the flooding in eastern Kentucky and across West Virginia. Western Maryland, and specifically the city of Cumberland, for which we had a forecast last week, didn’t avoid the persistent soaking rains either. On the last day of February, Cumberland endured daylong rain that accumulated to over an inch. Fortunately, reports of flooding in Maryland weren’t as prolific, but this was enough rain to cause concern. Weatherbug was the top forecast for the end of the month.
Actuals: Saturday – .03 inches of rain, High 47, Low 25
Sunday – 1.21 inches of rain, High 47, Low 40

Grade: C-D

In the mix

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The end of February saw another, somewhat repetitive pattern, with perturbations emerging from the southern Plains and heading for the eastern Great Lakes. It happened more than once, including early last week when we were forecasting in Ocean City, New Jersey. It was about to rain on Sunday night when we looked at the forecast, and to the surprise of a few, that rain mixed with snow on Monday morning. It was more rain than snow, however, and nothing accumulated as the day wore on. Ultimately, it was a tied forecast win for Forecast.io and Victoria-Weather. I had a typo in my forecast, so I am ok letting FIO have the plaudits on this go-around.
Actuals: Monday – .46″ of rain, High 45, Low 31
Tuesday – High 51, Low 35

Grade: B-C