Passing showers pass by

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There was a threat of some showers cycling through south Texas on the back of tropical storm Karl, which was spinning down in the Bay of Campeche. Tropical storms, until the reach land, tend to draw moisture towards themselves, and this was the case in Brownsville in the middle of October. It was hot and dry in Brownsville for our forecast period, which led to a forecast victory for WeatherNation, which had the combined success of a their piggybacking off of the Weather Service’s temperature forecast, and their own foresight to leave rain out of the forecast.
Actuals: October 14th, High 92, Low 74
October 15th, High 91, Low 74

Grade: A – B

A few more clouds, a few more drips, a few less blankets

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The middle of October was a fairly quiet time for those interested in all things weather, so a little bit of a disturbance rippling from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley qualified as interesting. It certainly added intrigue to our forecast for Fayetteville, as it resulted in a smattering of rain on both days of the forecast period, and even more surprisingly, led to fairly warm overnight lows from the 10th to the 11th. The Weather Channel won because they had warmer lows on the 11th, but also were one of the only two outlets with rain in the forecast on both days of the period.
Actuals: October 10th, .01 inches of rain, High 76, Low 50
October 11th, .02 inches of rain, High 81, Low 68

Grade: C-D

Memories of NorCal

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Prepandemic, my wife and I went to Sonoma for a friend’s wedding. Not only did I end up underdressed for the wedding (it was very fancy, and I was not), but I was also underdressed for the weather. It was significantly colder than expected, and I simply didn’t have enough warm weather gear for the blustery winds and chilly air. Beautiful country though. At the end of September, we put together a forecast for Santa Rosa, not far from Sonoma, and I had some serious flashbacks. After a gorgeous day on September 30th, onshore flow brought more clouds and chilly north Pacific air into Santa Rosa. Temperature forecasts were warm by a matter of double digits. Not great! The Weather Channel picked up a victory, but not one to be proud.
Actuals: September 30th – High 88, Low 50
October 1st, High 65, Low 51

Grade: D

Same old New Orleans

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The weather in the Big Easy was hot and humid towards the end of September. The humidity was a real issue, with temperatures failing to dip below the 78 degree mark in either the 24th or the 25th. At least it didn’t rain though! Victoria-Weather saw our personal hot September fritter away with a cooler forecast and a forecast for rain, but Accuweather nabbed the victory in New Orleans.
Actuals: Saturday Sep 24th, High 92, Low 78
Sunday Sep 25th, High 91, Low 81

Grade: B-C

Divergent fortunes in Idaho Falls

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I spent quite a bit of time tweeting @Vic_WX as Hurricane Ian made landfall near Punta Gorda and Fort Myers, Florida. I suggest a follow for discussion on live and breaking news stories like Ian.

Last week, Idaho Falls was in the midst of a warm up that brought it close to record warmth for this time of year. With a trough off to the northwest, it seemed like these figures were about to change. How fast and how much was up for debate, though. Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel were on the right side of the debate, insisting that it would be “not very quickly” and “by about 5 degrees”. Actually, the issue for those that struggled with this forecast was a belief in more cloud cover for the area, and missed cold on the highs and warm on the lows. this warmth thanks to early sunshine and clear skies meanth much rainier storms when the clouds finally did fill in.
Actuals: 9/20 – High 84, low 42
9/21 – .68 inches of rain and thunderstorms, High 79, Low 45

Grade B-D

Cooler and comfortable

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Overnight lows in the 50s are like gifts, no matter where you are, but especially in a place like Gadsden, Alabama, where the persistent summertime humidity makes the nights cloying and hard to sleep through. This past weekend likely led to a lot of well rested residents, especially since manageable highs in the mid 80s should have meant a lot was accomplished during the day as well. Victoria-Weather can be proud of our accomplishment, earning the forecast victory.
Actuals: Saturday, High 85, Low 55
Sunday, High 86, Low 59

Grade: A-C

Summer claws back

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A fairly miserable little wave moved through the Great Lakes last week, bringing rain — too much in some instances — clouds and cooler weather throughout the region. It was a rather unpleasant weekend. By midweek, summer was ready to make a comeback, and nowhere appreciated that like Battle Creek. After a weekend of drear, temperatures were back up to 80 by Wednesday. Nice! Forecast.io had the forecast victory, thanks to that nice weater.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 73, Low 47
Wednesday – High 80, Low 55

Grade:B-C

A break in the right direction

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It seems to this Midwestern forecaster that lately, and especially in the summer, temperatures always sneak past the forecast highs. Apparently, that’s not how it works in northern Alabama! Temperatures failed to surpass 90 in HuntsvHuntsville, Alabamaille as August turned to September, and on the 1st, the low temperature dipped below 60. You can almost sleep in those temperatures! Unbound by our preconceived biases, Forecast.io did not fall into the too warm trap and had the top forecast.
Actuals: August 31st, High 89, Low 64
September 1st, High 89, Low 59

Grade: A – C

A clearing breeze

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My forecast for Benton Harbor was colored by my camping experience upstream the days before the forecast. I was in southeastern Minnesota, mired in cool, cloudy conditions for the weekend, and seeing the same satellite set up over Benton Harbor, I hedged towards the cooler end of things. My mistake. Breezes of over 15 miles an hour were enough of a steering flow, apparently, to clear things out, and allow the warning other outlets foresaw. The Weather Service grabbed a solo victory in this instance.
Actuals: Monday – High 78, Low 61
Tuesday – High 81, Low 57

Grade: A-C

An unclenching grasp

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There were some signals of cooler weather coming to Winston-Salem last week. A cold front north of the Appalachians, moist flow and overcast from the Atlantic, and the midst of summer’s dog days. The previous several days had been quiet warm, however, and clouds were slow in filling in across the region. Persistence paid off, and warmer forecasters collected the top spots. Victoria-Weather, Accuweather and the Weather Service were tied on the top.
Actuals: Wednesday, August 10th, High 92, Low 73
Thursday, August 11th, .01 inches of rain, High 85, Low 73

Grade: B-C