Divergent fortunes in Idaho Falls

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I spent quite a bit of time tweeting @Vic_WX as Hurricane Ian made landfall near Punta Gorda and Fort Myers, Florida. I suggest a follow for discussion on live and breaking news stories like Ian.

Last week, Idaho Falls was in the midst of a warm up that brought it close to record warmth for this time of year. With a trough off to the northwest, it seemed like these figures were about to change. How fast and how much was up for debate, though. Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel were on the right side of the debate, insisting that it would be “not very quickly” and “by about 5 degrees”. Actually, the issue for those that struggled with this forecast was a belief in more cloud cover for the area, and missed cold on the highs and warm on the lows. this warmth thanks to early sunshine and clear skies meanth much rainier storms when the clouds finally did fill in.
Actuals: 9/20 – High 84, low 42
9/21 – .68 inches of rain and thunderstorms, High 79, Low 45

Grade B-D

Cooler and comfortable

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Overnight lows in the 50s are like gifts, no matter where you are, but especially in a place like Gadsden, Alabama, where the persistent summertime humidity makes the nights cloying and hard to sleep through. This past weekend likely led to a lot of well rested residents, especially since manageable highs in the mid 80s should have meant a lot was accomplished during the day as well. Victoria-Weather can be proud of our accomplishment, earning the forecast victory.
Actuals: Saturday, High 85, Low 55
Sunday, High 86, Low 59

Grade: A-C

Summer claws back

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A fairly miserable little wave moved through the Great Lakes last week, bringing rain — too much in some instances — clouds and cooler weather throughout the region. It was a rather unpleasant weekend. By midweek, summer was ready to make a comeback, and nowhere appreciated that like Battle Creek. After a weekend of drear, temperatures were back up to 80 by Wednesday. Nice! Forecast.io had the forecast victory, thanks to that nice weater.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 73, Low 47
Wednesday – High 80, Low 55

Grade:B-C

A break in the right direction

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It seems to this Midwestern forecaster that lately, and especially in the summer, temperatures always sneak past the forecast highs. Apparently, that’s not how it works in northern Alabama! Temperatures failed to surpass 90 in HuntsvHuntsville, Alabamaille as August turned to September, and on the 1st, the low temperature dipped below 60. You can almost sleep in those temperatures! Unbound by our preconceived biases, Forecast.io did not fall into the too warm trap and had the top forecast.
Actuals: August 31st, High 89, Low 64
September 1st, High 89, Low 59

Grade: A – C

A clearing breeze

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My forecast for Benton Harbor was colored by my camping experience upstream the days before the forecast. I was in southeastern Minnesota, mired in cool, cloudy conditions for the weekend, and seeing the same satellite set up over Benton Harbor, I hedged towards the cooler end of things. My mistake. Breezes of over 15 miles an hour were enough of a steering flow, apparently, to clear things out, and allow the warning other outlets foresaw. The Weather Service grabbed a solo victory in this instance.
Actuals: Monday – High 78, Low 61
Tuesday – High 81, Low 57

Grade: A-C

An unclenching grasp

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There were some signals of cooler weather coming to Winston-Salem last week. A cold front north of the Appalachians, moist flow and overcast from the Atlantic, and the midst of summer’s dog days. The previous several days had been quiet warm, however, and clouds were slow in filling in across the region. Persistence paid off, and warmer forecasters collected the top spots. Victoria-Weather, Accuweather and the Weather Service were tied on the top.
Actuals: Wednesday, August 10th, High 92, Low 73
Thursday, August 11th, .01 inches of rain, High 85, Low 73

Grade: B-C

The peak of the heat wave

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The Pacific Northwest is had a hot spell at the end of July. Sure, it was not quite as long lasting as the one that came last year, but it was just as hot. Last Friday in Corvallis, hit 99, and was 96 on Saturday. As I said, fortunately, temperatures aren’t still that warm, but they lasted long enough that wild fires really exploded in southern Oregon and northern California. Hopefully, they are more well behaved than in recent years. The forecast in Corvallis was overheated, but a fairly well behaved. The Weather SErvice and WeatherNation drew level on the verification.
Friday – High 99, Low 62
Saturday – High 96, Low 62

Grade: A-C

Heat and repeat

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The end of last week in Abilene didn’t promise many changes. A slow, slow moving boundary was sinking towards the Lone Star State, but ultimately, no changes were ever seen in Abilene. Like, none. It was 101 for a high, 80 for a low on each day of our verification, with nary a drop of rain. The Weather Channel and WeatherNation secured a tie for the verification.
Actuals: Thursday – High 101, Low 80
Friday – High 101, Low 80

Grade: A-B

Hotlanta

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It’s been a tough week in eastern Kentucky, as it became a focal point for heavy rain as a slow moving boundary left even slower moving torrents of rain across the state, ultimately leaving dozens dead in flash flooding, and countless more with their lives turned upside down. The news from the area continues to get worse as we find out more, and we continue to keep residents in our thoughts.

Often when rain becomes centered on one spot, as it did in Kentucky, the threat for scattered showers away from that main area diminishes. Such was the case on Tuesday and Wednesday, when Atlanta, which had been forecast for some light showers on either of those two days, successfully avoided precipitation. Temperatures climbed a couple of degrees warmer than anyone had, but it was a generally tightly clustered verification. The Weather Channel and WeatherNation were strange bedfellows, tying for the top spot.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 91, Low 75
Wednesday – High 92, Low 75

Grade: B-C

No room at the top

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The forecast for Baltimore proved to be fairly easy to wrap our heads around. The end of the week was going to be hot, and generally free of any atmospheric changes. Mission accomplished! Everyone came in between 3 and 5 degrees of error, and there was no precipitation to worry about, so everyone can feel good about their day. Accuweather, the Weather Service and Weather Nation can feel just a little better about it though.
Actuals: Friday – High 95, Low 74
Saturday – High 97, Low 77

Grade: A