A switch flips

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On the 22nd, we put together a forecast for Trenton, where weather was looking fine. It continued as such for most of Wednesday the 23rd as well, but in the afternoon, things went from clear to cloudy in the span of a couple of hours, and then Trenton sat in the sludge for the rest of the forecast period. there was a little bit of rain that came with the overcast, which put Clime off of the victory, and instead handed it to the unlikely duo of Accuweather and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Tuesday August 23rd, High 78, Low 59
Wednesday – August 24th, .15 inches of rain, High 72, Low 66

Grade: B-C

Late night lucidity or blathering nonsense

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I famously am constantly in need of an editor, someone to review my spelling, and in some cases, such as two weeks ago when I put together a forecast for Yuba City, California, to make sure I made any sense. I suggested that diurnal convection might feel “left out” and bring shade to the town, and said that it is “night” that we are seeing clouds instead of smoke on the satellite this summer in California. I even spelled night correctly. I published the forecast after midnight, Victoria-Weather time, which was a big part of the problem, but despite all that, we managed to have the best numbers for Yuba City, tied with The Weather Channel. High pressure in the area provided the clear skies (and left those clouds out) needed to bump temperatures right on up to 106 on the 15th. Maybe I just need to start writing more in the middle of the night?
Actuals: Monday, August 14th, High 100, Low 74
Tuesday, August 15th, High 106, Low 67

Grade: B – C

Super Soaker

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When we put together our forecast for Syracuse a couple weeks back, I noted that I wasn’t buying into severe weather in the Syracuse area for the 7th and 8th. Truly, the severe weather did avoid Syracuse proper, though it was dicey in the Finger Lakes. Any good emergency response personnel will also tell you that flash flooding is severe weather too, and Syracuse got over three inches of rain during the two games of the forecast period, surely enough to cause significant problems around town. The Weather Channel was substantially better than the rest of this forecast, thanks in large part to a warm forecast on the 7th.
Actuals: August 7th, 2.46″ of rain, High 87, Low 66
August 8th, .8″ of rain, High 71, Low 66

Grade: A-C

Persistence in Florida

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One method of forecasting that we have is called “persistence forecasting” which basically using the weather that is seen on one day, and carrying that forward in your forecast. It can work in Florida, especially with what we have see in places like Orlando late in the summer. It’s hot and humid, temperatures generally float at about the same levels, there is usually a stray storm in the area, and you hope to avoid tropical intrigue. That’s how it went for our forecast towards the beginning of the month, though it was a hair cooler than it was when we created the forecast on the 3rd. Accuweather came through with their best performance in a while, and earned victory for the day.
Actuals: August 4th, .27 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 92, Low 76
August 5th, .03 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 95, Low 79

Grade: A-C

Overnight issues

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One area that didn’t experience a recent warm up when it was expected to was Louisville, Kentucky. On July 26th, when temperatures were expected to climb to the mid 90s, the highs just stayed where they had been the day before. Some early thunderstorms certainly prevented low temperatures from dropping significantly on that Wednesday morning, and that factor in particular led this forecast to be fairly middling. The Weather Channel had the only accurate precipitation forecast, with the light storm activity coming on the morning of the 26th, and won the day.
Actuals: July 25th – High 91, Low 70
July 26th – Thunderstorms reported, not measured, High 91, Low 78

Grade: C-D

Rain arrives before the heatwave

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I think, if anything, the “updates” have made me feel better, keeping in touch wit the weather world and sharing my thoughts on the site, instead of the meandering carcass of Twitter makes this site seem more current and me more engaged. That said, this has been a heck of a month, and the forecast we are verifying today, in Harrisonburg, Virginia, somehow occurred 2 weeks ago. At that time, a feature was attempting to ascend and descend the Appalachians into Harrisonburg, and I can now report, it was successful. Over the course of that weekend, nearly 3/4ths of an inch of rain fell, about as expected. Heavier thunderstorms on Saturday, light rain on Sunday morning, followed by a fairly manageable end to the weekend. Clime missed the thunder on Saturday, somehow, but everyone else hit on that front, and The Weather Channel continued a strong month, and earned the W.
Actuals: Saturday July 15th, .67 inches of rain in a thunderstorm, High 89, Low 63
Sunday – .05 inches of rain, High 85, Low 68

Grade: A – B

An uphill battle

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On June 9th, we put together a forecast for Denver. If you know anything about the city, you know that the airport is well to the east of town in the vast prarieland of the eastern part of the state. It’s otherwise barren country. Further west are the Rockies and the front range. Generally speaking, it’s a little bit cooler in the city than at the airport because of the terrain. A bit of a reverse urban heat island. This is all important background for the realization that downtown Denver, which is where the forecast verified, is different by a few degrees than the airport, which is the best source for model output statistics. So, we forecast, we went uphill and we verified. Clime, what with the algorithms and had the top temperature forecast, but their erroneuous rain forecast on the morning of the 10th meant Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel claimed a share of the win as well.
Monday July 10th, High 89, Low 60
Tuesday – July 11th, Hgh 92, Low 64

Grade: B-Ci

Odessa roasts

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The headlines have been pretty unequivocal. It’s been hot in the southern US, particularly in the southwest. The average highs in Arizona are generally pretty warm, so the 100 streak doesn’t stand out as being as far from normal as the mid-100s do in west Texas, where in Odessa, at least, the average high is down in the 80s. Indeed, for our forecast period, Odessa was at a scorching 103 and 104 on the 9th and 10th. That is some tough work for any outdoor employees. If there is a silver lining, it was that Victoria-Weather crushed this forecast and earned a victory.
Actuals: Sunday, July 9th, High 103, Low 80
Monday, July 10th, High 104, Low 74

Grade: A-B

4 Minutes!

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Thunderstorms moved into Amarillo after the 4th of July as the dry line finally shifted east and away from West Texas. on the 5th and 6th, as a system moving through the northern US dragged it into oblivion. As it usually does, it set off some nocturnal convection, which nearly everyone had in the forecast. I don’t feel bad for the outlets that left thunder out of the forecast for the 6th, as there were a solid 5 or 6 hours of stormy weather. Everyone who kept it dry on the 5th though, you were right, up until the 1156PM observation, when scattered storms were reported at KAMA. That’s tough. The Weather Service and WeatherNation had storms on both days of the forecast period, and WeatherNation narrowly edged the Weather Service to earn an Amarillo A+
Actuals: Wednesday, July 5th, Storms reported late, no accumulation, High 91, Low 69
Thursday, July 6th, .04″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 87, Low 63

Grade: A-C

Hazy days

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We are getting ready for a heat wave in the southern US, we can reflect on last month, when things were just downright smoky. All manner of the US experienced the smoky weather, from the Northern Plains all the way to the East Coast. We put together a forecast for Kalamazoo towards the end of the month, and indeed, it got smoky there as well. It was so smoky, and in conjunction with an inactive cold front that passed through, temperatures were only in the low 70s on Tuesday the 27th, but rebounded uncomfortably th Wednesday after. Weathernation collected their first solo victory of the year thanks to a solid forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday, June 27th, High 73, Low 59
Wednesday, June 28th, High 82, Low 53

Grade: A-C