An unpleasant start to May

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Now with forecasts of severe weather and a pending heat wave, it seems like a long time ago that we were talking about the chilly start to the month, as we were in Youngstown.. Well, I guess it was, not that it is already the 14th, but I digress. There was indeed some light snow mixed with rain on the 2nd, which is far too deep into the spring season for my taste. The forecast was a pretty neat affair, with little separating the top forecast from the bottom. The Weather Service and WeatherNation split honors, with a 4 way tie for second just behind them.
Actuals: Monday, May 1st, .31 inches of rain/snow, High 46, Low 38
Tuesday, May 2nd, .39 inches of rain and snow, High 43, Low 37

Grade. A-B

The best day of spring?

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I think that there is fairly universal consensus that the best kind of weather is where highs are in the 60s – warm but not too hot- with plenty of sun. As it worked out, that is exactly the weather that Pine Bluff saw on April 24th. The 23rd was cooler with some rain, which made the 24th seem even better. It felt the best, perhaps, for the Weather Service and WeatherNation, who tied for the top forecast.
Actuals: April 23rd: .03 inches of rain, High 57, Low 46
April 24th, High 66, Low 43

Grade: A-D

The thrill of an early spring

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Let’s all look back fondly at the middle of April. Warm temperatures and generally sunny skies dominated a lot of the middle of the country. That started slowly eroding, and now with the advance of a strong cold front tonight in the Mississippi Valley, is disintegrating quickly. But last week, think Wednesday and Thursday of last week in Canton was brilliant. Highs in the upper 70s to near 80 with nary a cloud in the sky. Clime and The Weather Channel each tied for the top forecast, which weren’t as good as expected, because the weather was even better than anyone ever imagined.
Actuals: Wednesday. April 12th, High 77, Grade 55
Thursday, April 13th, High 80, Low 54

Grade: B-C

Calm ahead of the storm

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It’s been an active start to the tornado season, with the most deadly storm arriving in Mississippi at the end of March. Nearby Dothan was the target of our forecast on March 22nd, and even then, we were watching storms developing in the southern Plains and speculating on what they mean for Dothan. Fortunately for our forecast outlets, they merely brought some warmer air and morning fog, at least during the forecast period. The swell of Gulf moisture was fairly well anticipated, and was among the factors in this well anticipated severe season. For Dothan, the top forecaster was Weatherbug, an outlet in sore need of a pick-me-up. Good on them.
Actuals: March 23rd, High 79, Low 56
March 24th, High 81, Low 59

Grade: A-C

A healthy drink in Utica

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An important part of the winter cycle in the north is the storage of water in the snowpack that will sustain and help nourish the first buds of spring time. It has been a warm, dry winter in the mid-Atlantic, so the next best thing is rain, like what fell on St. Patrick’s day in Utica. They received over a half an inch of rain, with a mostly inconsequential spot of flurry activity on the Saturday after. Usually the rainy systems with changing precip types are calamitous in the temperature forecast, but perhaps with a bit of the luck of the Irish, forecasts were quite good all around. The National Weather Service gained the W.
Actuals: March 17th, .58 inches of rain, High 45, Low 32
March 18th, .05 inches of liquid in snow, High 38, Low 25

Grade: A-B

Spring is not here yet

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Fond du Lac was seeing the last few flakes of a weak snow system when we issued their forecast a week and a half ago. It snows in March, that’s not unusual. In fact, March is one of the snowiest months of the year for the north central US. What was unusual was that on Tuesday, temperatures dropped down to single digits, well below normal. Victoria-Weather had a chilly outlook, securing the victory for the home team.
Actuals: March 13th, .07 inches of liquid in snow, High 29, Low 19|
March 14th, High 31, Low 7

Grade: A-C

Michigan City in March

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Our first forecast in the month of March went pretty well, frankly. There was a late developing, potentially virulent storm headed towards the Great Lakes that lead to an array of precipitation forecasts in Michigan City. In the end, on March 9th, Michigan City saw precipitation in the evening, which changed to all snow quite quickly. This happened sooner than anticipated, but it wasn’t doom and gloom for most of the forecasts, at least those that called for precipitation. The temperatures were baked in before the precipitation was expected, so for those that called for rain, the forecast worked well. Victoria-Weather started the month with a W.
Actuals: March 8th, High 46, Low 30
March 9th, Trace of precipitation, HIgh 43, Low 32

Grade A-C

Swings

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Back in Mid February, Greensboro was in the midst of a comfortable stretch of weather, at odds with what the calendar said. On the 20th and 21st, the weather was at the very least interesting. On the 20th, a splash of rain and a cold front meant temperatures were able only to reach 60 degrees. After that frontal passage, the high jumped to 73 on the 21st. Those highs and lows were both as low as (20th) and higher than (21st) all of the forecast highs. As it worked out, Clime was able to navigate their first forecast win, owing their victory to a dry forecast on the 21st.
Actuals: February 20th, .03″ of rain, High 60, Low 44
February 21st, High 73, Low 47

Grade: B-C

The best they can get

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It’s been a rough winter for snow fans across a great deal of the country. Sure, here at Victoria-Weather HQ, we have been buried in snow, with more on the way, but even just as far south as Des Moines or east in Indianapolis, the winter has been paltry. So the snow that was received in Indianapolis back at the end of January, while it only accumulated to 1-4″ of snow in the metro, it was the biggest storm they’d seen to date or since in many spots. Fortunately, my misgivings about Clime were for naught, as they tied for the top spot with the Weather Channel.
Actuals: January 25th, .73 inches of liquid in rain and snow, High 38, Low 32
January 26th, .11 inches of liquid in snow, High 32, Low 24

Grade: A-C

Clime flops in debut

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Austin stayed on the cooler end of the spectrum after our forecast last week, even as low pressure in the Southern Plains emerged and started drawing warm air to the north. It did get quite a bit warmer, but not to the level some of our outlets expected. Nearly all errors were because the forecast was too warm, and the warmest forecast belonged to newcomer Clime, and as a result were the lowest total, while Victoria-Weather, the coolest ‘cast, earned a solid victory.
Actuals: January 14th, High 65, Low 34
January 15th, High 72, Low 47

Grade: A-C