Should have trusted my gut

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

I noted in my forecast that I admired the outlets that were leaving rain out of the forecast in Huntsville for Monday. I thought what was showing up in the model guidance was just an overzealous interpretation of the increasing clouds in the area ahead of a cold front and vorticity maximum along the Gulf Coast. I also (this time correctly) suspected that this vort max would reduce overall rainfall in Huntsville, drawing it all into the center of circulation. I should have trusted myself on both accounts, because it didn’t rain a drop on Monday. Not that getting it correct would have helped. Clime ended up winning this one.
Actuals: Monday – High 74, Low 54
Tuesday .07 inches of rain, High 64, Low 58

Grade: B-C

In like a Lion

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Birmingham was getting ready for a line of thunderstorms as we put our forecast together last Wednesday. After the line went through, temperatures were cooler and it was dry to end February. Things took a turn on Friday, when the next round of wet weather moved into town. This round brought about .8″ of rain, a not insignificant amount, and certainly a bad sign for the weekend. If one believes in omens, this must also mean that the month of March will be out like a lamb in Birmingham, so that’s a good sign, right? Victoria-Weather easily won the forecast.
Actuals: Thursday: High 50, Low 37
Friday: .81″ of rain, High 51, Low 45

Grade: A-D

Soggy conditions for NorCal

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Our forecast for Merced anticipated yet another round of wet weather coming into the West Coast. Unlike previous iterations of the relentless storms pounding the Pacific Coast this year, the emphasis of this storm was on the Sierra Nevada, where blizzard conditions shut down the region. Still, it was a healthy storm for Merced, where nearly an inch of rain fell in town on Friday. Despite all the headwinds against us as a community of forecast outlets (A large system moving into the west coast, with undulating terrain leading to unique microclimates), the numbers ended up pretty good for everyone, including a three way tie atop the leaderboard, from The Weather Channel, Weather Service and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Thursday – .02 inches of rain, High 66, Low 43
Friday – .97 inches of rain, high 59, Low 52

Grade: A – C

A little of both

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

There was a little bit of a debate for the forecast for Ocean City. Would the system moving through be quick and usher in colder air? Would it be slow and let some light rain linger into the weekend? Most outlets kind of hedged. The clouds would linger, and the cold air wouldn’t arrive. Instead, there was light precipitation early Saturday morning AND the cold air came in. Victoria-Weather went the cold route along with Weatherbug, while Accuweather was the only outlet that had rain on Saturday’s forecast, and everything worked out to a three way tie, with all others several points off. I should note, this is the one rare site where I do not use an NWS observation point, because the nearest is Atlantic City, another site we might forecast for, so I used the nearest site available from Weatherforyou.com.
Actuals: Friday – .22 inches of rain, High 48, Low 41
Saturday – .07 inches of rain, High 46, Low 30

Grade: B-C

A beautiful bounce back

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

It’s good to be in San Diego. Just a statement for always, but also specifically now, where last week, weather bounced back pretty nicely after significant rain caused problems for most of Southern California early last week. It continued a trend of flooding rain across the region to start 2024. It wasn’t quite the issue to end last week. After a chilly beginning on Thursday, temperatures started climbing and the sun came out, preventing even wispy morning fog. The Weather Channel turned out the top forecast, narrowly edging their oppoinents.
Actuals: Thursday – High 63, Low 51
Friday – High 73, Low 51

Grade: A- C

Dropping Off

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Things sure can change in a week. We looked at Springfield, Massachusetts about this time last week, and it was ensconced in high pressure. This led to a pretty quiet forecast with a broad range of temperatures. Today, weather has rolled in, and many parts of New England and the Mid-Atlantic are seeing significant snowfall, and in some placed, seeing it for the first time in a while. The biggest hang up in the forecast was that dynamic change in temperatures, especially at night. Clouds never really played a factor, and the morning low on both Wednesday and Thursday fell below expectations. Clime had a good day, however, and was rewarded with the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 44, Low 19
Thursday – High 50, Low 22

Grade: C-D

The atmospheric stream

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

The “atmospheric river’ terminology is one that has really captured the imagination of the media, and we are hearing it quite a bit right now as rainfall is inundating southern California. The atmospheric river is simply a strong active jet stream, and when it comes from the sea, there is more moisture available, and “more moisture” isn’t something we think of when talking about southern California. In fact, last month when we were forecasting for San Luis Obispo, I thought the few showers showing up in the area were remarkable enough to call them out ostentatiously. The rain seen now in the LA Basin is several orders of magnitude larger than that, so if this is the atmospheric river, then what we saw in late January was a mere stream. A trickle. For the day, WeatherNation had the forecast victory, being the best temperature forecaster among outlets that left rain in the forecast on the 25th.
Actuals: January 25th, .01 inches of rain, High 66, Low 51
January 26th, High 75, Low 48

Grade: B-C

Uncharacteristically chilly

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

I know there is a “North” in the name, but you don’t usually think of sub-freezing temperatures in Charlotte, North Carolina. That’s exactly what they saw on January 19th and 20th, though. Most of the 20th, in fact, was below freezing, with highs remaining in the mid-30s. It’s been an active month, and post frontal cooldowns are becoming many in the southeast are getting used to enduring. The Weather Channel and Accuweather tied for the top forecast, missing out, as everyone did, on the end of the rain associated with that cold front sweeping through. No rain on the 19th.
Actuals: January 19th, High 52, Low 29
January 20th, High 33, Low 20

Grade: B-C

Everything is bigger in Texas

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Even, unfortunately, the mistakes are bigger in Texas. Temperature behind last week’s system did not react quite how anyone had anticipated in Dallas. Every outlet thought it would be as cool as freezing, or nearly there on the 18th, last Thursday, and it only dipped as low as 40. This warmer base meant that the high on Friday was also significantly warmer than expected as well, with the midnight high coming in at 45, when nobody expected anything better than the mid-30s. It wasn’t a good forecast, for sure, but The Weather Channel ultimately came away with the top score.
Actuals: Thursday – High 58, Low 40
Friday – High 45, Low 26

Grade: C

Gales of the Great Lakes

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

While the rest of the country was able to dry out after a system moved through the middle of the country about this time last week, Lansing was left in a lurch. After the warm start to the season, Lake Michigan still has open water, and deep cold pool with west winds whipping across the Lake settled in. The fetch wasn’t deep enough to substantively affect Lansing, but overcast and cold temperatures still enveloped the capital city. There were flurries at times both days, which ultimately awarded the top forecast to the Weather Service and WeatherNation.
Actuals: January 15th, .01 inches of moisture in snow, High 11, Low -4
January 16th, .01 inches of moisture in snow, High 9, Low 2

Grade: B-C