4 Minutes!

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Thunderstorms moved into Amarillo after the 4th of July as the dry line finally shifted east and away from West Texas. on the 5th and 6th, as a system moving through the northern US dragged it into oblivion. As it usually does, it set off some nocturnal convection, which nearly everyone had in the forecast. I don’t feel bad for the outlets that left thunder out of the forecast for the 6th, as there were a solid 5 or 6 hours of stormy weather. Everyone who kept it dry on the 5th though, you were right, up until the 1156PM observation, when scattered storms were reported at KAMA. That’s tough. The Weather Service and WeatherNation had storms on both days of the forecast period, and WeatherNation narrowly edged the Weather Service to earn an Amarillo A+
Actuals: Wednesday, July 5th, Storms reported late, no accumulation, High 91, Low 69
Thursday, July 6th, .04″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 87, Low 63

Grade: A-C

Hazy days

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We are getting ready for a heat wave in the southern US, we can reflect on last month, when things were just downright smoky. All manner of the US experienced the smoky weather, from the Northern Plains all the way to the East Coast. We put together a forecast for Kalamazoo towards the end of the month, and indeed, it got smoky there as well. It was so smoky, and in conjunction with an inactive cold front that passed through, temperatures were only in the low 70s on Tuesday the 27th, but rebounded uncomfortably th Wednesday after. Weathernation collected their first solo victory of the year thanks to a solid forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday, June 27th, High 73, Low 59
Wednesday, June 28th, High 82, Low 53

Grade: A-C

Memories of Florida

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We are all a bit older, a bit wiser than when we put together our forecast last month for Fort Myers. A lingering boundary lay on the southern end of the Sunshine State, but for the most part, precipitation was staying on the Atlantic side of the Peninsula. Fort Myers is on the Gulf Coast side of Florida. I noticed this and kept rain out of the forecast, and everyone else left it in. Weatherbug had a solid enough forecast that they earned victory based on their temperatures alone, but Victora-Weather was the only one with the proper precip forecast.
Actuals: June 10th, High 90, Low 77
June 11th, High 90, Low 76

Grade: B-C

Omega in charge

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This month has been quite rainy for the southern US, but for a strip from the north central to the mid-Atlantic, it has been quite dry for a couple of weeks. It all started with an omega block, which we identified with our forecast in Allentown. Allentown remained dry, despite some storms in the area on the 6th of June, and it was quickly followed by the apocalyptic smoke that descended on the region. A little rain on any number of tracts of land between northern Canada and Allentown would have been great, but it was not to be. Victoria-Weather’s forecast sparkled, and the victory was ours.
Actuals: June 5th, High 77, Low 48
June 6th, High 79, Low 52

Grade B-C

One for the brochure

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Residents of Prescott likely live in town for one big reason. Days like those they saw at the beginning of Memorial Day weekend. Temperatures were in the mid 70s for highs with bright sunshine and cool lows overnight. Not the scorching heat to the south, no humidity and just some fantastic days to spend outdoors, really participating in any activity one might want to do. The Weather Channel and Clime were able to tie atop the leaderboard. Perhaps the forecasters can be rewarded with a trip to Prescott.
Actuals: Friday, High 75, Low 51
Saturday, High 75, Low 45

Grade: B-C

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We are in late spring at this point, and have been undergoing a somewhat early season-ish spell, in which systems were charging through the southern US, leaving the northern US unaffected. As a local resident who was battered through the winter, I fairly appreciate that. It has made for a a chillier stretch through mid-May though, and that is what Iowa City was experiencing towards the beginning of last week. Without a feature moving through on Tuesday, temperatures soared into the 80s, however the next day, a system in the Tennessee Valley brought temperatures in Iowa City back down to the low 80s for a high. Forecasts were fine, though with mostly clear skies we would all like to have done better. The Weather Service and Accuweather drew level for this forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 81, Low 57
Wednesday – High 73, Low 52

Grade: B-C

An unpleasant start to May

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Now with forecasts of severe weather and a pending heat wave, it seems like a long time ago that we were talking about the chilly start to the month, as we were in Youngstown.. Well, I guess it was, not that it is already the 14th, but I digress. There was indeed some light snow mixed with rain on the 2nd, which is far too deep into the spring season for my taste. The forecast was a pretty neat affair, with little separating the top forecast from the bottom. The Weather Service and WeatherNation split honors, with a 4 way tie for second just behind them.
Actuals: Monday, May 1st, .31 inches of rain/snow, High 46, Low 38
Tuesday, May 2nd, .39 inches of rain and snow, High 43, Low 37

Grade. A-B

The best day of spring?

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I think that there is fairly universal consensus that the best kind of weather is where highs are in the 60s – warm but not too hot- with plenty of sun. As it worked out, that is exactly the weather that Pine Bluff saw on April 24th. The 23rd was cooler with some rain, which made the 24th seem even better. It felt the best, perhaps, for the Weather Service and WeatherNation, who tied for the top forecast.
Actuals: April 23rd: .03 inches of rain, High 57, Low 46
April 24th, High 66, Low 43

Grade: A-D

The thrill of an early spring

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Let’s all look back fondly at the middle of April. Warm temperatures and generally sunny skies dominated a lot of the middle of the country. That started slowly eroding, and now with the advance of a strong cold front tonight in the Mississippi Valley, is disintegrating quickly. But last week, think Wednesday and Thursday of last week in Canton was brilliant. Highs in the upper 70s to near 80 with nary a cloud in the sky. Clime and The Weather Channel each tied for the top forecast, which weren’t as good as expected, because the weather was even better than anyone ever imagined.
Actuals: Wednesday. April 12th, High 77, Grade 55
Thursday, April 13th, High 80, Low 54

Grade: B-C

Calm ahead of the storm

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It’s been an active start to the tornado season, with the most deadly storm arriving in Mississippi at the end of March. Nearby Dothan was the target of our forecast on March 22nd, and even then, we were watching storms developing in the southern Plains and speculating on what they mean for Dothan. Fortunately for our forecast outlets, they merely brought some warmer air and morning fog, at least during the forecast period. The swell of Gulf moisture was fairly well anticipated, and was among the factors in this well anticipated severe season. For Dothan, the top forecaster was Weatherbug, an outlet in sore need of a pick-me-up. Good on them.
Actuals: March 23rd, High 79, Low 56
March 24th, High 81, Low 59

Grade: A-C