It was a picture-perfect day around here in the Twin Cities. Upper 60s, partly cloudy, a little on a breezy side but wasn’t awful. These are the beautiful spring days that we cherish around here.

So of COURSE we’re looking at a monster snowstorm moving our way in 3-4 days. A low pressure system that’s currently moving onshore over the West Coast is expected to eject into the Plains on Wednesday and become another BOMB CYCLONE (it’s this year’s fun media-hyped weather buzzword, like Polar Vortex). Forecasts are, naturally, very wide-ranging in our area specifically, but it’s looking extremely likely that there will be a broad swath of land from western Nebraska to northern Minnesota that will get 12-18″ of snow, with embedded areas getting over 2 feet. Below is the latest GFS snowfall forecast through the event. It will be interesting to see how the system evolves over the next couple of days.

Just for reference, the biggest April snowstorm on record in the Twin Cities is 15.8″ set all the way back in… 2018. The 9th biggest storm of 9.0″ was also last year. This is not a trend I like to see continue, but alas, BUCKLE UP EVERYBODY. Winter is coming… well, I guess it hasn’t left at all.

We were very busy in March. Even despite our complete website collapse, we fit 11 forecasts in, so we definitely feel comfortable in saying that The Weather Channel did enough to prove that they were the forecaster of the Month. It’s even more impressive than that, as they had 4.5 wins in March alone, and went from the lowest forecast win total for the year to the lead. Nice work, Weather Channel!

Outlet	Month wins
The Weather Channel	4.5
Victoria-Weather	2
WeatherNation	2
National Weather Service	1.5
Accuweather	1
Weatherbug
Forecast.io

Outlet	Month wins	year wins
The Weather Channel	4.5	5.75
Victoria-Weather	2	5
Weatherbug	4.58
National Weather Service	1.5	3.75
WeatherNation	2	3.58
Forecast.io	3
Accuweather	1	2.33

There are two things that we can see long term that help indicate whether or not flooding is in the future. Is there a lot of snowpack ready to melt? This year, that was a firm yes. Second, is there flooding upstream? For places from Missouri south to the Gulf of Mexico, the answer is also yes. Residents are already preparing, especially on the banks of the Missouri River.

A short term impact on flooding, as in one that can arrive with much less advance warning, is rain. Flash flooding is the result of more local rains, but river flooding can be exasperated by fresh rain fall. It can also be advanced by a rapid warm up, especially if coupled with rain. This was the problem in South Dakota, Iowa and Nebraska earlier this month.

Fortunately for millions of residents, the thaw at the headwaters of the Mississippi was methodical, with refreezing overnight, and a more tempered warm up. The Mississippi and many of it’s tributaries are high, but municipalities in Minnesota and Iowa were able to anticipate the rising waters, for the most part, and have been able to stave off major issues.

And although the CPC continues to have a wetter than average beginning to April and spring season in the forecast, the ground is beginning to thaw and most of the melting above ground is complete. The Mississippi is cresting in Minnesota and starting to recede, with a major crisis averted. The good news in Nebraska, Iowa Kansas and Missouri is that any potential catastrophes aren’t going to loom more ominous than they already do.

The water was so high upstream in Nebraska and South Dakota that downstream flooding through Kansas City couldn’t be averted (though it wasn’t as bad as feared) and communities between Kansas City and St. Louis will need to be aware too, however the graciousness of Mother Nature, allaying the melting process and keeping the Midwest dry for several days, and the lower Mississippi Valley can breathe a sigh of relief.

While we’ve been knocked out of commission and also trying to get caught up with life, the weather has gone on unabated. While most of the country has been bouncing back from a grueling winter, our first stop takes us to Nebraska and South Dakota, which are undergoing unprecedented flooding, thanks primarily to snow melt, which has led to dam breaches, particularly on the Missouri, Elkhorn and Niobara Rivers.

These floods pale in comparison, somehow, and amazingly, to the catastrophic landfall of a cyclone near Beira, Mozambique. Cyclone Idai, all told will end up killing thousands in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi. Part of the problem, as is often the case with disasters in the third world is a failure of infrastructure, but another is that Mozambique has a natural barrier – Madagascar – that usually saves the country, and the region was less experienced with such catastrophes. Idai brought its strongest winds to Beira, a city of 300,000, then meandered through southeast Africa, with floods sweeping inland areas, driving up the death toll.

After all that, it’s tough to move to a different, more positive tale, but here it is” We were able to maintain our records, even if we weren’t able to keep our site up and running. We can say for sure that Accuweather had the top month back in February, which seems wild, since A) I can’t believe we are still thinking about February and B) they did it without much success on winning individual forecasts. Consistency! Congrats to Accuweather

Month wins
Weatherbug	2.58
WeatherNation	1.58
Victoria-Weather	1
Forecast.io	1
Accuweather	0.33
The Weather Channel	0.25
National Weather Service	0.25

Outlet	Month wins	year wins
Weatherbug	2.58	3.58
Victoria-Weather	1	3
Forecast.io	1	3
National Weather Service	0.25	2.25
WeatherNation	1.58	1.58
Accuweather	0.33	1.33
The Weather Channel	0.25	1.25