By now, we’ve all heard the stories of utter devastation for the northern Bahamian islands of Great Abaco and Grand Bahama. The initial storm surge put a lot of Abaco underwater at the initial landfall, and many deaths on the island were the result of drowning during the storm surge, while in this case, the eye’s passage overhead provided a chance for many to get to higher, safer ground.

The storm then sat and spun over the eastern side of Grand Bahama, cutting the largest city, Freeport, off from the rest of the island. The destruction there, thanks to persistent triple digit wind speeds and a very high storm surge, is comprehensive.

This is the Grand Bahama International Airport. Planes were blown off the tarmac, and buildings were destroyed. These are some of the first planes able to land since Dorian bringing doctors and nurses and medical supplies. @WPTV pic.twitter.com/VEDdwoPydg

— Ryan Hughes (@HughesWPTV) September 6, 2019

Dorian’s slow down fortunately spared the Floridian coast from the worst damage, but the storm spiraled northwards and pummeled Georgia and the Carolinas with rain, storm surge, tornadoes and category 2-3 winds, before it made a brief trek over the Outer Banks, with a landfall at Cape Hatteras. Take a look at the radar imagery to see how close the eye was to Charleston and Wilmington at various points.

In case you were wondering where Dorian is pic.twitter.com/Zin9skqK8o

— Ryan (@RhinoandCompass) September 5, 2019

A Dorian location update pic.twitter.com/d0dz9Ph5Br

— Ryan (@RhinoandCompass) September 5, 2019

Dorian moved away from the Carolina coast and as he weakened, broadened his footprint, meaning more rain and cloud cover further from the center of the storm. A course directly up the Gulf Stream and away from land will allow for maintained intensity until he made another landfall, this time over the weekend in the Canadian Maritimes.

Dorian tracked directly over Halifax, Nova Scotia with hurricane strength winds, and thought it didn’t approach the intensity it had when the storm swept through the Bahamas, he did considerable damage there as well.

The above video provides a good recap of the storms entire course. At least 45 people are confirmed to have died in Dorian’s path, with the majority of the fatalities in the Bahamas, though many more are possible when the affected islands are accessible.

If you can help out and choose to do so, the Red Cross is always accepting donations.

Because of the slowed down pace, Dorian was able to deepen further than forecasts originally expected, and has become a Category 5 storm as it bears down on the northern Bahamas. It has developed a well defined eye, as a symbol of it’s strength.

That’s a remarkable satellite image, in all of the worst ways. Dorian is going to prove very dangerous to the northernmost islands of the Bahamas, and it appeared he was on his way to becoming the strongest storm to hit the east coast of Florida since Andrew, but alas, that slow pace may have spared Florida the worst.

The slow pace has allowed Dorian to reach the Gulf Stream as what had been a stout Bermuda high breaks down. Instead of intercepting Florida, Dorian is expected to veer poleward to such a degree that he may not make a continental landfall until Nova Scotia.

The NHC maintains warnings for the northern Bahamas, particularly Great Abaco and Grand Bahama, which look to bear Dorian’s full brunt over the weekend, but at this time, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for a small stretch of Floridian coastline.

Dorian remains a danger, of course. The Bahamas in particular are in imminent danger, and even if the storm stays off shore as is now anticipated, waves of thunderstorms will still sweep from Florida to the Carolinas, with flooding a distinct possibility. There may be some lower end hurricane winds as well, particularly north of Miami, and in the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Even with these threats, though, it’s hard not to view the latest forecasts as anything but good news.

Dorian has just now been upgraded to hurricane status. He presently sits to the east of Puerto Rico, and will move across the virginiaIslands. Forecast trends have been for a slower progression, a bit removed from the Bahamas, both of which are trends that indicate a stronger storm than had been originally forecast.

Not last week, we were discussing the timid nature of Chantal, as she spun into the north Atlantic. Dorian was initially thought to be another fish storm (after he encountered the Lesser Antillies, of course) but now, the storm is getting slower, and is missing out on the steering flow that instead grabbed the short lived Erin, who is now spiraling off after Chantal.

Dorian is now expected to swing north of the Bahamas before curling back to the west towards Cape Canaveral in about 5 days time, with a landfall sometime this weekend. This is still quite a ways out, and there is certainly plenty of time for things to change, a caveat that is always in place for tropical features, but things aren’t breaking well in the last 48 hours.

A slower course will allow it more time to ingest warm, energizing ocean water, which would have been ok, if it had continued on it’s original course over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and through the Bahamas. Instead, it’s jogged east and north, avoiding most of the major landmasses in his way. Now, Dorian, which looks to take an unimpeded run at the Florida coast, may arrive as a major hurricane over Labor Day weekend.

If high pressure doesn’t develop with the strength expected over Bermuda, the storm may shift north, but if it does, it will press south. If the storm tracks directly over some islands, or shear is greater than expected, then Dorian will end up weaker as he landfalls on the Florida Coast. Unfortunately, none of those things seem as though they are expected to come to fruition.

The below track and intensity projections don’t ingest the European model. If they did, they would likely be more aggressive on a land fall closer to Vero Beach and Fort Pierce, with a bit more of an intensity peak at landfall. We’ll try to keep you updated here and on Twitter.

Tropical Storm names recycle every 6 years, unless they are retired. The powers that be update their lists every once in a great while, but Chantal has been a part of the lists since 1983, a solid 36 years, and six total cycles. Once, in 1989, a Chantal emerged in the Gulf and began dissipating as she hit the Texas Coast. That was the last time we have seen a Chantal of any significance.

2003’s Chantal was as close as we’ve come to remembering any Chantals, with $5mm of damage to the coastline of Belize. All told, given the scope of damage a hurricane can introduce, that’s pretty much coming away Scot free.

But it’s still more than most Chantals can say, including the one that just formed in the way north Atlantic over the last 48 hours. Check out the current satellite imagery of the storm.

Not only is Chantal disorganized, but the closest island is Newfoundland. This Chantal is going to be just as uneventful as previous iterations.

After a busy couple of years, not only is Chantal harmlessly out to sea, she is also the first storm in months. Granted, we are approaching the peak of the season, but there isn’t any development looming quite yet. With any luck, this entire hurricane season is one big Chantal.

Last night, massive supercells cropped up in the eastern plains of Colorado. A few tornadoes were reported, though there isn’t much population to really see much of a threat. The hail was more widespread, however, and it was gigantic.

Take a look at the tweeted imge of Colorado’s new largest recorded ahi slone.

Here is the record setting hailstone, shortly after it fell near Bethune, CO yesterday. Today, @NWSGoodland measured the stone at 4.83" in diameter and it weighed 8.5 ounces. Obviously, a little melting from its original size, but still beats the old state record of 4.5" #cowx pic.twitter.com/wjHCweQ1oq

— Brian Bledsoe (@BrianBledsoe) August 14, 2019

The crazy part is that pattern didn’t change much, if at all. Tennis balls fell on the same location the very next night!

Not record setting tonight, but the same family that endured the record setting hail last night had another round of hail tonight. This time, about tennis ball size…and unfortunately window damage. @NWSGoodland @ColoradoClimate #cowx pic.twitter.com/yNlLZqDvFi

— Brian Bledsoe (@BrianBledsoe) August 15, 2019

Hail stones are caused by strong updrafts, which cause droplets to accrete more and more ice and causes it to become heavier and heavier. The hail stone falls to earth when its weight causes the downward gravitational force to exceed the updraft force. Storms in eastern Colorado have had such intense updrafts so as a half a pound of ice could be suspended. These storms were fueled by the clash of dry air from the west intersecting the heat and humidity in the High Plains.

You can read more about the hail at the Denver Post.

After several consecutive years of drier than normal conditions, and severe drought and water shortages across California, a robust winter and a long spring have nearly reversed the trend, save for a slightly dry patch over the San Diego area.

Additionally, it doesn’t appear as though the drought will return even late this summer. A break is just what all concerned parties need this summer. Hopefully, it will persist next year as well.

A watch is issued when a dangerous situation is possible, but a PDS, or “particularly dangerous situation” watch indicates a level of certainty for high end severe weather that should give residents within the bounds of a watch pause. The SPC has issued a PDS Severe thunderstorm watch for Northern Kansas and parts of southern Nebraska, including Lincoln.

Usually, PDS watches are for tornadoes, when supercells are expected to produce large, long lived tornadoes. In the case of this severe watch, that massive line bearing down on Hill City, and ultimately posing a threat for Concordia before dawn, the ongoing threat will be extremely violent straight line winds.

The text of the watch includes a threat for winds of 85mph or greater, while there have already been reports of gusts to 80mph as the squall exited Colorado. This storm is going to rage overnight, which means it will likely take many people off guard. Unlike tornadoes which usually bring sirens, but ultimately pick and choose their way across the countryside, this storm will not trigger warning sirens in every county, despite the risks, and will likely impact more residents. The PDS attribution should make all emergency personnel in the area take notice and be ready to respond as necessary.

It’s going to be a noisy night.

This is #Lekima. Just one example of how unpredictable these massive storms can be! pic.twitter.com/ctaxBYxWxw

— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) August 8, 2019

At the time of the GIF The Weather Channel tweeted out, Super Typhoon Lekima was a category 4 storm, doing a quick two-step around Tarama Island southwest of Okinawa. Lekima was one of two typhoons spinning in the region at the time, but fortunately, Lekima was ultimately the only one that made its way to the mainland, striking south of Shanghai.

Krosa ultimately flamed out, but Lekima did lead to 30 deaths, most of which came in a landslide in the populous and hilly Chinese coastal regions. The remnants of the storm are still moving up the coast, and though it no longer maintains the same levels of intensity, the heavy rains are going to continue to bring problems to many communities.

While Lekima was fierce and scarier still when in tandem with Krosa looming on the horizon, we are in a surprisingly calm period, given the time of the year. The Pacific is generally faster to start tropical season than the Atlantic (which remains remarkably dormant) but aside from Lekima and Krosa, there are no other named storms on the planet.

The Eastern Pacific looks next to give rise to another storm, as models seem to hint at something popping up in the next 10 days, but the Eastern Pacific is usually one of the safer places for tropical development, interception with land is rather difficult.

It’s still a month from the peak of the Atlantic season, and the Pacific Season can often come in waves, but through the middle of August, we look to be n a welcome pause this tropical season, especially in eastern China, where recovery is needed.

Summer time in the forecasting world can be fairly sporadic, and won and lost on the margins, especially if you don’t take into account the tropical season, which has been, this year, fairly dormant. Those margins, though, can be pretty important, particularly in the energy sector, where temperature forecasting becomes crucial, and every degree matters. It may not seem as important to the lay person, but this win for Accuweather, is just as important as any other month.

Outlet	Month wins
Accuweather	1.58
WeatherNation	1.33
Victoria-Weather	1.25
The Weather Channel	0.75
Forecast.io	0.75
National Weather Service	0.33
Weatherbug

Outlet	Month wins	year wins
The Weather Channel	0.75	10.7
Victoria-Weather	1.25	9.95
Weatherbug	0	7.58
Forecast.io	0.75	6.75
Accuweather	1.58	6.61
National Weather Service	0.33	5.78
WeatherNation	1.33	5.61

Barry formed sloppily over the northern Gulf of Mexico late in the week before he made landfall near Intracoastal City, in the south central part of the state. The forecast was for a weak hurricane, at some point, and it was, but Barry made his landfall as a tropical storm.

The traditional concerns with a hurricane – wind and storm surge, looked to be mitigated by the general disarray of the storm even as he approached the coast. Note that the center of the storm is actually on the far north side of this batch of clouds, taken on Friday.

There was no rain ahead of the storm either, but that has since changed. There is now a sizeable plume of heavy rain over eastern Louisiana, with more intense bands in central Mississippi.

Barry isn’t sluggish, like Harvey a couple years ago, nor does it possess an otherworldly amount of rainfall, and isn’t very blustery. In most years, Barry would pass through inconvenient but forgotten

This year, however, the Plains have been beset by a whole lot of rain after an active late spring snow season. The Mississippi River was already up as a result of the upstream backlog, and now, Barry’s downpours will overwork the lower River and Delta. Fortunatley, the storm surge was mild, and in better news, the city of New Orleans sounds confident of the changes they have made post-Katrina. Nevertherless, Barry will continue to provide a threat for flash flooding in low lying areas in tbe far southern part of the state. Of course, the entire area is a low lying area, so be vigilant if you are riding this out in the bayous.