In many summers, I find myself rolling my eyes at other outlets’ analyses of the surface. There is often a stationary boundary, left for days along the Gulf Coast of the US. Perhaps a cold front had descended from the Ohio Valley a week prior, but eventually, you need to call a spade a spade. There is onshore flow, and it causes thunderstorms. Not every boundary is a cold front.

This year, and especially right now, we haven’t been seeing those straggler boundaries populating the coast. Right now, it’s evident that there is an off shore boundary pointing into the Carolinas

One might be inclined to analyze something along the band of thunderstorms through north Florida, or perhaps even further north on the clearing line from southern Kentucky to central Oklahoma. In fact, most outlets are keeping truncated fronts, and there is a very good reason for that.

All of those orange and red shades are heat advisories. It is astonishingly hot throughout the Plains and Mississippi Valley. It’s really hard to say there is a cold front when there is a heat wave immediately behind the boundary. The WPC, proponent of the long ranging front, parlays the cold front into a warm front hugging those advisories to the west.

The jet is still somewhat active, but it remains well north of the domestic US. A cooler start to July in the southeast and a blistering start in the north is also starting to level off, but is making for a challenging environment for cold fronts to survive. If a change occurs, it will have to come from the west, which may happen next week.

The United States is experiencing it’s own catastrophes this year. Growing wildfires and drought in the west, with flash floods in the southeast, along with heatwaves in the north. A lot of the worst weather in the world seems to afflict the United States in an outsized fashion, but it seems that is not the case in recent weeks.

First is the story of flooding in central Europe. Relentless and heavy rains have been hammering Benelux and western Germany, leading to river flooding on the Rhine in Germany and the Meuse in Belgium in particular, with subsidiaries an other rivers also spilling out of their banks. The intensity of the rains also led to flash flooding in these areas, while the river flooding is continuing to disrupt lives, with the threat of disease adding onto threats to infrastructure and livelihood.

The flooding was the result of a stalled, training pattern of showers and thunderstorms that lasted for the better part of last week. The good news is that the flooding is going to be allowed to abate over the next week, at least. High pressure over the British Isles is going to drift toward the Low Countries and barricade them from additional rainfall for the week. The next real threat for showers and thunderstorms is next weekend, and we can all hope that the feature moves as quickly as the models presently suggest.

A bit closer to home, tornadoes are in the news. The US has had an incredible string of good fortune, in that there were no tornadoes stronger than EF2 in May or June. Unfortunately, in Barrie, Canada, the tornado news was worse. A tornado – measuring at an EF2 – struck residential parts of the community, taking roofs off of houses, but fortunately, doing structural damage and sparing the residents of the houses it hit.

Listen to the tale of Natalie Harris, a City Councilor in Barrie, who saw significant damage to her home during the twister on Thursday.

The greatest damage was to the far southeastern part of town. The damage would surely have been more significant if it had been just a couple miles to the north.

Another massive heat wave is in the forecast according to the CPC’s outlook, and this time, the region expected to be baked is the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Curiously, while the northern US roasts, the southern part of the country looks to be well below normal. In the summer, that’s comfortable, so it’s not the story,

Unlike the blocking ridge that brought the heat in the Pacific Northwest last month, this looks like a more traditional ridge allowing all that heat to build. Temperatures from Montana through the Dakotas and into northern Minnesota could hit triple digits through early next week.

There will be a remnant mid and upper level trough over the southern US, which will lead to several rainy days, and keep temperatures cool. If it weren’t for that trough, given the greater jet pattern, a more significant heat wave could have been in store for a bigger population.

We have already reached the 5th named storm of the tropical season, but Elsa, the former hurricane presently drifting through the southeastern United States is the first hurricane of the season, as well as the strongest storm to make landfall this year.

Elsa’s strongest appearance on land, at least in terms of wind, was last night in Key West, when the airport reported a winds approaching 50mph. The primary threat from Elsa, as with most tropical storms, was, and continues to be, heavy rain.

Flash flood advisories were out for northern Florida and south Georgia, and have now shifted to South Carolina. There were also a few isolated tornado reports, and as Elsa spins northeast, there is a tornado watch for South Carolina and surrounding areas.

Elsa has been a mild storm, so read this as a precautionary tale. It still brought flooding, strong winds and tornadoes inland. Had she taken a different course, there may he been noteworthy storm surge as well, but her path, along the course and inland in a low density part of Florida, was beneficial for local residents. All tropical storms are dangerous, including Elsa, who isn’t quite done yet. Check out the forecast for the next few days.

There is still significant weather coming for the East Coast from Elsa. There are no other areas of concern in the Atlantic, but that will change, and we will then need to continue our maritime vigilance.

We are now halfway through the year, and have now clearly defined a best forecaster so far this year. After a three way tie through May, Weatherbug had the best month in June, and Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel did not, giving them the lead as we head into the dog days of summer. Hurricane season and record breaking heat are around the corner, and meteorologists are surely around the corner, so continued forecast vigilance will be necessary.

Outlet	Forecast Wins
Weatherbug	7.66
Victoria-Weather	5.5
The Weather Channel	4.83
Accuweather	4.33
National Weather Service	2.16
Forecast.io	1.83
WeatherNation	0.66

The pattern across the country has once again stalled, and it is going to have dangerous effects in the Pacific Northwest. A severely tilted trough is holding up traffic across the country. A weakening system in the middle of the country is being propped up by a severely tilted trough, which in turn is blocking a ridge wrapping in from the west.

The strength of the ridge, and the continued entrenchment of the ridge are pushing temperatures to record totals. Not just for the day, or the month, but all time. Check out some of the totals from the Portland weather service office so far.

The trough is continuing to weaken in the middle of the country, which should allow the ridge out west to break down and start propagating to the east. Temperatures in Portland, which are, at the moment, sitting at 111, will start dropping after Monday, which will again hit well into the triple digits.

The summer, in particular the next few weeks, look like they will be above normal, however fortunately, the record breaking heat looks to be near it’s end. Without this particular wave to focus on, the attention will be turned to the persistent drought still smothering the west coast, and is being worsened in parts of the Pacific Northwest, no thanks to the inferno.

I am presently enjoying a vacation with my extended family in the Black Hills of western South Dakota, and we’ve had a bit of active weather in the last couple of nights. Tonight, we were in a severe thunderstorm watch, as a line of thunderstorms swept in from Wyoming and brought rain and marble sized hail to our cabin before getting a boost from the eastern slope of the Black Hills, and accelerated through Rapid City and is now preparing for a voyage through the Plains.

Last night, however, was different. An isolated thunderstorm, aided in part by the very mountain we are staying on, cropped up and stayed in the same spot for well over an hour. Here is the view from just to the north of the storm.

We were almost directly under this storm, and the radar confirmed our suspicions.

The storm did eventually expand and bring some drops of rain, but not as much as points on other faces of the mountain!

It was an interesting thing to see in action, the force of the terrain, and the structure of the storm that produced all of the wet weather to other parts of the mountain was pretty incredible.

It was 90 degrees in Minneapolis today, which is certainly a pretty warm start to June, and tomorrow and the weekend will only get hotter. Heat waves are certainly newsmakers, and in particular, they are big news when they arrive in the northern US. All this is true, and really, it’s not the most interesting part of this particular heat wave. Take a look at the forecast highs for Friday.

There is the typical hot spot in the Mojave, but otherwise, the warmest part of the country will be…. North Dakota? The interesting part of this heat wave, to me, is that it completely bypasses places to the south. The forecast high in Bismarck tomorrow is 101! Unintuitively, the forecast high in Austin tomorrow is 80, a full 20 degrees cooler. I don’t have to tell you this, but that’s not how it usually works!

Why is this going on? The answer is told in the upper air forecast. Take a look at the flow pattern forecast during the day tomorrow. I have added some arrows for your benefit.

The pattern over the US is tilted. The upper level trough over the eastern part of the US takes a westward turn and heads through the southern Plains. Forgive me, because the axis of the trough in the south is a little further north than I drew it, but the result is the same. Moisture is being drawn to the Red River Valley, and then it streams into the eastern Great Lakes, keeping the entire tract covered in clouds and rain.

Meanwhile, a ridge axis runs from the southwest towards the Upper Mississippi Valley. Remember how I noted how hot it was in the southwest? Well, that is where the air moving into the Dakotas is coming from. Combined with the scouring effect of the Rockies, the dry air can warm even more during full daylight.

When this pattern sorts itself out, the hot air won’t go anywhere, but instead of shipping off to the northeast, the moisture entering through Texas will find a route north. Until a cold front comes late next week, the heat of this weekend will become hot and humid.

It’s only June 3rd. and the summer is off to a hot, hot start in the Northern Plains.

We made it through what is historically the stormiest month of the year, and made it without many devastating headlines. Now we just need to tackle fire and hurricane season with so little bad news. This month, the best news for a forecaster belongs to The Weather Channel, who always seem to do well in the spring storm season. Kudos to them. Here is the look at the total wins for the year to date:

Outlet	Forecast Wins
Weatherbug	5.66
Victoria-Weather	5.5
The Weather Channel	4.5
Accuweather	4.33
Forecast.io	1.83
National Weather Service	1.83
WeatherNation	0.33

Large cone #tornado at 6:24 PM MDT southeast of #Kim, #Colorado yesterday. Difficult chase with terrain and road network but managed to find some high ground for this shot. Amazing chase day! #cowx #wxtwitter #StormHour @JimCantore @GarofaloWX @Wx_Max @USTornadoes @DopplerJess pic.twitter.com/l5gwoPMFX9

— Marcus Diaz (@TheTXWXchaser) May 30, 2021

There has bee quite a bit of severe weather in the last week, but it hasn’t really been a story in the news. Strong storms did a good job of avoiding large population centers, and never really threatened to move somewhere moer ominous. Any weather outbreak looks as though it will have to come at another time, as the severe weather in the Plains is going to wear itself out.

Tornadoes are common this time of year, and in the High Plains, thanks to the changing of the season, and the topographic advantages of the region. The flat, generally low density population of the region makes it popular with storm chasers, both of the academic, researching variety, and the thrill seeking tourist kind. The availability of weather data to the public has meant that May in the Plains can be thick with chasers, especially when the weather is busy. Such was the case over the last week, when tornadic activity was seen over many days from the Texas Panhandle to southwestern Nebraska.

Many videos were taken and twisters spotted, all without much harm to life or property. Call it a pretty successful chase season for all involved (except those who justifiably are a bit miffed by the idea of disaster tourism, especially in their home area).

The region, as I said, is a topographically perfect partner for storm chasing. The pattern this week set itself up nicely, and was long lived enough to encourage chasers to make the trek. There weren’t big areas of low pressure that dived into the region to make for dangerous outbreaks, like we see in the southeast or Ohio Valley when outbreaks occur there.

The Omega block over the eastern US allowed for warm, moist air to pump north on the western flank of the ridge, priming the pump for strong storms. In this environment, the tightly spinning lee troughs developing in the leeward side of the Rocky Mountains were able to trigger thunderstorms that were often well organized enough to drop tornadoes, often big, nasty photogenic ones that could be filmed from a distance.

In this case, they didn’t find any population centers, which is what everyone wants. With any luck, important information was collected. At the very least, cool images were taken.