When encountering anyone here in Minnesota lately, the generic weather conversation always steers towards how snowless the winter has been. There is also always the circumspect admonishment that we are probably really going to get hammered in March and April, but the most recent look ahead from the Climate Prediction Center suggests that time is running out for a real shot at snow.

For the end of February, and then to start March, it’s going to be well above normal in the Great Lakes. This, as we head further away from the coldest part of the year means that the time for snow is likely running out, with barely a foot having fallen over the course of the year.

While temperatures have indeed been quite warm all winter, the cold that settled in persistently did so without any moisture: there was no snow during the cold snaps. Snow on the ground would have helped temperatures remain a bit lower going forward, but that was one of the many compounding factors that worked against a normal winter around here.

We’ve been trending towards this being the warmest recorded winter in many places in the western Great Lakes, and a scorching start to March will pretty much lock that in.

Two of the larger weather stories in the last several weeks have surrounded the flash flooding and heavy rainfall in southern California, and now, this week, even yesterday, is the snow falling in New York City and surrounding areas. These are two major media centers, so they get more coverage than the tornadoes in Wisconsin or the severe weather in the southeast of the last couple of days, but they share more in common than just their notoriety.

As I have noted in the past, the thing you have heard of as the “atmospheric river” is basically the conveyor of systems that follow the jet stream. The jet doesn’t typically dig far enough south to be directed at the LA Basin, but that’s exactly what happened earlier this month, when flooding rain came to the region.

Typically, high pressure is in control in the Pacific off the coast of Southern California, which deflects the jet as well as features that would follow the jet. When the jet sinks south and well formed features can move into the Los Angeles area, they interact with the rugged terrain, and flash flooding can arise very quickly, as it did this month.

The jet actually sunk further south out west, but a southwest to northeast streak ran back north through Mexico, the Gulf and along the East Coast. The whole conveyor belt of energy is more familiar in this part of the world, but gave rise to the severe weather in the southern Plains over the weekend, and the snow that fell in the Mid-Atlantic yesterday.

We are used to systems following this jet streak pattern giving rise to nor’easters along the east coast. Because the area within the trough when the jet is angled at southern California is over the ocean, cold air doesn’t move in. On the East Coast, the trough is over the chillier continental US, which means snow on the north side of the jet streak. On this occasion, it was quite a bit of snow.

The jet responds to temperatures over land, but also currents and sea surface temperatures. This is the direct impact that El Nino and La Nina play on the weather over a season. It pays to pay attention when we are in one or the other, because of the role it plays in the jet stream course for a particular season. Knowing where the jet lies goes a long way to telling us what the pattern is going to be.

Check out the above video from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. A tightly wound area of low pressure, remnant from the activity seen in southern California earlier in the week, swept through the Western Great Lakes yesterday, feasting on very warm temperatures to trigger severe storms from Dubuque, Iowa to Lake Michigan.

The tornado did cause some damage in the Wisconsin town of Evansville, which is south of Madison. The twister will likely be rated as an EF2, based on some estimates I’ve seen, which is quite strong for an offseason storm. The damage around Evansville was enough that US-14 was closed until midday today.

The system also provided very gusty wind in the wake of it’s passage, reminiscent of some early autumn systems in this part of the country. Snow is falling in northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan today thanks to the cold air funneled in. The intensity of this clash of air masses is atypical in what should be the dead of winter, and was clearly enough to produce this tornado.

The rest of the month of February looks just as unrelenting as the first week. Temperatures will be below normal for a lot of country, especially east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, more moisture is coming for the west coast. There will naturally be immediate consequences out west, where more moisture is not needed, but also, the change in pattern indicates a pretty wild shift to get there.

We were pretty insistent on churning out forecasts to start the year, which was good, because the weather was just as active as our forecast schedule. Given the frequency of our forecasting, and the intensity of the weather this month, it was a well earned victory for our winning forecaster, The Weather Channel

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel	2.83
Victoria-Weather	1
Accuweather	0.83
National Weather Service	0.83
WeatherNation	0.5
Clime
Weatherbug

If there is any good news for this weekend storm, it is that along the coast, things are pretty quickly moving on. Sure, there is quickly falling snow in Springfield, Massachusetts, but that is hardly the snowy mess that we feared early in the week.

The storm is also carrying more momentum that it had, even as recently as Thursday when we were issuing the forecast for New York City. Dry air is already moving into the Big Apple, and even the updated forecast, calling for light snow around Gotham, now seems a bit too aggressive.

The break tomorrow will last through Monday, but even as we speak, a stronger, more organized feature is reconstituting in the southern Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, this is the GFS output.

That storm will be warmer, and won’t bring the same snow to the mid – Atlantic, but it has bad intentions for the center of the country.

This next round, with the warm air, and the inherent energy tied to it, will pose a severe weather threat for the southeastern US as well. It’s a busy week after a relatively quiet holiday season, so be careful out there as we get our first real wintry smack in the eastern US.

It was an incredible year for Victoria-Weather. We easily had the highest number of “forecast wins” on the year, but that doesn’t mean we also secured the title of forecaster of the year. That comes from consistency, which was not, unfortunately, within our bailiwick this year. Accuweather took until deep into the year to even win a forecast, but they were often near the top of the charts and eventually started getting those wins. Their stability, despite the relatively few peaks, meant they they earned the crown for 2023.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
Victoria-Weather	10.83
The Weather Channel	5.33
Clime	5.33
Accuweather	5
Weatherbug	4.5
WeatherNation	3.5
National Weather Service	2.5

Happy New Year, everyone, and I hope you continue to stop here for your weather reads!

It was a warm, rainy Christmas for the middle of the country, and just generally warm in the eastern third. The only areas that got a more traditional Christmas were in the northern High Plains and Rockies, which accounts for a very small fraction of the nation’s population. It’s all part of a month long trend, where temperatures have been warm enough that it’s inescapable that this will be the warmest December on record for a lot of places.

Temperatures to start 2024 look like they will continue to be warmer than normal, even after this first cold intrusion the country is undergoing in what seems like months. The jet is going to become established over the southern US at the same time, though, and this is going to start paying dividends, in the form of temperatures coming in line with normal, or in the southern US, cooler than normal.

The south riding jet is going to allow cool air to filter into the lower 48, but that isn’t the whole story. This jet will be strong and wavy, which means it will be active as well. An atmospheric river, so to speak. The strong areas of low pressure moving from the southwestern US and through the southern tier of states will help in keeping temperatures suppressed. To the north, where it is less likely to cloud over during the day, temperatures won’t end up on the cold side of normal. ‘

Right around normal is still awfully chilly for the northern US, so winter is going to feel more like winter. If that is too much to handle, then rest assured, things are going to get warm fro a lot of the country once again by the end of the month, according to the CPC’s forecast.

A strong area of low pressure is coming out of the Gulf of Mexico is presently leading to a slight risk of severe weather across the Florida, with wind and tornadoes possible in the Sunshine State overnight tonight. The storm will cross north Florida overnight tonight and track into the Carolina Plains by the end of the day tomorrow.

The storm will continue northward, with the center of the storm moving north through the Hudson River Valley on Monday morning, eventually arriving in Canada by nightfall. Storms will be possible tonight in Florida, as I noted, and along the Carolina coast tomorrow, with the severe threat winding down as the system smashes New York and New England.

One thing to note is the track of the storm. With these coastal storms, the warm side is to the east, the cold to the west. With the center of the storm expected to pass over New York and head northward, the entirety of New England will be in the warm sector for the storm until the heaviest of the precipitation is through. This is going to be a wind and rain event for the largest population centers.

Without a deep cold trough, the heavily accumulating snow is going to come for the Appalachians and down stream from Lake Erie. This snow will also wait until after the main thrust of the season is in the Maritimes, and will be related to the post system flow from the northwest.

The last work week of 2023 is going to be fairly unpleasant for a lot of people, and will slow down travel plans, but it could be worse. This is a strong fall like system, and not a true winter nor’easter. While travel will be slowed, it will bounce back quickly with plenty of time for the holiday.

November started off strong for Victoria-Weather, but it didn’t necessarily end that way. The top spot instead went to the most consistent member of our cohort. Clime didn’t win any individual forecasts, but was able to win the month of November.