We were light on formal forecasts in September, but that doesn’t take away from how big a weather time it was, from flooding rains to tropical storms, we covered a lot of ground. Of course, not much for the verified forecasts, but that’s fine, and it worked out well for Clime, who took the top spot for the month.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
Victoria-Weather	6.83
The Weather Channel	4.83
Clime	3.83
National Weather Service	2.5
WeatherNation	2.5
Weatherbug	2.5
Accuweather	2

In some parts of the country, the countdown to sub-freezing temperatures is on. There is already snow in the forecast for higher peaks out west. The clock is ticking for people that are still soaking up the last bits of summer like weather. The brief sojourn through autumn only brings us one place: Winter.

Temperatures are usually all over the place, even if there is a general trend to a season. Even on the warmest winters, I only remember the coldest days, for example. What really separates winters is how much snow you get through the chilly season.

The beginning of 2024 remains to be seen, but to conclude the 2023, CPC’ has the outlook for those final three months. ‘s outlook doesn’t suggest anything too out of the ordinary.

If you were here earlier, you’ll remember that the Gulf Coast was in a drought, and a sloppy fall will help that. Don’t expect a lot of major early season systems, but there will be a few, emerging in the high Plains and headed for the Great Lakes. There will be snow, but not blizzards.

This is, of course, a look at October through December. For those that aren’t ready for summer, at least in the eastern two thirds of the country, the end of September and the beginning of October are going to be notably warmer than normal.

It’s going to be a bit of a rainy weekend in Minneapolis-St. Paul this weekend. Hooray! The first batch of rain will arrive late this evening, giving way to a bit of a break tomorrow, followed by the threat for strong thunderstorms (though the heaviest storms will come south of Minnesota) on Saturday, and some lingering rain on Sunday. The area needs to be replenished, but of course, it is all coming on the weekend.

The above is satellite imagery from about 2 weeks ago, as a spiral band from Storm Daniel lashed the Libyan coast east of the Gulf of Sirte. Derna is one of the most northern points of that part of Libya, and suffered the most severe consequences of what was a virulent storm.

Daniel developed in the central Mediterranean, and started making headlines by bringing flooding rains to Greece, where Larissa, in particular, found itself underwater. This was caused by an Omega block, ridges of high pressure that orient the jet in the shape of the Greek letter Omega. This is a generally immobile pattern, and can cause short term drought beneath the ridge, and persistent rain on either side. Daniel wasn’t moving much, wobbling between the southern Balkan Peninsula and northern Libya.

The second accelerating factor was terrain of Libya in general, and the area near Derna, specifically. As you may know, Libya is dominated by the Sahara Desert. There is the Mediterranean climate in the northern coastal areas, so Derna and the other large cities of northern Libya aren’t foreign to rain, but it is pretty dry there, and significantly drier further to the south. It’s not soil that is receptive to rain falling at persistent or voluminous rates. It is prone to running off.

Pictured above is the 3d view looking north from Derna on Google Maps. There is a small river emerging from a network of canyons that cut deep into some cliffs. The entire topography of the region is set up to funnel runoff out of the desert through this canyon and out of Derna. There is a dam at the mouth of the canyon which allowed Derna to exist while also generating some electricity.

There WAS a dam, I should say. Under the onslaught of a cyclone’s worth of rain funneled through the canyon, the poorly maintained dam failed, unleashing all this water on Derna. Undoubtedly, years of dictatorial rule followed by a decade of civil unrest had led to poor civil infrastructure maintenance, and ultimately, tragedy.

As is often the case with the worst disasters, there was a perfect confluence of circumstances that made it so horrific.

There has been a little bit of positive news from the Atlantic, at least for Stateside interests. The track for Lee has turned a little bit to the right, away from New England and away from the Bay of Fundy, where it could have caused real problems. Instead, the weaker Tropical Storm Lee will land in southwestern Nova Scotia.

Surge and wind threats are lessened for the New England coast, and I’m not nearly as worried about amplified storm surge in New Brunswick, but tropical storm force winds are still going to be an issue for this area, even for parts of down-east Maine, which will get lashed by rain and tropical storm force winds, but the threat, at least in the States, will not be as severe or widespread.

Tropical storm force winds are still anticipated in the southern part of Nova Scotia and parts of coastal New Brunswick, but again, Lee is weakening, and it won’t be a hurricane making landfall in the Canadian Maritimes. The storm will make landfall around Yarmouth, Nova Scotia tomorrow morning, around 8am, CT, or 10 Atlantic time.

It’s been a long wait, and fortunately, Lee is looking like he showed his worst in the open ocean, and a bullet was almost dodged.

It seems as though we have been talking about Hurricane Lee for a while now. It feels like the storm should already have blown past Bermuda. Instead, the storm is still northeast of Puerto Rico, and won’t really kick out of this area until Wednesday. At that point, Lee will relly start to move, and we will get a little more confident on where he will eventually landfall.

Right now, though, even a week out, there is a solid cluster of models that put his landfall near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia next weekend.

Late this week, he will pass to the west of Bermuda, but spiral bands of thunderstorms will certainly swipe at the island, and heavy surf is quite likely. As he passes Bermuda, he will be weakening, and by landfall, may be a Tropical Storm.

If he landfalls as a hurricane, it is because he does so further south and west – one of those stray strands of spaghetti indicating the storm could waiver and strike New England directly. As it is right now, Lee is still a strong storm that developed rapidly. As with every hurricane season, so much depends on luck, and luckily, there is steering flow to drive Lee away from the mainland just enough. Even as storms get stronger, that reliance or hope for good fortune remains the same.

Of course, a strong tropical storm landfalling in Nova Scotia is still noteworthy and not great news. Fortunately, southern Nova Scotia is regularly battered by strong storms, though not of tropical origin, which means the area, infrastructurally, can withstand a pretty decent pummeling. Where I am concern is if the storm orients just right, heading back northeast while driving water into the Bay of Fundy. In that scenario, surge could be a issue in New Brunswick and Truro, Nova Scotia.

More remains to be seen. Where will Lee ultimately decide to go? How swiftly will he start to deteriorate upon finding cooler waters? We still have a week to find out.

It’s been a long year for Accuweather. Coming into August, they still hadn’t had a solo win on a single forecast all year. August is through, and Accuweather still hasn’t won a forecast for themselves. They tied for the win on three this month, however, and that consistency earned them the Forecaster of the Month title.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
Victoria-Weather	5.83
The Weather Channel	4.83
Clime	2.83
National Weather Service	2.5
WeatherNation	2.5
Weatherbug	2.5
Accuweather	2

We’ve reached the end of summer, and with it, the peak of hurricane season. With that in mind, expect some lighter site forecasting, and a bit more “big story” coverage for the next couple of weeks.

Lake Havasu City, Nevada

Evansville, Indiana

Hot weather is roasting the middle of the country on this Labor Day, but it’s going to break, at least in the northern part of the country thanks to a round of severe weather moving through the Upper Midwest. The peak of the heat for New England looks like it will come on Thursday of this week. Below are the highs for Thursday

By now, I’m guessing many of you have assessed the forecast ahead of Labor Day as you make your holiday weekend plans. I hope it includes a pool, cold drinks or plenty of air conditioning. Not only is it expected to be warm, but expect record breaking heat through the center of the country. Here in the Twin Cities, triple digits aren’t out of the question.

While it will be a blast furnace from Wisconsin to the Dakotas and south through the Plains, it will be much more comfortable on the coasts, except, I should note, around the DC/Baltimore area, where it’s going to be abnormally warm as well.

After the weekend, the heat will ease a little bit, but it’s still going to be danged hot, especially for the areas surrounding west Texas. Note that the heat is also going to arrive in New England and the Mid-Atlantic.

The rest of the month, after the 7th-11th looks to mostly temper. but still fairly warm. One bit of good news is that it looks wetter than normal in the Plains, which will stymie any growing drought concerns in the Plains.