Coming together

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For the last verification of 2023, all of our forecasters consolidated around the same scores for Macon. There were no trends, to speak of, really. Aside from the Thursday high, every forecast verification had some values warmer and lower than what it turned out to be. That Thursday high was a bit warmer than anyone had projected, but not by much. So with everyone appropriately circling the mark, it just came down to who was the closest the most, and there wasn’t a lot to separate the top from the bottom. Accuweather will get credit for the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Thursday – High 62, Low 43
Friday – High 50, Low 35

Grade: A-B

A mysterious verification

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Sometimes, I cause my own problems. I post something so late that the “tomorrow” of the forecast is actually the “today” of the post time. Sometimes, the issue is that the closest NWS verification facility doesn’t have a 24 hour schedule for observations. Both of these things happened in Huntsville, which made finding the information I needed to properly assess the forecast a bit more challenging. I used Huntsville International for my observations, rather than the Redstone Arsenal, which is closer to downtown, and figured out my own temporal confusions. In end the weather wasn’t particularly dynamic, and everyone assessed an early week cooldown correctly when we put together the forecast Sunday night — er, early morning on Monday. Victoria-Weather, despite our other issues, had the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday, the 18th, High 52, Low 32
Tuesday, the 19th, High 46, Low 25

Grade: B-C

Temperatures don’t dip so dramatically

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We looked at Flagstaff in the last week of November, and found that temperatures were not what we would expect when thinking of Arizona. High temperatures in northern Arizona were about what the forecasters expected, but they were off the mark when we looked at the lows. Most outlets had the low dropping into the teens, but on the 27th and 28th, they were actually only in the mid 20s. Sure, not what you expect in Arizona, but also not quite as cold as meteorologists expected. Ironically, Weatherbug, who tends to skew towards the cooler side, ended up with the best forecast on a day where things were warmer than anticipated.
Actuals: Monday November 27th, High 40, Low 26
Tuesday November 28th, High 46, Low 20

Grade: A – C

Thrown out of equilibrium

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In the transitional seasons, air masses are much more different from one another. Cold air is significantly colder than the air it replaces in the spring and fall, and not as much in the summer or winter. And because the sun angle is lower, having a few clouds can really affect the temperature more than they might in the summer. All this is to say is in the fall, you had better have your timing right. In Monroe, Michigan last month, the timing for a wave moving through as a little off. Clouds filtered in on Sunday the 19th early in the day and suppressed high temperatures. A system rising from the south central US was moving more quickly than expected, and brought not only rain but a warm front that meant temperatures ended up warmer than anticipated. All in all, it wasn’t a well spotted forecast for anyone, but Accuweather had the best temperature forecast and was one of the outlets that correctly had rain on Monday.
Actuals: Sunday, November 20th, High 44, Low 34
Monday, November 21st, .32″ of rain, High 49, Low 39

Grade: C-D

Fresh info, top forecast

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When we forecast for Logan over the weekend, I noted that some of the outlets were trending away from each other, and I suspected that it was because the model guidance updated, and some outlets jumped on the changes and others hadn’t updated their forecast yet. I presumed I had the freshest data, and if that was the case, then that was what led to Victoria-Weather’s forecast victory for Logan. The new data was cooler overnight, which was the fate that befell Logan.
Actuals: Saturday, High 51, Low 23
Sunday, High 55, Low 24

Grade: A – F

Nothing to do but watch the thermometer

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When we forecast for Sherman last week, expectations were low. It was going to be sunny with some late season warmth, and not a lot of intrigue. The biggest question was how warm would it get on Election Day, and how Accuweather has time to add notes to all their local forecasts. I still have no answer for the second question, but I can tell you it hit 86 last Tuesday, which was warmer than all forecasts. This handed the victory to the warmest forecaster, who happened to be Victoria-Weather.
Actuals: Monday – High 82, Low 63
Tuesday – High 86, Low 63

Grade: A-C

A pattern is established

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Back before Halloween, we issued a forecast in Cincinnati, in which we were ahead of a fairly active time. A failing cold front was on its way through town, and it did bring a bit of light rain. At the end of the period, we anticipated a warm front climbing to the northeast back into the Cincinnati area, which didn’t come to pass before the period was over. Well, don’t look now, but a warm front is rising through the Ohio Valley again. At least back in November, the clouds and rain will more sparse, allowing for a greater drop in temperature, which won’t be the same this time around. This lead to Victoria-Weather, forecasting cooler, winning the day.
Actuals: October 27th, .02 inches of rain, High 75, Low 62
October 28th, .-03 inches of rain, High 68, Low 54

Grade: B – C

Bring a coat!

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Temperatures were expected to be on cool side in the afternoon in Olympia, thanks to a couple of waves pumping through the Pacific Northwest. The biggest surprise of the whole deal was that temperatures last Sunday started to plummet on the evening. Temperatures were significantly cooler than expected on Sunday, which really made scores look worse than they may actually have been. WeatherNation was able to sneak in for a victory, but scores were all pretty close.
Actuals: Sunday, .01 inches of rain, High 59, Low 44
Monday – High 55, Low 45

Grade: C

Momentum

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We verified a forecast for Racine yesterday, and I will just say that the verification in Victoria could not have been more different. For one thing, it was sunny throughout the forecast period. An expected advance from a tropical storm never really happened and it was honestly pretty great through the middle of last week, just a bit more humid on Wednesday. Clime kept their momentum (ah, there is the title source) by tying Accuweather for the forecast victory.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 77, Low 44
Wednesday – High 83, Low 50

Grade: A-C

Drought busting

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We forecast for Racine, Wisconsin a couple of weeks ago, just as a soaker of a storm was going to roll in. On the 13th and 14th of the month, Racine saw a combined total of 1.9 inches of rain. Weather observers needed only look at the rainfall for those two days as well, as for the 48 hours, the high temperature was 57 and the low was 50, both occurring on the 14th. It stayed between 53 and 57 on the 13th. That’s a good sign that the clouds are smothering you, when the temperatures refuse to budge like that. Clime was the steady hand in southeast Wisconsin, earning the top forecast.
Actuals: October 13th, .76″ of rain, High 57, Low 53
October 14th, 1.14″ of rain, High 57, Low 50

Grade: A-B